China Crash: You Can’t Keep Accelerating Forever

flattr this!

As I noted in last week’s post “Is This The Great Crash Of China?”, the pre­vi­ous crash of China’s stock mar­ket in 2007 lacked the two essen­tial pre-requisites for a gen­uine cri­sis: pri­vate debt was only about 100% of GDP, and it had been rel­a­tively con­stant for the pre­vi­ous decade. This bust how­ever is the real deal, because unlike the 2007-08 crash, the essen­tial ingre­di­ents of exces­sive pri­vate debt and exces­sive growth in that debt are well and truly in place.

Click here to read the rest of this post.

Is This The Great Crash Of China?

flattr this!

China’s sec­ond stock mar­ket crash will be its first fully fledged eco­nomic crisis

China has achieved a remark­able trans­for­ma­tion in the last 30 years—something that you can only fully appre­ci­ate if, like me, you vis­ited China before that trans­for­ma­tion began. In 1981/82, I took a group of Aus­tralian jour­nal­ists on a tour of China on behalf of the Australia-China Coun­cil. The key pur­pose was to take part in a sem­i­nar with Chi­nese jour­nal­ists under the aus­pices of the “All-China Jour­nal­ists Asso­ci­a­tion”. Given the unfor­tu­nate acronym by our Chi­nese hosts of SAPS—for the “Sino-Australian Press Seminar”—it was the first sem­i­nar between Chi­nese jour­nal­ists and those of any other nation.

Good Universities and Bad Economics

flattr this!

For the next two days, I’m tak­ing part in a pecu­liarly British insti­tu­tion (and I’m start­ing to real­ize just how many pecu­liar British insti­tu­tions there are) called “Clear­ing”. This is where Uni­ver­si­ties towards the bot­tom of the sta­tus peck­ing order here in the UK offer places to stu­dents who didn’t get good enough marks to get into Uni­ver­si­ties towards the top of the peck­ing order.

Help make Minsky easier to use

flattr this!

I’ve just put A$10,000 of my own money towards improv­ing Min­sky, the Open Source pro­gram I have designed to enable econ­o­mists to cre­ate dynamic and mon­e­tary mod­els of the econ­omy. If you sup­port the work I’m doing to help eco­nom­ics escape its 19th cen­tury equi­lib­rium fetish, please con­sider also mak­ing a dona­tion to Minsky’s devel­op­ment via Dr Rus­sell Standish’s Pay­Pal account (or via direct debit, using the account details you’ll find below):

Keep Rus­sell Stan­dish on the Min­sky Project

Other Amount:

Your Email Address (and com­ment if you wish to add one) :

Death of a Great Australian: Hugh Stretton 1924–2015

flattr this!

The great poly­math and human­i­tar­ian Hugh Stret­ton died this week­end. I can do no bet­ter than to repro­duce another great Australian’s trib­ute to him.

The fol­low­ing is from Geoff Har­court.

Hugh died last Sat­ur­day at the age of 91 after a long ill­ness. I had known him since 1958 when I first came to Ade­laide where he was the much-admired Pro­fes­sor of His­tory. In later years we became firm friends, though I con­tin­ued to regard him with awe and admi­ra­tion. He was a giant intel­lect, eas­ily Australia’s most deep and pro­gres­sive thinker, and a remark­ably kind and humane man who lived up to his ideals in many prac­ti­cal ways.

Help Renegade Inc. get over the line in the next 70 hours

flattr this!

Rene­gade Inc., the media group that pro­duced the Four Horse­men doc­u­men­tary about the finan­cial cri­sis, is run­ning a Kick­starter Cam­paign to raise US$45,000 to under­write its next documentary.

Click here to go to Kick­starter and donate.

The Four Horse­men doc­u­men­tary has been an inde­pen­dent media suc­cess, with over three mil­lion views on YouTube. It has also shown at more than three hun­dred Q and A ses­sions in sev­en­teen coun­tries. Ross and Megan Ashcroft, the prin­ci­pals of Rene­gade Inc., want to pro­duce a doc­u­men­tary for the post-crisis–or rather per­ma­nent crisis–world in which we now live. They also plan to fol­low this up with an inde­pen­dent media plat­form, to give the pub­lic some­thing other than the super­fi­cial pap that dom­i­nates the media cov­er­age of eco­nom­ics, pol­i­tics and cul­ture today.

Will We Crash Again? (FT/Alphaville Presentation)

flattr this!

This is the talk I gave at the FT/Alphaville con­fer­ence in Lon­don last week. A num­ber of peo­ple asked me to send the PPT to them, and I got buried in other work and the emails are long lost in my Gmail queue. So if you’d like to down­load the pre­sen­ta­tion file, please click here. My apolo­gies to those cor­re­spon­dents to whom I haven’t replied directly.

To run the Min­sky model, down­load Min­sky from here and install it.

Time To Play Hardball Yanis

flattr this!

The Greek ref­er­en­dum has deliv­ered a stun­ning vic­tory for Syriza and its anti-austerity mes­sage. Despite the banks being closed as a result of the ECB lim­it­ing its pro­vi­sion of ban­knotes, and despite a united cho­rus of Euro­pean lead­ers warn­ing of dire con­se­quences if the No vote suc­ceeded, the Greeks have voted No in over­whelm­ing num­bers. The final result looks likely to be a 62% No to 38% Yes rejec­tion of the Troika’s terms. Syriza now has over­whelm­ing sup­port from the Greek peo­ple to oppose the Troika (a result that opin­ion polls got com­pletely wrong).

Click here to read the rest of this post.