My Walk to Mt Kosciuszko is no longer a solitary affair: at last count, I will have a dozen companions for the entire distance, and another 16 joining me for at least one day.
One of those coming for the entire trip is the Commentary Editor from Business Spectator, Rob Burgess. Rob will report from and on the Walk on a daily basis, covering it both as a news story, and as the basis for a discussion of the wider issues facing business and economics in the uncharted terrain of the supposedly ‘post-GFC’ world.
The others joining me on the trek are doing so not just for the scenery, but because they too believe that Australia’s economic policy has become beholden to maintaining house prices at unsustainable levels. Despite government rhetoric (and some action) about improving home affordability, the First Home Vendors Boost did far more to make houses more unaffordable than the government’s minor actions in the opposite direction. The other walkers are joining me to bring attention to the absurdity of managing the Australian economy by making it impossible for people to afford houses in their own country.
But though The Walk will have a political protest at its core, it is not party partisan: our call here is “A Plague on Both Your Houses”. Whatever else might change if Tony replaces Kevin, one thing that won’t change is a sky-high house price policy, since both sides of politics in Canberra (not to mention the commercial Banks and their economists) have become convinced that the major reason the GFC occurred was that house prices fell.
This is true in the same sense that jumping off a cliff is painless—it’s hitting the ground at its bottom that hurts. The real cause of the GFC wasn’t falling house prices per se, but the mortgage debt that drove them higher as households took part in a speculative bubble. The rising debt level was, in effect, climbing the mountain in the first place: deleveraging was jumping off it.
The only way to prevent a financial crisis is not to climb the mountain in the first place: to stop debt being taken on for speculative reasons. But instead politicians the world over encouraged households to do precisely that, in the misguided belief that financial engineering was a road to wealth. Instead, it was the road to debt penury.
Once that debt has been accumulated, trying to stop house prices falling is like keeping Wily Coyote stationary in midair after he’s fallen off a cliff with an anvil attached to his legs: he’ll stay there for a moment, but after a while, it’s “Hello Terra Firma”.
House prices rose in America and the rest of the OECD because households took on bucketloads of mortgage debt, and they fell because households stopped taking on more debt. The fall in house prices was a symptom of households ending the leveraging game: it was coincident with the crisis, it made it worse because the collapse in house prices and the rise in insolvencies made banks insolvent, but the real problem was that households had got into too much debt.
So how does Australia keep house prices high? By encouraging households to get into yet more debt. The next chart shows what happened to the household debt ratios (both to disposable income and to GDP) before and after the First Home Vendors Boost.

The rise against GDP is far more dramatic than against household disposable income because other government policies—the stimulus package itself and the RBA’s 4% cut in interest rates—boosted disposable income dramatically last year (but even so, mortgage debt is now a higher proportion of household disposable income than before the GFC). The Boost-inspired house price bubble was financed by households adding another 6% of GDP to their already unprecedented debt burden, when prior to The Boost they were on track to reduce mortgage debt by about 3% of GDP in 2009.
We’ve avoided hitting the ground of deleveraging by climbing to a higher cliff.






March 26th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
The attached figure shows aggregate US home equity falling from 80+% before 1952 to
40-% in 2009, meaning that , whereas the aggregate homeowner carried less than 20% debt on the home, it is now 60%, ie., 3 times the interest payments.
March 26th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Great article yet again Steve.. The question remains, how high can we climb? How close is Australia’s current household debt burden to that of the USA prior to the sub-prime fallout?
March 26th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
Hello Steve.
I also intend of joining you. Since I am in carer burnout, I don’t think I will be running with you. I would like to see you off from Canberra, join you on various legs and be there at the top of Mt Kosciuszko as you arrive. I will be bringing my camcorder and SLR camera and will document your walk. I not sure how I will go from an advance point and join you as yet. Need to do some planning.
March 26th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
Excellent post. Your bearish (well reasoned) views on housing are definitely gaining traction. Adele Ferguson’s piece in today’s Age cites a Colmar Brunton survey that found that 60 per cent of investors believe that Australia has a property bubble. Of that group 41% think it’s growing now 19% think that its been going since 2000 and 40% think there’s a housing shortage. Hopefully the publicity you generate via Rob Burgess will wake up that remaining 40%.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/australias-property-bubble-its-here-20100324-qwi1.html
March 26th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
Oh my, the unraveling begins.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anW3hAG0Zw5k&pos=1
“JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG were among more than a dozen Wall Street firms involved in a conspiracy to pay below-market interest rates to U.S. state and local governments on investments, according to documents filed in a U.S. Justice Department criminal antitrust case.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aVYxPZ56vjys
“More than half of U.S. borrowers who received loan modifications on delinquent mortgages defaulted again after nine months, according to a federal report.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aHNI.d7R6uVU
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers today that the U.S. government’s budget outlook is “somewhat dark” and Congress needs to agree on a plan to reduce the deficit.”
March 26th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
Hello,
Great article as usual.
I wonder, do we think this part….
Once that debt has been accumulated, trying to stop house prices falling is like keeping Wily Coyote stationary in midair after he’s fallen off a cliff with an anvil attached to his legs: he’ll stay there for a moment, but after a while, it’s “Hello Terra Firma”.
…is inevitable, now in australia given current economic reality. For example the govt through it policies appears to be successful in keeping house prices high. This combined with real estate spin doctors manipulating the headlines.
So i wonder is it inevitable ? Could not the current belief keep prices at a (not rising) high platue long enough for the rest of the world economies to recover.
It seems to me australia can keep riding high on the back of china for a good long while, years more in fact, combine that with foreign investors buying up australian property.
As much as i hate the idea, this is what i see happening, unless we see come sort of conflict between usa and china, or something like that.
