Bulk email to Debtwatch subscribers coming

flattr this!

This is just a heads up to the 12,675 reg­is­tered users on this site that you are about to receive an email from me ask­ing for your res­i­den­tal address.

This is intended just for the frac­tion of indi­vid­u­als who have reg­is­tered at or upgraded to a mem­ber­ship level that enti­tles them to an eBook or hard­copy ver­sion of the sec­ond edi­tion of Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics, which will be launched and avail­able on Octo­ber 4th (in the UK–its avail­abil­ity in other coun­tries depends on ship­ping times). How­ever there is no way for me to select just that sub­set for emails from within Word­Press (if any Word­Press guru knows oth­er­wise, please tell me how!), so all of you will receive the request (assum­ing that the plu­gin works as advertised).

A note for those who are expect­ing an eBook: it is pos­si­ble to do this in the USA via a “gift” from Ama­zon, but it appears that in other coun­tries even Ama­zon hasn’t set this facil­ity up. In that case, you will be sent a paper­back copy–which is why your addresses are needed.

Finally, to put some sub­stance into this post, watch this excerpt from a BBC inter­view with a trader (Alessio Ras­tani) which out­lines a com­mon view in the hedge fund com­mu­nity. It’s some­thing I hear all the time–and which makes me seem rel­a­tively cheer­ful about our cur­rent eco­nomic predica­ment (and cer­tainly more con­cerned about its social impact!)

About Steve Keen

I am a professional economist and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous debts accumulated in Australia, and our very low rate of inflation.
Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to Bulk email to Debtwatch subscribers coming

  1. Philip says:

    Amaz­ingly hon­est. Too bad we rarely have the equiv­a­lent in the eco­nom­ics pro­fes­sion apart from the slim minor­ity with an eth­i­cal back­bone e.g. Steve, Fred Har­ri­son, etc.

  2. alainton says:

    Might be ‘too good to be true’ and @dsquareddigest has been inves­ti­gat­ing and it looks like it might be clas­sic ‘yes men’ hoax — bril­liant hoax though if it is. Robert Peston has got him on the record on the BBC in last few mins to state he is not a mem­ber of the Yes men — beyond satire.

    If you really want to be scared see this video of the slow unrolling of chi­nas bank cri­sis — http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/private-lending-china.html

    Level of bank debt caus­ing a run to cash and rich indi­vid­u­als act­ing as finan­cial inter­me­di­aries instead — lend­ing sub-prime at high inter­est rates.

    This kind of struc­ture really needs mod­el­ling as it is insta­bil­ity with­out exoge­nous mon­e­tary cre­ation. All trans­ac­tions are hard cash not book trans­ac­tions — like full reserve banking.

  3. averagejoe says:

    I enjoyed watch­ing that inter­view. Watch­ing the faces of the stu­dio pre­sen­ters and their reac­tion. It just shows how much the media presents a one dimen­sion, rose tinted gog­gles, ver­sion of real­ity. At least when the crash comes they cant say it was a ‘surprise’!

  4. alainton says:

    Huff­post uk has on its front page the story that it could be a hoax http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/09/27/alessio-rastani-hoax-on-bbc_n_983156.html

    Although he looks noth­ing like the guy from the 2004 Yes Men bhopal inter­view.
    l
    Alessio Ras­tani though only seems to have an iden­tity on the inter­net and nonone has said — hey i work for a Hedge fund — I know him per­son­ally and professionally.

    His blog has a tiny num­ber of posts pre this week, and back to 2010. They can eas­ily be faked in Word­Press server side. The num­ber of face­books friends on his blog and face­book are iden­ti­cal, a lit­tle too convenient,

    His blog post is almost word for word what he said on the BCC ‘Why I pray for a Reces­sion’ http://www.leadingtrader.com/09/global-recession-why-i-pray-for-another-recession/

    Scripted to be picked up by media has to be the best guess.

    If he really was self employed by sell­ing train­ing advice on stocks he would be blog­ging and opin­ion­at­ing every day.

    The inter­view that forbes did to test if he was ‘for real’ smells to high heaven
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilylambert/2011/09/27/trader-or-prankster-we-called-alessio-rastani-and-asked/
    Reads like some­one who read an air­port book on day trad­ing, and might do a bit of that a hobby.

