Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has followed up his critique of neoliberalism with a new essay in the Sydney Morning Herald on the causes of the crisis, and the policies needed after recovery.
With one exception, his key explanations for the crisis are the same as those identified by myself and the handful of other economists [...]
Rudd’s essay is on the money
Talk to the Fabian Forum: The Global Financial Crisis: How bad will it get?
Broadcast on March 11 2009 by ABC Radio National Big Ideas
A blog member has kindly produced a transcript of the off-the-cuff talk I gave at this forum. I’ve made minor corrections to the punctuation below, but the text is otherwise as delivered on the night without speaking notes–so there are some grammatical slips. For those [...]
Steve Keen’s Debtwatch No. 33 April 2009: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Statistics
“Lies, damned lies, and statistics” is part of a phrase attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularised in the United States by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of [...]
“It’s just a flesh wound…”
It seems we’ve moved from Stanley Kubrick to John Cleese. Rory Robertson’s reply to my “Rory Robertson Designs a Car” post reminds me of one of my many favourite scenes from Monty Python, the fight between King Arthur and the Black Knight:
King Arthur: [after Arthur's cut off both of the Black Knight's arms] Look, you stupid [...]
I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events…
Several people have commented on the speech by Glenn Stevens (for international readers, Stevens is the Governor of Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia) yesterday in which he commented, inter alia, that:
“I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. This should give us cause to reflect on how hard a [...]
Always look on the bright side of … economic data?
If things are really grim, it helps to have an indefatigable nature, and there’s no doubt that RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino has that in spades—at least in the speeches he makes at public conferences. Were I being crucified, I’d like to have Ric up there with me, singing “Cheer up Brian!…”, to take my [...]
Debtwatch 27 October 08: The Failure of Central Banks
Just two years ago, Central Banks appeared triumphant. Inflation, the scourge of the 1970s and 80s, appeared dead, the financial crisis of the Tech Wreck had been contained, economies worldwide were booming, and stock markets and house prices were spiralling ever upwards.
Then along came the Subprime Crisis, and we received a rude reminder of why [...]
DebtWatch No 26 September 2008: Losing control of the margin?
Late last year on SBS News, when Stan Grant asked me which way the RBA would move rates in 2008, I replied “Up, and then down”, Stan quipped “Spoken like a true economist–an even handed answer!”–to which I replied “More down than up”.
I expected the intial rate rises because of the RBA’s focus on the [...]
Defer the RBA “Enhanced Independence” Act
Steve Keen’s DebtWatch No 22 May 2008
The Reserve Bank Amendment (Enhanced Independence) Bill 2008, which was tabled in Parliament in March, aims to give the RBA Governor and Deputy Governor “the same level of statutory independence as the Commissioner of Taxation and the Australian Statistician” (Wayne Swann, Hansard, Thursday, 20 March 2008, p. 2381).
Under the [...]
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Translators
Blogroll
- 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
- 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
- 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
- 20070314: Warning on ’silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ’shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
- 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
- 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
- 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
- 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
- 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
- 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
- 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
- ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
- Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
- Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
- Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
- Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
- Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
- Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
- Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
- Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
- First home payments hit $3000 per month
- FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
- Global House Price Crash
- House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
- Housing Affordability
- iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
- NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
- Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
- Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
- RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
- RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
- RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
- Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
- The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
- True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
- Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
- US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
- US Housing Crash Blog

