Research

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This page lists and links to my aca­d­e­mic papers. If you would like to sup­port my research, please click on this link: Research Fund­ing.

Research Financial Instability and Endogenous Money.

A mon­e­tary Min­sky model of the Great Mod­er­a­tion & the Great Reces­sion. This paper is forth­com­ing in the Jour­nal of Eco­nomic Behav­ior and Orga­ni­za­tion. The sim­u­la­tions there are  slightly mis­lead­ing since the ini­tial con­di­tions con­tained an incon­sis­tency; these have since been cor­rected to yield the same long term out­come but far less volatile ini­tial fluc­tu­a­tions. I’ll pub­lish the paper with these revised con­di­tions shortly

A model of endoge­nous credit cre­ation and a credit crunch. This paper is very tech­ni­cal and out­lines my analy­sis of a credit crunch, which shows that if that was the only prob­lem we faced, a gov­ern­ment res­cue could work, and con­trary to stan­dard mon­e­tary the­ory (a.k.a. the “money mul­ti­plier” model) it would be much bet­ter to give the gov­ern­ment money to debtors than to the banks. It also out­lines my pre­lim­i­nary mul­ti­sec­toral mon­e­tary model of pro­duc­tion. This paper was pro­duced with the finan­cial assis­tance of theP­aul Wool­ley Cen­tre for Cap­i­tal Mar­ket Dys­func­tion­al­ity at the Uni­ver­sity of Tech­nol­ogy, Syd­ney.

House­hold Debt—the final stage in an arti­fi­cially extended Ponzi Bub­ble, Aus­tralian Eco­nomic Review, Vol. 42 No. 3 Sep­tem­ber 2009, pp. 347–57. This paper shows that the growth in house­hold debt was not an equi­lib­rium response to falling inter­est rates, but a Ponzi spec­u­la­tive bub­ble whose burst­ing is caus­ing a seri­ous reces­sion. I present a model of Minsky’s “Finan­cial Insta­bil­ity Hypoth­e­sis” that includes Ponzi finance as well as pro­duc­tive invest­ment; the model gen­er­ates a Depres­sion when debt accu­mu­lated for spec­u­la­tive pur­poses over­whelms the pro­duc­tive capac­ity of the econ­omy.

The Dynam­ics of the Mon­e­tary Cir­cuit, in The Polit­i­cal Econ­omy Of Mon­e­tary Cir­cuits: Tra­di­tion And Change In Post-Key­ne­sian Eco­nom­ics, edited by Jean-François Pon­sot and Ser­gio Rossi (Pal­grave, 2009, pp. 161–187). This is a rea­son­ably acces­si­ble expla­na­tion of the tech­nique I use to derive dynamic mod­els of finance, and advo­cacy of con­tin­u­ous time meth­ods over the dis­crete time approach that dom­i­nates Post Key­ne­sian eco­nom­ics today.

Bail­ing out the Titanic with a Thim­bleEco­nomic Analy­sis and Pol­icy, Vol 39 Issue 1, pp. 3–24. Unlike most ref­er­eed aca­d­e­mic jour­nals, this one is freely acces­si­ble online. In this paper I explain why I don’t expect the bailouts to work, I present a model of a credit crunch in a pure credit econ­omy where the credit crunch alone causes a Great Depres­sion.

My PhD the­sis Eco­nomic Growth and Finan­cial Insta­bil­ity (UNSW, 1997).

Using Math­cad in Eco­nomic Analy­sis

This arti­cle, on Hearne Sci­en­tific Software’s web­site, explains my use of Math­cad for both data analy­sis and mod­el­ling.

The Non­lin­ear Dynam­ics of Debt Defla­tion. This tech­ni­cal paper gives a math­e­mat­i­cal model of Minsky’s Finan­cial Insta­bil­ity Hypoth­e­sis. It includes an extended model with a gov­ern­ment sec­tor that can con­tain the process of pri­vate debt accu­mu­la­tion, and a pre­lim­i­nary attempt to model price dynam­ics

The Non­lin­ear Eco­nom­ics of Debt Defla­tion. This tech­ni­cal paper also has a gov­ern­ment sec­tor exten­sion to the basic non-mon­e­tary Min­sky model from my 1995 paper, and shows that under some cir­cum­stances there is a bifur­ca­tion in gov­ern­ment debt when sta­bi­liz­ing an unsta­ble econ­omy: in some cir­cum­stances, both pri­vate debt and gov­ern­ment debt sta­bi­lize as a per­cent­age of GDP, but in oth­ers run­away gov­ern­ment debt is needed to sta­bi­lize pri­vate debt.

The non-con­ser­va­tion of money

The process of endoge­nous money cre­ation

The “Finan­cial Insta­bil­ity Hypoth­e­sis”

Expert Opin­ion on Ponzi Loans

Other Topics

I’ll grad­u­ally link all my aca­d­e­mic papers here, since jour­nals now seem com­fort­able about aca­d­e­mics link­ing their papers on their own web­sites.

Econo­physics

Wor­ry­ing trends in econo­physics. Mauro Gal­le­gati, Steve Keen, Thomas Lux, Paul Ormerod, (2006). “Wor­ry­ing trends in econo­physics”, Phys­ica A 370, pp. 1–6.

Marx

A Marx for Post Key­ne­sians; unpub­lished

The Mis­in­ter­pre­ta­tion of Marx’s The­ory of Value; Jour­nal of the His­tory of Eco­nomic Thought, 15 (2), Fall, 282–300

Use-value, exchange-value, and the demise of Marx’s Labour The­ory of Value; Jour­nal of the His­tory of Eco­nomic Thought, 15 (1), Spring, 107–121

Use, Value and Exchange: The Mis­in­ter­pre­ta­tion of Marx; my Mas­ters the­sis on Marx, UNSW 1990; unpub­lished

Theory of the Firm

The con­ven­tional the­ory of com­pe­ti­tion is non­sense. I explain why in Chap­ter 4 of Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics, “Size Does Mat­ter”. A more tech­ni­cal expla­na­tion is given in this paper:

Steve Keen (2004). “Dereg­u­la­tor: Judg­ment Day for Micro­eco­nom­ics”, Util­i­ties Pol­icy, 12: 109 –125

This only cov­ers the Mar­shal­lian the­ory how­ever. More detailed cri­tiques that are rel­e­vant to the Cournot model as well are pub­lished here:

Steve Keen and Rus­sell Stan­dish, (2006). “Profit Max­i­miza­tion, Indus­try Struc­ture, and Com­pe­ti­tion: A cri­tique of neo­clas­si­cal the­ory”, Phys­ica A 370: 81–85

Steve Keen and Rus­sell Stan­dish, (2010). “Debunk­ing the the­ory of the firm—a chronol­ogy”, real-world eco­nom­ics review, issue no. 53, 26 June 2010, pp. 56–94, http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue53/KeenStandish53.pdf

This paper gives a com­plete chrono­log­i­cally laid out cov­er­age of our cri­tique, from its begin­nings when writ­ing Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics to a demon­stra­tion that the Cournot-Nash equi­lib­rium is meta-unsta­ble.

Say’s Law

Nudge Nudge, Wink Wink Say No More!” in Steve Kates (ed.), Two Hun­dred Years of Say’s Law, Edward Elgar, Alder­shot, pp. 199–209.

Transna­tional cor­po­ra­tions and aggre­gate demand

The relo­ca­tion of pro­duc­tion and aggre­gate demand (Tech­ni­cal Appen­dix)