    The BBC has issued a press release say­ing hes for real an ‘inde­pen­dent mar­ket trader’
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2011/09_september/27/statement.shtml

    Cer­tainly not the wall street hedge fun guy he was pitched as

  5. Philip says:

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s690761.htm

    Aus­tralian econ­o­mist called the bub­ble in 2002 using the debt to GDP ratio analysis.

  6. alainton says:

    Ha ha every media organ­i­sa­tion has been hunt­ing down this guy and its the num­ber 1 trend­ing topic

    It turns out hes almost a neigh­bour of mine, isnt a reg­is­tered dealer and as I sus­pected day trad­ing is a hobby of his

    They approached me,” he told The Tele­graph. “I’m an atten­tion seeker. That is the main rea­son I speak. That is the rea­son I agreed to go on the BBC. Trad­ing is a like a hobby. It is not a busi­ness. I am a talker. I talk a lot. I love the whole idea of pub­lic speaking.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html

    But dont laugh the crash of 29 was down in large part to hob­by­ists, the paper gold crash is down to hob­by­ists, we now have 1000s of hobby chi­nese banks that are stor­ing up prob­lems. Greed is a big hobby. The guy told it like it is and im sure he has a great media future on the com­edy panel shows.

  7. kalman says:

    The stock mar­ket is a Casino, some­body wins and some­body looses; it is only good for gam­bling not for peo­ple who are seri­ous about mak­ing money. The best thing to do is, to term deposit your cash in Aus­tralia and earn 6% + the 5% on the depre­ci­a­tion of prices on all goods (minus 5% infla­tion). It is gov­ern­ment guar­an­teed and gives you peace of mind. At this point you have time to work and earn money and save more. From noth­ing there is noth­ing, so long term this is the only way to get rich.

  8. Steve Keen says:

    Yes, Peter Brain been a voice of san­ity in this insane pro­fes­sion for ages. We first worked together in 1979, when I ran a con­fer­ence on trade, and he had a stand-up fight with the IAC mob–great fun to watch.

    Peter also warned of the Asian cri­sis too before it hap­pened. Peter estab­lished the National Insti­tute for Eco­nomic and Indus­trial Research:

    http://www.nieir.com.au/

    It’s based on his non-neoclassical, some­what dis­e­qui­lib­rium multi-sectoral model. He’s a very impor­tant and under-rated con­trib­u­tor to eco­nomic real­ism here in Australia.

  9. koonyeow says:

    Title: The Stock Mar­ket Is Not Nec­es­sar­ily A Casino

    1. The stock mar­ket is not a casino for value investors;
    2. I use the stock mar­ket to test my behav­iour as endowed by evo­lu­tion and con­firmed that there is a mon­key in me.

    Steve’s sug­ges­tion to make sec­ondary mar­ket stocks expire in 50 years would have made the stock mar­ket less casino like. Will Steve’s sug­ges­tion be adopted? Maybe around the year 2212 it will be (but in the long run we are all…).

  10. Philip says:

    http://news.anu.edu.au/?p=1157

    ANU eco­nom­ics pro­fes­sor calls the bub­ble in 2009.

  11. Steve Keen says:

    Good on him–I’d missed that one. Good to see.

  12. Philip says:

    Do you know the West­ern Syd­ney Uni­ver­sity econ­o­mists Wayne Dwyer and and Hay­dir Alhashimi? Found an arti­cle of theirs from 2004 that denies the hous­ing bubble.

    The res­i­den­tial prop­erty cycle and the Aus­tralian econ­omy: no bub­ble, no trouble”

    I’ve been read­ing through many papers and reports that pur­port to ana­lyze the US hous­ing mar­ket, com­ing from the Fed, NBER, con­ven­tional eco­nomic jour­nals, etc. It is amaz­ing that these cre­den­tialed and expe­ri­enced econ­o­mists could not see a $US8 tril­lion US hous­ing bubble.

    Many of the econ­o­mists were floun­der­ing as their sta­tic mod­els could not com­pre­hend how dis­pos­able incomes could drive up hous­ing prices. The worst was when they said that EMH and CAPM the­ory states that assets are priced effi­ciently by def­i­n­i­tion, so if hous­ing prices have risen to the moon, it must be an effi­cient out­come — so absurd.

  13. Steve Keen says:

    Yes, Wayne is a good mate and Hay­dir is a very nice bloke too, but they are pri­mar­ily teach­ers rather than researchers. They stuck well within the bounds of con­ven­tional think­ing in that paper.