March 26th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
WR #1
The interesting thing about that chart is that it is implying that that system wide LVR’s were approx. 40% in 2006 just before their bubble burst. That is, across the board they had 60% equity in their market.
C Joye has been banging on how Australia is different and our housing market is safe because we have a system wide LVR of 50% with 50% equity.
March 27th, 2010 at 7:47 am
Spooky2009, I think it is inevitable. Public opinion has clearly turned. Not only is the public more wary of the housing boom, but new home approvals are declining and the banks have taken action to mitigate lending risk. Both the CBA and Westpac are asking that borrowers increase the amount of equity they put into a home purchase when they issue a loan. In the media we have seen the spruikers roll out their more absurd headlines, all appeared at the same time so I suspect they were driven by a media release from some element of the realty industry. Man I don’t that how the ACCC can ignore this crap. Take the following article which appeared in tandem in news corp media in varius Australian cities:
In Sydney
http://www.news.com.au/money/property/sydney-property-prices-set-to-double/story-e6frfmd0-1225843302974:
In Perth
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/average-perth-house-to-cost-1million-in-10-years/story-e6frg13u-1225843172776
and there were more in other news media. I saw an article about Melbourne home prices reaching a million but couldn’t locate it online.
But read the reader’s comments on these articles and most scathingly skeptical. Still some people will be duped. They are usually the youngest and most inexperienced. There is nothing more insidious than vested interest disguised as research or expert economic commentary. I wish the ACCC would grow a pair and go after these creeps. But it has the roar of mouse and the bite of hamster.
March 27th, 2010 at 7:54 am
Opps . made a proofo omitted loan
Spooky2009, I think it is inevitable. Public opinion has clearly turned. Not only is the public more wary of the housing boom, but new home approvals are declining and the banks have taken action to mitigate lending risk.
March 27th, 2010 at 8:55 am
Mainstream media comments on Australian housing prices are much like those in America in 2004. A boom that could last a 1000 years, just ignore the regulatory problems, the unsustainable flows of capital, federal deficit and trade deficit. All that has happened is that in America they had replaced the sharemarket bubble with a housing bubble. We’ve replaced a housing bubble with another housing bubble.
On the political aspect, our system encourages major parties to pander to swinging voters, although the housing bubble has made a lot of people happy. Essentially if they don’t care then the it is unlikely that a government will be elected on that basis. Instead governments are elected on their ability to create a short term illusion of wealth.
March 27th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Just as Australia dodged a recession, not through anything clever that it did, but solely due to it’s ties to China, a doubling in house prices is also on the cards for the same reason.
The thing to do is figure out how to benefit from it.
Foreign buyers inflating market
RESERVE Bank governor Glenn Stevens says foreign buyers are a factor in rising house prices.
Mr Stevens said the bank was monitoring how much the federal government’s decision last March to relax its rules on foreigners owning property had contributed to surging prices for housing.
He said the role of foreign purchases was ”an important one and it’s one we’re giving some attention to”.
The bank has raised official interest rates four times in five meetings, with rising house prices helping to tip its hand at its meeting this month.
The Age has reported on a trend of overseas investors buying Melbourne real estate to safeguard wealth and advance hopes of migration.
Treasurer Wayne Swan eased restrictions for those on temporary visas, such as business owners and foreign students, to allow them to buy any home to live in, land to build on or new dwelling for investment purposes.
Agency Marshall White says buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong kick-started Melbourne’s prestige property market last year and still account for a third of its sales.
Mandarin-speaking sales executive Michael Liu, who was hired by the agency to deal with overseas buyers, said a few streets in the eastern suburbs of Kew and Balwyn were now 80 per cent Chinese-owned.
”They want to send their children to the best schools and think property here is cheap compared to the big cities in China, where you don’t get freehold ownership over land, just a 99-year lease.”
March 27th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
burrah,
The Government must be in the pockets of the property spruikers. Not sooner the First Home Vendor’s Boost expires, the foreign investment boost kicks in. It all seems to have been so beautifully synchronized. In hindsight, we should have seen it coming. In late 2008, Chris Bowen foreshadowed what will happen:
http://assistant.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2008/107.htm&pageID=003&min=ceb&Year=&DocType=
He said: “The changes will streamline and update foreign investment screening for residential real estate acquisitions enhancing flexibility in the market, and reducing compliance costs for temporary residents and the construction industry.” The changes are needed because: “”Residential real estate comprises more than 92 per cent of applications received each year by the Foreign Investment Review Board.”
You can see what did happened last year from the new document on Australia’s Foreign Investment Policy [September 2009]
http://www.firb.gov.au/content/policy.asp
The two changes most relevant for residential real estate are concerned new and second-hand dwellings in Paragraph 25 and 29.
25. There are no restrictions on the number of such dwellings in a new development which may be sold to foreign persons, provided that the developer markets the dwellings locally as well as overseas (that is, the dwellings cannot be marketed exclusively overseas).
29. Foreign persons who are temporary residents in Australia do not require approval to acquire a second-hand dwelling which is to be used as their principal place of residence.
So the government is not content with foreign debt (through capital import by major banks) to fuel the property bubble, it facilitated foreign equity to buy directly in the property market. Australia is a small open economy by world standards. With free capital flow, both debt and equity, the Chinese property bubble is now attached to the Australian property bubble and the Chinese bubble is far worse, which means the Australian bubble is likely to get just as bad. See an account of the Chinese bubble here:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2010/03/15/time-on-chinas-property-bubble/
Australian had record immigration at around 300,000 last year. It is set to increase if the foreigners have already got residential addresses here. What is Glen Stevens going to do, just watching? Many Australians are in danger of becoming renters paying rents to rich immigrants or foreign landlords.
