What next after Brexit?

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A cliché—“Expect the Unexpected”—has hap­pened. As I noted in “The Divi­sive Brexit Vote”, though I favoured Brexit, I took the opin­ion polls at face value, and expected that Britain as a whole would vote to remain in the EU. Instead, in the largest elec­toral turnout in twenty years, the UK voted 52:48 in favour of leav­ing the EU.

I’ll leave a post-mortem of the vote itself for later; the main inter­est now is what will hap­pen because of it. Many pun­dits from the Cen­ter, Left and Right opposed Brexit in the belief that eco­nomic Armaged­don for Britain and the globe would flow from it; we’ll now see how real­is­tic their fears were. I regard them as seri­ously overblown, for a num­ber of rea­sons.

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About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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  • Tim Ward

    https://twitter.com/gzibordi/status/747242697119891457

    Schultz: “gli inglesi hanno vio­lato le regole. Non è la filosofia UE che la folla possa decidere del suo des­tino”

    Schulz: “The British have vio­lated the rules. It is not the #EU phi­los­o­phy that the crowd can decide its fate”.

    https://twitter.com/Taleof2Treaties/status/747394593222762496?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Brinde­pen­dence! Enough with the Euro-Mar­tinets.

  • twowith­inthree­thati­sone

    Yes, aus­ter­ity must die, and Grace as in: 

    Gift­ing,

    abun­dance,

    mon­e­tary inter­pen­e­tra­tion via a uni­ver­sal div­i­dend,

    eco­nomic pol­icy encom­pass­ment, brack­et­ing and recog­ni­tion of the full stop point of the eco­nomic process via the imple­men­ta­tion of a defla­tion­ary dis­count to con­sumers at retail prices that in turn is rebated back to mer­chants,

    a sov­er­eign, eth­i­cal and benev­o­lent Bank­ing and mon­e­tary author­ity hier­ar­chy with poli­cies that log­i­cally align with and per­fectly reflect poli­cies that will effect both indi­vid­ual free­dom and sys­temic free flow­ing­ness,

    inte­gra­tion as in the inclu­sion and com­bi­na­tion of only truths, work­a­bil­i­ties and relevancies.…not idi­otic mere con­glom­er­a­tions of power agen­das and/or poi­son pill com­pro­mises that will result in no actual progress and con­tin­ual con­flict,

    .…must be imple­mented.

    The nat­ural philo­soph­i­cal con­cept of Grace in all of its aspects…is the new par­a­digm for eco­nom­ics and money sys­tems.

  • Bhaskara II

    Two mil­lion British peo­ple emi­grated to EU, fig­ures show’

    British fig­ures indi­cate that just as many UK cit­i­zens live in the EU as vice-versa, despite pop­u­lar per­cep­tions.

    The num­bers, cov­er­ing 2010, were put for­ward last week in a gov­ern­ment response to a par­lia­men­tary ques­tion by Matthew Oakeshott, a Lib­eral mem­ber of the House of Lords.

    Com­pared to the 2.3 mil­lion EU cit­i­zens in the UK, which includes peo­ple who came after Poland and nine other states joined the Union in 2004, British con­sular author­i­ties esti­mate that 2.2 mil­lion Britons live in the other 26 EU coun­tries, exclud­ing Croa­tia, which joined in 2013.

    A pre­vi­ous response to an Oakeshott ques­tion in Jan­u­ary said another 900 Britons live in Croa­tia, putting the net immi­gra­tion-emi­gra­tion ratio even closer to par, how­ever.

    The coun­try break­down says just over 1 mil­lion British peo­ple live in Spain.

    Other pop­u­lar des­ti­na­tions are: France (330,000); Ire­land (329,000); Ger­many (107,000); Cyprus (65,000); the Nether­lands (48,000); Greece (45,000); Por­tu­gal (39,000); and Italy (37,000).

    The gov­ern­ment reply indi­cates the real num­bers could be higher, due to “a high evi­dence of non-reg­is­tra­tion” in France, Por­tu­gal and Spain.

    Of the total, some 400,000 are British pen­sion­ers.”*

    *‘Two mil­lion British peo­ple emi­grated to EU, fig­ures show’
    https://euobserver.com/social/123066

  • Bhaskara II

    I attempted to bold the para­graph after the last bold para­graph. The soft­eare does not bold across para­graphs.

    Other pop­u­lar des­ti­na­tions are: France (330,000); Ire­land (329,000); Ger­many (107,000); Cyprus (65,000); the Nether­lands (48,000); Greece (45,000); Por­tu­gal (39,000); and Italy (37,000).

