There is a handful of people around the world whose work I respect because it intelligently addresses facets of our current predicament that I don’t.
The economic and demographic analyst Harry Dent is one of those people.
Harry uses empirical data about consumption levels and population growth to accurately predict economic trends. A person’s consumption patterns change as they age, so information on the rate of growth of population and its age characteristics can be used to predict what consumption will probably be of a given commodity some years in the future.
Of course this has to be combined with other data—about national income levels, etc.—but it is a reliable guide that Harry has used over the years to anticipate such things as the Japanese slowdown when other people were predicting a continuing boom there.
Harry explains some application of his approach in this YouTube video—one example I like is why the age 42 is the peak age for buying potato chips. It’s because the median 42 year old male has a 14 year old child…
Demographics aren’t part of my current modeling because, in a nutshell, they would swamp my debt dynamics. However Harry’s work does take the levels of debt (and its demographic distribution of course) into account, so we find ourselves very much on the same wavelength.
Harry is coming out to Australia very shortly, giving talks in Sydney from October 11th-13th, and in Brisbane on the 14th-16th. He’s speaking at the sort of wealth preservation or making seminar that is not my usual cup of tea, but since Harry’s part of it, I’m happy to bring it to the attention of Debtwatch readers.
For more information, check out this website:
Harry will also be out here next week, so keep an eye out for him on various news programs.
The following information on Harry was supplied by the “Secure the Future” event organisers.
About Harry Dent
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is a highly regarded long range economic forecaster and financial newsletter writer. Harry Dent bases much of his analysis on demographics and other predictable cycles in the economy which are often overlooked by mainstream economists.
Dent received his B.A. from the University of South Carolina, where he graduated #1 in his class. He earned an MBA from the Harvard Business School as a Baker Scholar.
Dents economic newsletter reviews the global economy through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets. He has written seven books, of which two recent ones have been bestsellers in Australia. His last book also appeared on the New York Times Best Seller List.
Here are his books to date:
- The Great Depression Ahead (2009)
- The Next Great Bubble Boom (2006)
- The Roaring 2000s Investor (1999)
- The Roaring 2000s (1998)
- The Great Jobs Ahead (1995)
- The Great Boom Ahead (1993)
- Our Power to Predict (1989)
Harry Dent first rose to prominence in 1989 when he publicly announced in his first book’ Our Power to Predict’ that — contrary to mainstream economic views — Japan was about to enter a long term deflation of stocks and real estate. By the early 1990’s his predictions of the Japanese economy were realized and the connection he made between demographics and economics began to gain serious credibility.
Harry Dent went on to predict the great boom of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s in his 1993 book ‘The Great Boom Ahead’ and in the late 1990’s also began warning of a great bust, to occur between 2008- 2012.
The 2008 GFC materialized almost on cue and in 2009 Harry Dent released his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead, which met with critical acclaim and appeared on the New York Times Bestseller List.
In his latest book “The Great Crash Ahead” ( to be released in Australia October 2011) he outlines why government stimulus is doomed to failure and the economic havoc that lies ahead.
Dent regularly lends his economic expertise to the media on television, in print, and on the radio, and is sought after as a panelist and speaker for international forums around the world.
He is a regular commentator on Fox Business News, He has appeared on “Good Morning America”, PBS, CNBC, CNN/FN, and has been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, US News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, American Demographics and Omni.
Harry Dent’s view on Australia
Harry Dent has said that if there was one country in the world he would place his money in the looming financial crisis, it would be Australia.
However, he also says that many of the current strengths need to be taken advantage of now – for example, the current strength of the $AUD will not endure long term and it will settle back to around 0.80 to the USD.
He also has urgent warnings for Australians;
Do not be complacent in the face of the world’s economic woes
Beware of the current bubble in precious metals
Australian property prices and stock market will fall, in line with a long term global deflation that has already started to take hold around the world.
Harry Dent believes that the world is entering a long term deflation and deleveraging of debts is the only solution to this stage of the economic cycle. No amount of Government stimulus will reverse this situation and he believes particularly that private debt is too high and must come down.
He also states that traditional ‘buy and hold’ investment strategies (such as negative gearing) are not likely to work in a deflationary environment and equally, investments in precious metals are not safe havens during deflation.
Harry Dent sees the new emerging super economies will be in India and Asia and that given Australia’s proximity and relationship to Asia, we are a country blessed to prosper in the years ahead.
He is coming to Australia to present his findings, gathered over the last 23 years, in order to help every day Australians transition into the new Global Economy.