March 27th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Lyonwiss you are right about a possible 2 strata society: renters and landlords. The issue of foreign buyers is real but may be overstated in terms of effect so far.
The Gvt seems to have a played a simple status quo strategy following the GFC which entailed making decisions and deals with unintended consequences. In housing it has created a larger bubble but also in other sectors of Gvt policy, NBN for instance, it highlight intellectual inability compounded by political ineptness.
It is interesting that in the last 3 months the word ‘bubble’ has entered the public debate where before it was only used by sceptics, such as read this forum. The comments on property by people on MSM sites, and feelings of missing out all together, suggest political blowback this year. On a related issue, some internal polls suggest the failed ETS has put two senior ministers in perilous positions as their electorates seek alternatives.
March 27th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
To be honest, I hate the idea that this bubble will only deflate with a burst.
This will be painful to many. Including the fools like me who don’t have a house, never will, and barely survive with things as they are.
Unfortunately, reality never asked my opinion. But at least I can point a finger at those clowns who are responsible for this. And if there is a god, he knows I will.
That’s why I’ll be there.
March 28th, 2010 at 1:37 am
@Marco2 14
“To be honest, I hate the idea that this bubble will only deflate with a burst.”
Attempt to see some good in this.
“This will be painful to many. Including the fools like me who don’t have a house, never will, and barely survive with things as they are.”
Why do you call yourself a fool?
I don’t have a house but one day I will. Our current rent is $425 weekly and is 57% of our fortnightly income. Statistically my family lives in poverty. The way I have survived is to bulk buying over many years and have saved thousands in the process. Now that I have cash flow, I can now do many things.
“Unfortunately, reality never asked my opinion.”
What is reality? A wise person said to me many years ago that we make Choice-less Choices.
“But at least I can point a finger at those clowns who are responsible for this.”
We have consented to our current state of servitude. They have chosen the life of greed and low emotional maturity. Soon they will be pointing their fingers at each other. Just note who is pointing.
“And if there is a god, he knows I will.”
“That’s why I’ll be there.”
Here, not there.
March 28th, 2010 at 2:00 am
@noah cross 13
“It is interesting that in the last 3 months the word ‘bubble’ has entered the public debate where before it was only used by sceptics, such as read this forum. The comments on property by people on MSM sites, and feelings of missing out all together, suggest political blowback this year. On a related issue, some internal polls suggest the failed ETS has put two senior ministers in perilous positions as their electorates seek alternatives.”
The political blow back began last year (features Barnaby Joyce).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KBsfSGX828
When I rang up my local Labor member office, I was recited a response that seem to be from a prepared script. The other parties I contacted seem to have been bombardment by phone calls. Within two days, Malcolm Turnball was replaced by Tony Abbbot and the ETS was stopped, to be debated again this year.
Here are two trends.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=housing+bubble
http://www.google.com/trends?q=debt+deflation
Now look what country and cites shows on top with debt deflation. How about this one. It much like for debt deflation.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Steve+Keen
March 28th, 2010 at 7:28 am
Lyonwiss #12,
Re FIRB, who was it… again… out there getting mercilessly attacked by the Govt, and smeared as some kind of politically-incorrect redneck Sinophobe by the MSM, for daring to protest the FIRB changes, and speak publicly about threats to our sovereignty?
http://barnabyjoyce.com.au/Issues/Thisweekinpolitics/tabid/56/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/926/FIRB-CHANGES-AUSTRALIAS-SOVEREIGNTY-AT-RISK.aspx
Alan #15,
“We have consented to our current state of servitude. They have chosen the life of greed and low emotional maturity.”
100% agreed. A sage post. Look forward to meeting you on the walk.
March 28th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
@ AlanGresley #15
Thanks for the comments, mate.
“Why do you call yourself a fool?”
I believe most of us have been taken for a ride, for a long, long time.
But I can’t speak for anyone else; thus, I limit my admission to myself.
It’s up to all of us to reflect whether that description fits them personally.
“Soon they will be pointing their fingers at each other. Just note who is pointing.”
This is an accurate statement, if there ever was one. The Romans used to say that success has many fathers; failure is an orphan (or something to the effect).
“Here, not there.”
Here or there, it doesn’t matter. I mean I will be at the start of the walk.
March 28th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
BarnabyIsRight.com #17
You are right of course or more precisely Barnaby Joyce (cruelly treated politically) is right in raising the issue on the over-dependence on foreign capital, because the potential loss of sovereignty. The government makes the mistake of thinking that private debt is private matter between consenting adults. So long as the government is in a sound fiscal position the efficient market can look after itself.
The global financial crisis has proved that this view of public-private distinction is a serious mistake, because massive amounts of private debt from financial system failures got transferred onto the balance sheets of governments around the world. If you are over-dependent on foreign capital (or more precisely non-sovereign capital) in the case of the PIIGS countries, someone else like the ECB or the IMF is going to tell the debtor countries what they can or cannot do: a loss of self-determination.
The government and the RBA are quite incompetent on real-world economics. They consistently justify their naivety by saying (in many speeches) rising debt does not matter, because there are rising assets, leading to growing net asset or equity positions. The serious mistakes are (1) in ignoring the differences in risk between debt and equity and (2) in assuming asset values are reasonably priced (efficient markets again).
Debt changes relatively slowly even in real terms and hangs around your neck like a noose for as long as it is there. Asset values can change very rapidly, particularly in crashes and if that happens you can suddenly become insolvent and bankrupt, regardless of your initially positive equity position (however large). What matters is not your net asset position, rather it is the debt/equity ratio. The more volatile your assets are, the lower the debt/equity ratio has to be to avoid insolvency.