  • Bhaskara II

    After the shock result Ger­man Chan­cel­lor Angela Merkel and French Pres­i­dent Fran­cois Hol­lande led calls for the EU to reform in order to sur­vive a trau­matic divorce with Britain”

    Ger­man Chan­cel­lor Angela Merkel, who called the result a “blow” to Europe, said she would would host the lead­ers of France and Italy along with EU Pres­i­dent Don­ald Tusk in Berlin on Mon­day to try to chart a reform plan.

    “We take note of the British people’s deci­sion with regret. There is no doubt that this is a blow to Europe and to the Euro­pean uni­fi­ca­tion process,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin.”

    *‘Take a bow, Britain’
    http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-meeting-2845356-Jun2016/

  • Bhaskara II

    Clark and Daw, on the econ­omy.

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/LyePCRkq620?rel=0

  • twowith­inthree­thati­sone

    Aus­ter­ity Is Such An Obvi­ous False Doc­trine and Finan­cial Fraud
    The proof of this is the fact that if the US or Britain or any other major nation were forced into war any thought of not financ­ing it would be derided as idi­otic if not unpa­tri­otic.

    We are actu­ally set­ting our­selves up for a major war with the lin­ger­ing eco­nomic stag­na­tion we see every­where. What we need to do is not only rec­og­nize this, but also rec­og­nize that war is not the answer to our eco­nomic woes, espe­cially in an era of smart and dev­as­tat­ingly destruc­tive weaponry. In fact the way to not only pre­vent war but also to pre­vent its ten­dency is to real­ize that actu­ally free and pros­per­ous peo­ple are not nearly as inclined to be manip­u­lated by pow­ers that ben­e­fit from war…and so immi­nent indi­vid­ual eco­nomic free­dom and con­tin­u­ing sys­temic eco­nomic free flow­ing­ness are the real goals econ­o­mists must advo­cate, and a uni­ver­sal div­i­dend suf­fi­cient to enable an adult indi­vid­ual a near mid­dle class level of lifestyle cou­pled with a proac­tively price defla­tion­ary dis­count at retail sale by mer­chants that is in turn rebated back to par­tic­i­pat­ing mer­chants by a mon­e­tary authority….are the spe­cific poli­cies imme­di­ately nec­es­sary.

    Econ­o­mists need to brush past such con­sid­er­a­tions as grad­u­al­ism, wor­ries about idle­ness and ter­mi­nally habit­ual, obses­sive and short sighted “solu­tions” like employ­ment.

    Grad­u­al­ism is the dis­guise that enslav­ing forces use to live another day. As Mar­tin Luther King, Jr. said, “This is no time to engage in the lux­ury of cool­ing off or to take the tran­quil­iz­ing drug of grad­u­al­ism.” The world ever­more surely hur­tles toward increas­ing con­flict and war. The rhyming of long term eco­nomic down turn and/or stag­na­tion with humanity’s his­tory of con­flict is too obvi­ous and too unimag­in­ably destruc­tive today to fall for the idea of half mea­sures or lengthy step by step by back­ward step reform. The time to act is now, and the actions to be taken are the spe­cific poli­cies that will effect indi­vid­ual free­dom and sys­temic free flow­ing­ness!

    Man is a pur­pose dri­ven ani­mal, and leisure is not idle­ness, but rather self deter­mined and atten­tive activ­ity. Today, even in an increas­ingly oner­ous eco­nomic sys­tem bet­ter than 90% of us man­age to find suf­fi­cient pos­i­tive and con­struc­tive pur­pose to avoid incar­cer­a­tion. Instead of peo­ple being required to do some­thing the great major­ity of which they donn’t actu­ally want to do, and that because of inno­va­tion and arti­fi­cial intel­li­gence was in the very near future dis­rup­tively even less and less avail­able to them, if indi­vid­u­als were them­selves able to deter­mine what they wanted to do as work for pay or sim­ply as sev­eral of the myr­iad other worth­while pur­poses other than employment…..how much more free and joy­ous and cre­ative could such a soci­ety be! Employ­ment is not the only pur­pose of eco­nom­ics and eco­nomic the­ory, let alone of Life. Econ­o­mists and the other lead­ers within nations must work together to help accul­tur­ate indi­vid­u­als to their true free­dom of choice of life’s pur­poses which will broaden their energy of hope, com­pas­sion and cre­ativ­ity instead of squash­ing same into a failed exper­i­ment like homo eco­nom­i­cus.

    c copy­right

    06/29/2016