  14. centerline says:

    @phillip,

    Good stuff. So com­i­cal actu­ally that “head out the win­dow” analy­sis might have yield bet­ter prog­nos­ti­ca­tion as opposed to acad­e­mia. Hits right at the core of mod­ern eco­nomic edu­ca­tion being some­what absurd.

    Regard­ing the BBC inter­view — there are so many rumors and so much “the­ater” going on in the main­stream media it has become noth­ing but a cir­cus. I sin­cerely believe that this “cir­cus” is, in itself, the sig­nal that all is not well and some­thing wicked this way comes!

  15. peterjbolton says:

    @ Philip Sep­tem­ber 29, 2011 at 2:08 am | #

    ” It is amaz­ing that these cre­den­tialed and expe­ri­enced econ­o­mists could not see a $US8 tril­lion US hous­ing bubble.

    Many of the econ­o­mists were floun­der­ing as their sta­tic mod­els could not com­pre­hend how dis­pos­able incomes could drive up hous­ing prices. The worst was when they said that EMH and CAPM the­ory states that assets are priced effi­ciently by def­i­n­i­tion, so if hous­ing prices have risen to the moon, it must be an effi­cient out­come – so absurd.”

    I too was amazed at the so-called pro­fes­sion of Eco­nom­ics and now, I too, find the whole scam of eco­nom­ics “so absurd“‘; crim­i­nally and irre­spon­si­bly so but the pre­tence must be main­tained, and excused — by the Econ­o­mists, of course.

    Rec­om­men­da­tion: I would replace “Many” above, with ‘most.

    Note how the coerced Cen­tral Banks’ mar­ket manip­u­la­tions sur­rep­ti­tiously led by the soon to be grande loser Mr. Bernanke are beat­ing down Gold and Sil­ver down in the crim­i­nal attempt to force money into the US Dol­lar and US T Bonds.

    This tac­tic, involved caus­ing a full unjus­ti­fied and unnec­es­sary bull store-high-in-transit (SHIT) panic in the EU by hav­ing their trained and loyal true-believer Econ­o­mists and talk­ing heads plus the media talk and print mali­cious lies. Actu­ally, it is lies as these Econ­o­mists actu­ally believe the crap that they spruik is some sort of estab­lished sci­ence. Odes of Sum­mers, Rubin, Roubini and Krug­man, et al.

    How deluded is that. Noth­ing worse than a happy con­vict and there are plenty around here.

    But this is the only “Eco­nomic The­ory” you need to know and it is called the sup­port­ing pro­pa­ganda for gov­ern­men­tal, and bureau­cratic “theft” from the “gov­erned” for the Bank­ing System.

  16. Lyonwiss says:

    @ Peter­jbolton Sep­tem­ber 29, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    Most (if not all) econ­o­mists do not under­stand the mon­sters they have cre­ated through their stu­pid the­o­ries. What Alessio Ras­tani does is no dif­fer­ent from what other traders do, in Gold­man Sachs and other invest­ment banks, “doing God’s work”. If any­one is shocked by the can­did com­ments, then the per­son has no idea of the true ori­gin of the finan­cial crisis.

  17. peterjbolton says:

    @ Lyon­wiss Sep­tem­ber 29, 2011 at 1:58 pm | #

    Eco­nomic the­ory devel­op­ment has been dri­ven unfor­tu­nately, largely by rhetoric and by polit­i­cal and finan­cial sup­port of the rhetoric. This then dis­torts the edu­ca­tion sys­tem, which is mostly a meal-ticket pur­chase sys­tem, where regur­gi­ta­tion of mate­r­ial is a low-risk approach to meet­ing the job objec­tive.” Lyon­wiss August 13, 2011 at 2:52 pm |

    Just for the record Lyon­wiss and for prox­im­ity, I take great plea­sure in post­ing an ear­lier “utter­ance” of your orig­i­na­tion — see above — that brings great clar­ity and under­stand­ing in the most qual­i­ta­tive and suc­cinct manner.

    Thanks for being a human being.

    In a few hours we shall know the result of the Ger­many EFSF attempted rat­i­fi­ca­tion. If it fails, which it should, then it will be back to real­ity and the puss of the boils will spew forth unre­lent­ing. If is passes, it will be merely a post­pone­ment of what is to come.