Australian households in aggregate have increased their debt/equity ratio from 8.7 percent over 20 years to 40 percent in 2008, increasing debt by over six times in real dollar terms. The statistics understates the risk for most Australians, because the numbers are averaged over many wealthy individuals who have a lot of assets and no debt.
The housing bubble on which much of the assets are priced is unsustainable in the long-term, being inflated and manipulated by many different temporary tricks. Whatever is unsustainable must eventually stop and the longer it keep going the bigger the collapse.
Just as a wild guess, Steve Keen’s prediction may well be self-fulfilling in the sense that in trying to prevent a collapse which might only have been minus 20 per cent (say) a few years ago, all the government manipulations have done is to make a bigger collapse more likely in the future. When that happens Australian sovereignty is at risk: China might well dictate which mines we must to sell to them.
March 28th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
I believe that some of the people high in the Labor party hierarchy may still genuinely believe that high house prices are good and that free market works that way. This is what they have been taught… and they even claim that this is Keynesian.
I have never spoken to any of the luminaries so I may be wrong but what they are doing is to some extent politically suicidal. They have managed to take full responsibility for the fiscal mismanagement of the John Howard’s era which directly led to the bubble. (True, the foundations for the bubble had been laid by Mr Keating).
This is what they should do (the comment applies to the British market, they have recently chosen to stimulate it anyway):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2009/oct/30/house-prices-property-bubble
“The aim of government policy should be to stabilise house prices at levels much below the market peak of 2007, rather than reinflate them. In any case, economic and financial reality will probably reassert itself. Britain’s property market fell much less than many expected, and the recovery is at best fragile.”
Australian market even inched higher.
When the bubble bursts in Australia it will be the Kevin Rudd’s First Home Owner Grant’s bubble. If it bursts in 2010 we will have to watch Tony Abbott’s rants for at least six years.
We truly deserve that and I may start taking testosterone shots to look like him…
March 28th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
“When that happens Australian sovereignty is at risk: China might well dictate which mines we must to sell to them.”
I hope that their own bubble bursts before our bubble. But I agree with you – the risk is substantial. It is better to have a conservative nationalist like Menzies in power at that time rather than people who believe in political correctness and will indeed sell our mines or are plainly naive like Paul Keating in regards to our foreign partners.
In the end we can always do what the Argentinians did.
March 28th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
The RBA claims that individual net household wealth now stands at a staggering $610,000.
Does anyone know what formulae the RBA uses to give rise to such a figure. Considering the amount of private (household) debt one would think that maybe the $610,000 should have a negative sign in front of it.
March 28th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
ak,
By way of a correction to my previous post #19, the household debt/equity ratio was typed incorrectly at 40 per cent. it is actually about 24 per cent based on a debt to asset ratio of about 19.5 percent. The actual reference is here:
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/C443436A5DEA4C4ECA2575830015EE48/$File/41020_householddebt.pdf
The basic message in that post does not change. The basic question is what is the real source of property bubble re-inflation around the world?
Again incompetent policy making by governments and central banks. The zero interest rate policy (ZIP) and printing money in many countries: Japan, US etc. have caused inflation, not consumer price inflation but asset price inflation, specifically property price inflation as well as stock price inflation.
For two decades, ZIP had not really revived the real Japanese economy, but merely exported inflation through the yen-carry trade by asset speculation of investment banks. Ben Bernanke lacks the imagination to see that like Japan ZIP is not reviving the real US economy, but instead also exporting asset price inflation around the world. The relative strength of the US dollar is the evidence.
March 28th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
Analysis by Andy Xie-
Frayed String for China’s Property Balloon
http://english.caing.com/2010-03-22/100128789.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+creditwritedownsnews+%28Credit+Writedowns%27+News+Feed%29
Australia’ bubble – by Chinese standards not even worth the name:
“The price-to-income ratio, a measure of housing affordability, is routinely above 20 in major cities, which means an average Chinese citizen would spend his or her entire income for 20 years to buy an average-priced property.”
His conclusion is disturbing:
“The bubble can continue because China’s banking system has plenty of liquidity, partly thanks to hot money and because governments have many levers to channel bank liquidity into the market. But the longer the bubble lasts, the more damage it will do to the economy.”
Could almost be said of Australia. Our bubble and theirs are linked. The Federal Gvt is loosing grip, again, mostly in unintended consequences. As has been suggested over the Gvt’s ISP filter program, we could always outsource it to China, or to make it easier and shorten the transition period, just become a province.
March 28th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
Steve,
Your maturity and self control is an inspiration, I am very glad to see you now refer to your actions as a political protest. I wish I could walk with you but my employment situation will not allow it.
The GFC pulled a lot of skeletons out of the closet, we used to see councils maintain infrastructure – streets, water, sewerage and policy. Now we see councils building toll roads, pushing the infrastructure costs onto developers and losing money on high risk investments.
When I discuss the absurdity of the housing market with people they look at me cross eyed, as to say.. high risk means high returns, wake up! They forget that risk has a downside. When I hear of councils losing money they invested I can only wonder why this money wasn’t put to the use it was supposed to be, it is not like the income stream of rates is unpredictible, or defficent!
I felt I was the only person feeling this way in 2003, now in 2010 I stand tall with people like yourself. I see areas like Taren Point in Sydney that have not had any market price growth since then, like Japan, while we see fingered and subdued inflation rates cutting into our pay rises and essential funding to institutions such as universities, when we all know our rents, grocery and fuel bills double.
Keep up the good work, I’ll be with you every step of the way in spirit.
Will you sell some t-shirts, even on cafepress? I would like to support your walk.
Faithfully,
Duncan.
