Steve Keen’s Debtwatch No. 36 July 2009 It’s the Deleveraging, Stupid Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over. – Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 “The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme” Mark Twain [...]
Bernanke an Expert on the Great Depression??
Note: This post has been modified ni the light of comments that the initial version quoted Bernanke out of context. A link to this blog from a US legal advisory website the Practising Law Institute’s In Brief ( “DEFLATION IN THE REAL WORLD“) reminded me of Bernanke’s book Essays on the Great Depression, which I’ve been aware [...]
The World’s Biggest Ponzi Scheme?
Two days ago the FBI indicted Bernie Madoff, principal of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, on securities fraud. Though the case has yet to run, in the indictment the FBI reported that Madoff confessed that his was “basically a giant Ponzi Scheme” that may have lost some extremely high net worth individuals over US$50 billion. [...]
DebtWatch No 29 December 2008
What’s Really Going On? or… Why Did I See it Coming and “They” Didn’t? Part 2: The Models “But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us [...]
DebtWatch No 28 November 2008: What is Really Going On?
2nd Anniversary Issue… Why Did I See it Coming and “They” Didn’t? The financial crisis is widely accepted as having started in August 9 2007, with the BNP’s announcement that it was suspending redemptions from three of its funds that were heavily exposed to the US securitisation market (click here for the BNP August 9 [...]
Debtwatch 27 October 08: The Failure of Central Banks
Just two years ago, Central Banks appeared triumphant. Inflation, the scourge of the 1970s and 80s, appeared dead, the financial crisis of the Tech Wreck had been contained, economies worldwide were booming, and stock markets and house prices were spiralling ever upwards. Then along came the Subprime Crisis, and we received a rude reminder of [...]
SBS Dateline tonight with George Negus
George negus is interviewing me and Peter Schiff on Dateline tonight. The topic is the attempted rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and what that may mean for the global economy and Australia in particular. Dateline goes to air tonight (Wednesday) at 8.30pm. It is also accessible on the web, the day after the [...]
Debtwatch No. 25: How much worse can “It” get?
Last month closed with some far from comforting news about the state of the US housing market (sales and prices still falling), US financial institutions (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in need of rescue), Australian banks (NAB’s 90% write-down of its US CDO portfolio). Then ABS figures showed that retail sales had fallen “unexpectedly” by [...]
DebtWatch No 11 September 2007: Why didn’t they see it coming?
I expect–and hope–that the tenor of discussion at this month’s RBA Board meeting will be very different to last month’s. In August, I imagine, the community members of the Board listened sagely as the RBA’s economists explained why the risk of future inflation had risen, why this justified a “pre-emptive strike” of raising interest rates, [...]
Fascinating New York Times profile of Countrywide
The biggest lender in the USA is looking the most vulnerable, and this article gives good background as to why. Well worth a read!
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- No Secret to Gold Investing. Just Accumulate.
- Collapse Gives WAY TO A Rally
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- Is Australia Consuming the Economy to Death?
- Misguided Gratitude for Government Stimulus
- Land owners shout bingo in WA
- Housing crash would halve bank profits - fin review
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- Chris Joye housing presentation - lots of data, poor interpretation
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Translators
Blogroll
- 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
- 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
- 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
- 20070314: Warning on ‘silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ‘shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
- 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
- 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
- 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
- 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
- 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
- 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
- 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
- ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
- Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
- Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
- Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
- Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
- Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
- Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
- Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
- Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
- First home payments hit $3000 per month
- FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
- Global House Price Crash
- House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
- Housing Affordability
- iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
- NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
- Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
- Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
- RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
- RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
- RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
- Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
- The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
- True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
- Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
- US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
- US Housing Crash Blog

