The Finance News Network’s Lelde Smits interviewed me just before I left Australia last week: Link to the Interview.
I’ll also be giving a number of talks in Europe in the next few weeks. Follow the links below for more details:
Thursday December 5th, 5pm the Oxford PPE Society
Larry Summers’ speech at the IMF has provoked a flurry of responses from New Keynesian economists that imply that Summers has located the “Holy Grail of Macroeconomics” – and that it was a poisoned chalice.
“Secular stagnation”, Summers suggested, was the real explanation for the continuing slump, and it had been with us for long before this crisis began. Its visibility was obscured by the subprime bubble, but once that burst, it was evident.
Compare the following two statements, and see if you can guess who the speakers are, when they made these speeches, and what they announced in them:
When the hot air finally leaves this new housing bubble, its deflation will be too slow to result in a 40 per cent fall from June 2010 to June 2025…
Paul Krugman posted on a familiar topic yesterday—the failure of most inflation hawks to admit that they were wrong—and included praise for one such hawk who has indeed changed his mind and said so:
This article is the third in a series on Australia’s housing market. Read the first article here and second article here.
I’m speaking at a United Nations Environment Program conference in Bangkok next week, and giving some public talks there as well, so I’ve written my posts for the next two weeks for Business Spectator already–on the topic of Australian house prices.
My previous post on house price data from the BIS (How to spot a housing bubble before it bursts, October 15) scotched one part of the ‘No Bubble Downunder’ case: Australia is one of four countries where house prices are more than twice as high as they were in real terms in 1985 (see Figure 1).
Anyone who has been motivated to read economics for the very first time by the economic crisis that began in 2007 should have realized at least one thing: that communication between economists resembles the Tower of Babel after the confounding of tongues. Economists who speak in one tongue hear what those in another say, but completely fail to understand it—and then shout back something that is just as incomprehensible to the others’ ears.
I would love to be in the audience watching the body language at this year’s “Nobel” ceremony for economics. Robert Shiller, who is far too polite a person to make it obvious, will nonetheless at least fidget as he listens to Eugene Fama’s speech, since Fama continues to dispute that bubbles in asset prices can even be defined. Shiller, in contrast, first came to public prominence with his warnings in the early 2000s that the stock and housing markets in the States were displaying signs of “irrational exuberance”.