March 28th, 2010 at 7:42 pm
Unless I see hard data I am not convinced that citizens of the PRC (not “our” Australian Chinese who are no different to anyone) are flooding our Real Estate market with freshly created Chinese credit money. This does not mean of course that foreign investors are not affecting the prices of the upper segment of the market (beachfront houses etc).
The reason why I’m sceptical is because I didn’t see any dramatic changes in our current account deficit. We haven’t got data for the March 2010 quarter yet but some trends should have been seen already on http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5302.0Main%20Features4Dec%202009?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5302.0&issue=Dec%202009&num=&view=
in the December quarter of 2009.
“Direct investment recorded a net inflow of $7.7b in the December quarter 2009, an increase of $3.8b from the net inflow of $3.9b in the September quarter 2009 where:
direct investment liabilities recorded an inflow of $13.8b, an increase of $4.6b on the inflow of $9.2b in the September quarter 2009
direct investment assets recorded an outflow of $6.1b, an increase of $0.8b on the outflow of $5.3b in the September quarter 2009.”
We have to keep in mind that the most of the investment was in the mining sector. I hope that I haven’t misinterpreted the data so please feel free to correct me.
The total volume of mortgage-financed housing committments was AUD21bln in January 2010
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyTopic/05DBCE56402EC566CA25723D000F2999?OpenDocument
Unless something dramatic happened in January 2010 I wouldn’t say that these figures suggest that the most of houses are bought by foreign citizens. (The actual data will be only publicly available in more than a year time).
I believe that real estate spruikers may have interest in creating illusion that we are flooded with Chinese money. The upper segment of the market is mostly unaffected by costs of construction and land (determined by greedy Landcom in NSW). The supply and demand are slightly affected by other segments of the market but rising prices of beachfront properties may help to convince that all the prices are going up.
To me beachfront properties are more like tulips. Let the Chinese have one…
March 28th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
noah cross,
(I am sorry to anyone that this is off-topic but in my opinion the issue of freedom of speech is too important to be ignored).
I fully share your concern about the government censorship of the Internet. Please read my comment there:
http://www.efa.org.au/2010/03/24/imagining-a-meeting-between-senator-conroy-and-efa/comment-page-1/#comment-2082
I have made a substantial donation to EFA and contacted one of the Liberal politicians in the context of blocking the shameful proposal in the Senate. I urge anybody who reads this forum (uses the Internet to discuss social and political issues) to do the same as our freedom of speech is at stake.
Introducing the filter is not about fighting perverts who want to access child porn. This is playing dirty politics with difficult to predict side effects.
Some pressure from the USA may also help as Internet filtering may be introduced in Australia at the very same time when the American administration pushes the Chinese government to relax the censorship there. For example if a local American Democratic Representative or Senator writes a letter to Kevin this may have a very chilling effect on Senator Conroy…
It is yet to be seen whether the Coalition senators will be brave enough to derail the bill but this is more about adhering to principles of civil liberties than looking for short time political gains. I may have some hope.
http://www.joehockey.com/mediaHub/nprDetail.aspx?prID=915
Lyonwiss,
I agree with your analysis. I would only add that low interest rates didn’t result in CPI inflation because of globalisation and cheap cargo arriving from China. Easy money financed asset bubbles exactly as you stated. Whether higher interest rates would have stopped that process – I don’t know. Certainly interest rates about 15-20% ( http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Interest-Rate.aspx?Symbol=PLN ) would have done the job but this would have strangled any economy.
In my opinion a much more fundamental reform is required what includes curbing leveraged speculation and changes to the taxation. But our society is not ready yet for any of these reforms. We have to feel the pain first to wake up from the state of hypnosis.
March 28th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
He sees foreign bubbles…
Alan Greenspan Discusses The Fed’s Inability To See Bubbles, Is Confident There Is A “Bubble Waiting To Burst In China”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/alan-greenspan-discusses-feds-inability-see-bubbles-confident-there-bubble-waiting-burst-chi?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
…still no wiser, no smarter.
ak – re: foreign investors in housing in Australia. A friend of mine has 650K to invest in Sydney property from his partner’s Malaysian father. 3 months ago that was good – now it has slipped to be median in the Sydney market. Seeing sq metre prices rise $1000 in a year he now sees how bad the bubble is.
March 28th, 2010 at 11:12 pm
I posted this somewhere else, but it appears to fit in with some of the sentiments expressed here. I believe government intervention, be it relaxation of foreign investment or FHOG, will continue the residential real estate bubble for a while, so here follows a post I transferred to this blog.
I’ve got a mate at work who believed that the residential real estate market will fall , as Steve says, because of the huge debt load. But he now believes the Fannie and Freddie example of the US will be repeated here, ie providing loans to whoever applies with little credit rating and the government bank rolling the whole lot. This appears to have been what stopped the continued fall in house prices in the US.
He now has a new hypothesis. That once so many people become non-home owners (due to excessive pricing)in Australia, that such non-homeownwers form a majority voting block, some innovative pollie will promise cheap housing to all and sundry and start massive building campaigns to deliver. Financed by removing all the tax breaks for negative gearing (currently worth around $10 billion) and removing the 50% CGT discount.
He believes this will culminate with the baby boomers cashing in their “investment” properties, as the yields are really negligible. This massive building campaign will therefore create substantial numbers of cheap government sponsored housing, driving down the prices for the large numbers of investment properties for sale. I can see where he is coming from with this, but think this is more a matter for the medium term, 10 to 15 years.
I personally believe Steve’s scenario is most probable, but not after the pollies bankrupted us all with the easy credit through our own Assiebank, giving away money to everyone breathing and willing to take on more debt for a house (competing with what may well be easy money from Chinese investors) and guaranteed by the you know who, us taxpayers of course.
