Bernanke’s recent Jackson Hole speech didn’t contain one reference to the key force driving the American economy right now: private sector deleveraging (here’s the previous year’s speech for comparison’s sake). The reason the US economy is not recovering from this crisis is because all sectors of American society took on too much debt during the [...]
What Bernanke doesn’t understand about deflation
Webinar on the Australian Economy
Broadcaster and podcaster Phil Dobbie, who amongst other roles conducts the podcasts for BNET.com, is launching a Webinar seminar series with a talk by me on the Australian economy. A webinar is an online version of a seminar at which the speaker can give a lecture (complete with slides, simulations, etc.) that up to 1,000 [...]
Giving the Bird to the Stimulus?
Peter Martin reports in The Age today that Professor Ron Bird of UTS has weighed into the debate over the Rudd stimulus package. Professor Bird claimed that the stimulus was far less important than our strong economy prior to the crisis, and the secondary effect on our exports of stimulus packages undertaken elsewhere. ”The position [...]
Bank Profits a sign of economic sickness, not health
The record $6 billion profit that the Commonwealth Bank is expected to announce today is a sign of an economy that has been taken over by Ponzi finance. Fundamentally, banks make money by creating debt, and the amount of debt we’ve been enticed into taking on is the sign of a sick economy rather than [...]
IQ Squared debate on capitalism and the planet
I’m taking part in an Intelligence Squared debate on Tuesday next week–August 10 2010–on the topic: “That only capitalism can save the planet” I’m on the Opposition side, along with the poet and novelist Kate Jennings, and former Executive Director of Greenpeace International Paul Gilding. The Government side is Economics Editor of The Sydney Morning Herald [...]
Thanks for the Manna
Chris Joye comments in his release of the recent RP Data-Rismark index that the news of a 0.7% fall in one month will be “manna from heaven for the housing market bears”. Far be it from me to disappoint him, so thanks for the manna. But what adds spice to the manna is the way [...]
Aussie house prices fall 0.7% in June 2010
The RPData-Rismark index has just been released, and it has fallen 0.7% in the month of June 2010. I’ll have more to say on this shortly, but for now I can do no better than to direct you to the Business Spectator news report of the fall: House prices fall 0.7% in June, flat in [...]
American Monetary Institute Conference Chicago Sept 30–Oct 3
The American Monetary Institute has invited me to speak at their 2010 Monetary Reform Conference, at the University Center in downtown Chicago, between September 30th and October 3rd. I have agreed, though since this is in the middle of a teaching period for me it will be a “lightning trip” to the USA–leaving Sydney on Wednesday 29th [...]
New York Debtwatch Talk: Modelling Debt Deflation
The blog now has over 5000 members, and about 40 of them crowded into a small room in the FlatIron district of New York to hear me give a talk on debt-deflation. Since I had the luxury of more time than you get at an academic conference, and an engaging and intelligent audience, I gave [...]
Are We It Yet posted
This is a “remedial” post: I have just posted “Are We It Yet?” to this site, but for some reason it was posted after the “Naked Capitalism” post below. If you’ve already read the paper I gave at the Minsky conference, then you’ve read what’s published there; the main reasons for putting it here in [...]
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TalkFinance.net
- No Secret to Gold Investing. Just Accumulate.
- Collapse Gives WAY TO A Rally
- 60 Second Market Wrap
- Is Australia Consuming the Economy to Death?
- Misguided Gratitude for Government Stimulus
- Land owners shout bingo in WA
- Housing crash would halve bank profits - fin review
- Gallup Poll Shows Consumer Spending Pullback, Consumer Confidence Levels Below Depressed 2009 Levels ; Back-to-School Sales Bust Says WSJ
- Chris Joye housing presentation - lots of data, poor interpretation
- Quick Hits: Walking Away from Boats; Philadelphia Demands $300 Blogger License Fee; Birth Rate Lowest in Century; Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders
- Technical Analysis 09/01/2010 FXCBS
- FDIC Quarterly Banking Report: "Reduced Loan-Loss Provisions Boost Earnings"; Commercial Banker Comments on Loan Loss Provisions
- Why the Great Moderation is a Great Big Lie
- Time for Bouncy Bouncy
- 60 Second Market Wrap
Translators
Blogroll
- 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
- 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
- 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
- 20070314: Warning on ‘silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ‘shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
- 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
- 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
- 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
- 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
- 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
- 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
- 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
- ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
- Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
- Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
- Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
- Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
- Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
- Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
- Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
- Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
- First home payments hit $3000 per month
- FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
- Global House Price Crash
- House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
- Housing Affordability
- iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
- NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
- Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
- Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
- RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
- RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
- RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
- Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
- The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
- True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
- Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
- US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
- US Housing Crash Blog