This should take around 5-10 years in my humble opinion. After that we are all kaktus. Personally, the sooner this debt binge comes to an end the better for everyone, but there are not many votes in telling people to start behaving responsibly.
March 28th, 2010 at 11:45 pm
noah cross,
I think that the bubble at this stage doesn’t run on fundamentals (what in our case might be expected rental income, expected running costs of the mortgage and costs of building the house including buying the land and everything else). It even does not run on supply and demand so even a small inflow of capital from overseas may make some difference – in “rational expectations” of the buyers and sellers of course. Imagine there are 15 potential sellers and 30 potential buyers in a moderately rich suburb. 10 transactions take place at AUD1mln on average over 1 month period. Why not at AUD500k? Because people believe that AUD1mln is right. There is no other reason. If the mood changes slightly we may see 8 transactions taking place at AUD700k or at AUD1.2mln. People believe that AUD1mln is right because they “rationally” extrapolate the previous growth in prices, because prices are sticky and because they have been brainwashed by the “industry”. They see a few Chinese guys bidding up. What if these guys have been hired? I have a few Chinese friends as well…
One can talk about some fundamentals in my suburb where you can still buy a normal 3 bedroom house for $320k because new houses are built and there is some land available. That’s why I live where I live – but I know perfectly well that the prices must fall here as well when the bubble bursts. However the value of my house will drop $50k-$70k not $300k so it really doesn’t make much difference if I take into account how much I save on renting over 10 years. I have no idea when the bubble is going to burst so I will not sell just because I know that the real prices have to fall at some point over the next 10-15 years.
March 29th, 2010 at 12:01 am
noah cross,
What Alan Greenspan was saying is that with global capital flows, monetary policies of central banks have become ineffective. We are at the mercy of global speculators. This is in essence what Westpac was saying last week: Australian mortgage rates are set by international markets. I would have to agree with AG on this from the evidence.
What I disagree with AG is his excuse that the GFC is a “once-in-a-century event”, a language you use for natural catastrophes. The GFC is a man-made catastrophe, fully predictable by many except AG, who like everyone in the mainstream including BIS, World Bank, IMF, OECD and all central banks that the GFC is an accident, which has no causality. Nonsense.
While governments and regulators do not accept their failure and their responsibility there is no prospect of understanding the GFC and to prevent the next and rapidly looming crisis. All proposed regulatory reforms so far are complete rubbish.
March 29th, 2010 at 9:29 am
Lyonwiss,
“The GFC is a man-made catastrophe, fully predictable by many except AG, who like everyone in the mainstream including BIS, World Bank, IMF, OECD and all central banks that the GFC is an accident, which has no causality.”
Indeed. I often wonder how it can be that so few ‘connect the dots’ here.
To wit, when any demonstrably man-made incident occurs, and those in the best possible position to foresee and prevent it APPARENTLY fail to do so (while others in lesser positions do foresee it), then both logic and long historical precedent say there must be a very strong possibility that the ‘failure’ of these “authorities” is no accident at all.
Especially when there is a clear potential Benefit – thus Motivation – for those “authorities” to ‘fail’ to foresee and take preventative action on behalf of the long term best interests of the nation state, and/or its citizenry.
The fact that those who suggest or imply this are instanttly branded and ridiculed by the mainstream groupthinkers with all the usual ‘conspiracy nut’ and ‘tin-foil hat wearer’ epithets – rather than the evidence being carefully reviewed objectively and dispassionately – only further supports the basic contention, IMHO. One of my basic rules of life has become, “If anything / anyone is being ridiculed by the mainstream, then it’s worth taking an inquiring look, because there’s probably at the very least a grain of truth there”.
All of those entities you listed – or at very least, those individuals in high authority in them – have big things to gain from the responses / after effects of a GFC. Motivation.
They all have enormous information and human resources, and have historically-unprecedented financial regulatory powers available to them, and yet, failed to fulfill their responsibilities, leading to a GFC, and their subsequently recommending $Trillion taxpayer bailouts (benefiting banking mates), moves for additional (and supranational) powers (benefiting them), etc. Probable Cause.
To kid ourselves that these all ‘failed’ simply because (eg) they all ‘appear’ to subscribe to the theories of the wrong economist/s, is simply naïve. To beleive that, with all their decades of research, information-gathering and resources, they have somehow all been oblivious to Minsky’s insights is preposterous.
Whilst ever we accept the easy, less shocking, more palatable ‘answer’ – that they all merely ‘failed’ – we are in wilful denial of the obvious.
March 29th, 2010 at 9:53 am
A topical article here. It articulates (without getting to the root) some of the basic points I was making in the “Final T-Shirts” thread. That a usurious banking system is the ‘root of evil’ that has created our debt-fueled, greedy, violent, inequitable, unstable, consumerist throwaway society. Why? Because the very nature of usurious-banking profits means that banks are interested only in encouraging ever greater ‘activity’ (GDP)… and therefore, Quality and Sustainability (in both production, and consumer purchasing choices) are both anathema to the goal of ultimate banking profits –
http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2010/03/excessive-consumption-and-its-challenges-for-centreright-values.html
“Nevertheless, I genuinely am troubled by the paradox that while the market thrives on our demands as consumers of goods and services (including housing), it is blind to the quality of that demand. Indeed, it’s actually in the market’s generic interests not to ask questions about the quality of the spending. If you are spending on goods and services, thus creating more jobs and wealth, the market isn’t going to stop and ask you if you’re really sure you can afford it. It wants you to keep spending as much as you can.”
It’s no paradox at all, once you pull back the Wizard of Oz’s curtain. Ban usury in banking, and the fundamental problem can (once again) be eliminated.
March 29th, 2010 at 10:51 am
AK..
Agree that market sentiment can trump fundamentals, at least for a period of time. While people are convinced that there is value and future capital gain, they will be prepared to take on more debt. I heard another story over the weekend of a guy on a good income who leveraged two investments properties, such that he was struggling to afford bare necessities ie travel to work. He now has capital gains to show for his hardship etc etc.. It would seem it is this hope of future value that is driving prices and obscene personal debt levels.
Though this perspective assumes that people aren’t rocking up to auctions and paying cash.
What I therefore can’t understand is the falling home lending figures?? even though prices and clearance rates seems to be fairly buoyant.. Is there a lag in the data?
Any thoughts?
March 29th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Hi Steve,
Pretty Sad that everyone ignored you, cursed you, abused you when you were always going on about unsustainable house prices here. Notice how the RBA changed it tune rapidly after crying out that there is no bubble here and our bubble burst in 2004. Now everyone in the MSM and property speculators have blindly accepted his changed position that there is a house price bubble.
I think the difference is that they think the bubble is the inflated amount since the time FHOG took its effect coupled with low interest rates. This is equivalent to the the 13% increase since the low in 2008 (Oct/NOV 2008I think:). In my suburb house prices have shot up by 60K since the low in 2008. But shot up more than 200% between 1998 to now.
If we are talking about only 60K. I would rather have taken the FHOG in 2008 when the grant was first introduced. 35K is pretty much a small price (loss) to have the luxury of staying in your own home.
However, I am with you on this one.
March 29th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
Interesting -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/property-market-may-be-overheated-rba-governor-glenn-stevens-says/story-e6frg90f-1225846811203
“The nation’s top central banker has taken the unprecedented step of being interviewed on commercial television, in doing so warning property buyers not to borrow too much.
Some analysts have interpreted the unusual appearance as indicating that the Reserve Bank is concerned that the property market may become overheated.
In the first of a series of excerpts from the interview, being broadcast on Sunrise this week, Mr Stevens cautioned against property investment as a ‘riskless’ path to riches.
‘I think it is a mistake to assume that a riskless, easy, guaranteed way to prosperity is to be leveraged up into property,’ he said.”
March 29th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Overheated? What doe the RBA governor know? It’s all supply and demand and asking people not to borrow too much is a bit late now.
Chris Joye’s, and others with vested property interest will be more intriguing to watch how they explain this to their constituencies.
Lyonwiss – my attempt at irony over AG was not directed at his observations which are right, but around the basis and his record.
March 29th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
I think that there is some inconsistency between the data (falling mortgage borrowing and no dramatic increase in foreign investment) and the views that the Chinese are buying a lot of properties thus driving the prices up. There may be some lag in reporting and there may be lag in the house prices trend.
I simply don’t know, I tried to ask my Chinese friends but they could only confirm some activity on the housing market.
When we see a buildup of short positions against AUD then it will be too late…
March 29th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
An interesting article in the Weekend AFR quoting latest data release on income and taxation (P4). The main idea was to highlight how much high income earners (based on postcodes) were losing on property investments for negative gearing.
That was interesting, but for me it was especially interesting to consider this in conjuction with the “deductable donations and gifts” column.
The Queensland mining town, Tieri, caught my attention because it had the second lowest total for “net rent from investment properties” – i.e. the second biggest negative number (at -$10,517) – so had a very high level of negative gearing, yet dontations was an absolutely paltry $149!!
Seriously, why should people on such good incomes but who have so little regard for their fellow human (as to give so little back to those less fortunate) be afforded such largesse from Australian taxpayers – many of whom will never be able to afford to buy their own home if this lunacy is permitted to continue?
Reminds me of the repeated comment by the RBA that the country does not benefit from higher house prices, but that high income earners benefit at the expense of low income earners who are hurt.
Just think about those numbers for a second
$10,517 loss on rental property meant that we taxpayers “donated” over $4,000 back to these people.
But they donated less than $100 of their own money (after claiming the tax deduction) to vulnerable Aussies (many of whom pay taxes) and poor people.
In other words, for every $1 taxpayers gave them, they donated less than 2.5c !!!
We need look no further for demonstration of just how inequitable and ridiculous our tax system has become…
March 29th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
Why have the lending figures dropped and house prices seem to go up. Firstly, why not? Secondly there are some lags in data collection and difference in measurement.
Why not? If you are confused by the figures it is because you blindly believe that only a rise in mortgages can cause a rise in house prices. The assumptions in this belief are numerous. I can think of many ways in which this relationship fails, even without foreign buyers.
I try to explain here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/03/14/final-t-shirts/#comments
Another thing I thought of recently thanks to this website. Real economic theories are not exclusive. This is one of the things that distinguishes economics to science. In economics there are many “theories” happening all at once. A good economist takes each theory as a piece of a puzzle and in the context of thorough analysis of data places the puzzle pieces together in a coherent way, this is a continous process due to the changing nature of the economy. Maybe some people fall into the trap of finding a piece of truth, a “good theory” and think that this puzzle piece is the whole picture. This thinking that rising mortgage rates exclusively push up prices is an example of this.
March 29th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Property market may be overheated, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens says Looks like Stevens is going down the Rudd route and appealing directly to the Kochie demographic make up.
Good luck with that.
“THE nation’s top central banker has taken the unprecedented step of being interviewed on commercial television, in doing so warning property buyers not to borrow too much.
Some analysts have interpreted the unusual appearance as indicating that the Reserve Bank is concerned that the property market may become overheated.
In a pre-recorded interview with Channel Seven’s Sunrise program, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens reaffirmed that interest rates were on the way up, countering a belief held by some that rates would remain low after the global financial crisis.
In the first of a series of excerpts from the interview, being broadcast on Sunrise this week, Mr Stevens cautioned against property investment as a “riskless” path to riches.
“I think it is a mistake to assume that a riskless, easy, guaranteed way to prosperity is to be leveraged up into property,” he said.
“It isn’t going to be that easy.”
Mr Stevens repeated the RBA’s message that interest rates must move gradually towards more normal levels, indicating that the normal cash rate of about five per cent was based on the average for the cash rate since the early 1990s.
“We cut interest rates to what we called emergency settings when we had an emergency, when we thought we really were going to face a big downturn and we wanted to try and get ahead of that,” he said.
As the economy strengthened, interest rates were unlikely to stay low.
“Once the emergency’s passed and things gradually look more normal, then it’s not wise to leave interest rates down at rock bottom any longer than you need,” Mr Stevens said.
“And you shouldn’t assume they’ll stay that low because that assumption will prove to be unfortunate.”
Asked whether he was preparing the public for further interest rate rises, Mr Stevens replied: “I think it would be not doing people any favours to have a prolonged period of very low rates and then hammer them unexpectedly.
“And of course the banks that are lending the money should be, and I’m sure are, testing the potential borrower: can you handle some rise in interest rates?”….
March 29th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
We must be getting near the peak. I saw an advert on channel 7 for Today Tonight program tonight (29th March) with a report on house prices by Sydney suburbs of up to 500% increase. Real Estate industry propaganda or unbridled optimism!
March 29th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Thanks Truth Is There Is No Truth #40..
I guess I was trying to gain some insight into some of the ‘many’ reasons for this discontinuity between falling lending data and price rises.
Given that this site suggests that it is the unsustainable amount of debt and proceeding delevaraging that will lead to a fall is asset prices, I want to better understand how independent or dependent debt and asset prices really are.
Would love to hear more of your insights..
March 29th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
First Loan Buyer,
Another thing to think about is that it is a fall in new home loands, which still means that more home loans were added during the period. That adds some more dimension to my previous argument but I’ll have to think about that.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say they are independant, but they are not 100% dependant that’s all. If they are not 100% dependant than you can’t say “if only if” which was the basis of my argument.
March 29th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
Are commodities markets rigged?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Markets-in-question-pd20100329-3YRKP?OpenDocument&src=rab
http://www.gata.org/node/8466
Banks. Again.
March 29th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
Noteworthy comment from a reader of The Australian’s article today on Steven’s interview:
‘Waiting for the “correction” Posted at 1:22 PM Today
Now here’s something interesting. My “relationship manager” at Westpac says the housing market is heading for a “significant correction” because the major banks are about to insist on much higher deposits because of their alarm at the amount of questionable loans on their books. This guys says the word is that the Commonwealth will soon insist on a 30 per cent deposit for new purchases and then only to existing customers. “When that kind of thing happens, the heat will immediately go out of the market so stay out of it till the dust settles”. This bloke says Westpac is especially worried about the impact of the first home buyers grant and they’re already seeing significant loan defaults as interest rates rise. “These people took their $14-thousand, then got Mum and Dad to throw them the rest of their deposit because they were led to believe they’d miss the boat. Kevin Rudd has used taxpayer funds to entice a whole lot of young people into buying places they couldn’t afford and going bankrupt as interest rates rise”. That’s a direct quote from a guy at Westpac who used to be in the business of throwing money at you. God’s honour. Maybe the South Seas bubble IS about to pop?
Comment 5 of 20′
March 29th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Thanks Barnabyisright.
More alarmingly I am hearing that Mum and Dad did not have the cash either. So they gave a First or Second mortgage on their own house as the deposit. I hear this quite a lot.
So not only are the kids in trouble but there about to retire parents are going down with them.
I am a BIG believer that everyone is responsible for their own actions but there are quite a few in positions of influence and power who should be hung drawn and quartered for what is going to go down here.
March 29th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
Im not usually the real cynical type but here is the way everything unfolded:
1. US Subprime hits
2. Lehmann collapses
3. Our banks realises that they are stuffed and cannot roll over debt.
4. The govt, treasury and the RBA note that the bottom is falling out of our housing market.
5. The govt agrees to help the banks by i)guaranteeing all customer deposits to $1M securing the deposit base, and ii)backing all bank bond issuance.
6. Given that the govt effectively saved them from bankruptcy, in exchange the banks very reluctantly agree to support the govt in its efforts noted in 7.
7. The govt gets together with the states to raise the FHVB to support the housing/building industry in an effort to stop issue 4 above from sending the economy to the ICU as it did to the US.
8. Restrictions on housing speculation are eased for SMSF’s and foreign buyers to give extra support to the housing market.
9. The FHVB ends and the guarantees are withdrawn.
10. The Banks are peeved at what they agreed to do and the state of the books and how they are skewed and exposed to the residential property market.
11. They start to raise lending standards and interest rates to stop the madness.
12. The RBA comes out of its ivory tower to support their actions warning of a housing bubble.
13. Oopps…….
March 29th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
BIR # 46
It is on the ground stuff like the comment you copied that make this one of the best blogs there is.
flawse # 47
1000%
debtjunkies # 48
“11. They start to raise lending standards and interest rates to stop the madness.” Half of the Big 4′s funding is sourced from overseas lenders.
This should read:
“11. They start to raise lending standards and interest rates to save their own arses.”
Steve and All,
You should have heard Rory Robertson being interviewed on ABC Radio National about the Stevens appearance. Boy was he choosing his words caaaarefuuuully. IMVHO the media message of the Keen Walk may well “have legs” as the old journos used to say.
March 29th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
Oooops…there = their of course!!!!!