  18. peterjbolton says:

    Ger­many Backs EFSF Expan­sion With 523 Votes In Favor, 85 Against; EUR Sells On The News

    From: Zero Hedge

    Mad­ness and Insanity

    Polit­i­cal Cow­ardice and I thought that the Ger­mans had some back­bone; sigh.

  19. centerline says:

    The news that Ger­many backed the EFSF is to me another sign that a Greek default sim­ply is very dan­ger­ous. That the EU can­not seem to find a good way to let this hap­pen. Oth­er­wise, I believe it would have already occurred. There­fore, I will­ing to take the next leap of faith to say that the EU is now “all in” on the process of avoid­ing any sort of crit­i­cal sov­er­eign default. The can has been kicked again.

    How­ever, noth­ing has fun­da­men­tally changed. In fact, the eco­nomic envi­ron­ment con­tin­ues to dete­ri­o­rate. There will come a point that the can will not be able to be kicked any fur­ther. And all the inter­ven­tion will have effec­tively only increased the poten­tial “eco­nomic” energy of the sys­tem to a point that the release of said energy will be akin to an eco­nomic nuclear detonation.

    I sup­pose the pur­pose is a game of try­ing to out­run the inevitable bet­ter than another (say cred­i­tor). A hot potato game betweent the EU and US, wait­ing for China to implode first. Just spec­u­la­tion on my part of course.

  20. Philip says:

    I found a good report on inter­na­tional com­par­isons of mortgages.

    http://www.housingamerica.org/RIHA/RIHA/Publications/74023_10122_Research_RIHA_Lea_Report.pdf

    I find it odd that the main­stream says that Aus­tralia is in no dan­ger because we have a low rate of non-performing loans. Yet these loans only rise sig­nif­i­cantly after the bub­ble peaks and unem­ploy­ment rises. Non-performing loans in Spain and the US remained steady and only increased after the bub­ble burst, not before.

    The attached image shows this fal­lacy. Funny that Chris Joye should inter­pret it in the oppo­site manner.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/residential-house-prices-commercial-property-super-pd20110928-M53GN?opendocument&src=rss

    Inter­est­ingly, Aus­tralia has the same non-performing hous­ing loan rate of Spain in 2007 and we know that Spain is in a debt-deflation.

  21. Alan Gresley says:

    @Lyonwiss Sep­tem­ber 29, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    What Alessio Ras­tani does is no dif­fer­ent from what other traders do, in Gold­man Sachs and other invest­ment banks, “doing God’s work”.”

    The com­mon believe in a “God” (Chris­tain, Jud­ism or Islam) or any book that pro­mote such con­cepts can only arise due to delu­sional thinking.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosis

    Psy­chosis is given to the more severe forms of psy­chi­atric dis­or­der, dur­ing which hal­lu­ci­na­tions and delu­sions and impaired insight may occur.

    Also, those who burn a sys­tem that is part of their own means of sur­vival is akin to not using right speech (less alone right action). They will destroy the very thing that can help with there exis­tence (to a point of destroy­ing the earth or bio sys­tems on the earth).

  22. Lyonwiss says:

    Alan Gres­ley Sep­tem­ber 30, 2011 at 2:35 am

    The inter­view cited in one of the above comments:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilylambert/2011/09/27/trader-or-prankster-we-called-alessio-rastani-and-asked

    is frank, truth­ful and accu­rate from my own expe­ri­ence in trad­ing, both per­sonal and insti­tu­tional. Most traders can­not speak openly because they are gagged by their bosses or by their asso­ci­a­tions. Alessio Ras­tani (AR) said: “I trade my own money, my own account. That’s what I always wanted to do. I like the idea of not hav­ing a boss. I did work for one insti­tu­tion, but I real­ized I want to do it for myself.” (Totally log­i­cal: if you really can make money, you don’t need a boss.)

    The world is run by eco­nomic think­ing which is delu­sional. “This is not a time right now for wish­ful think­ing that gov­ern­ments are going to sort things out,” Ras­tani told the BBC. “The gov­ern­ments don’t rule the world, Gold­man Sachs rules the world.” Gov­ern­ments don’t make money; Gold­man Sachs does. Mak­ing money is “doing God’s work”.

    As a per­sonal account trader, it is entirely log­i­cal for Alessio Ras­tani to wish for a reces­sion, when you can make money most quickly, as the mar­ket goes up by the esca­la­tor and goes down by the lift-well. Alessio Ras­tani does not feel respon­si­ble for what he says, because eco­nomic the­ory accepts that any opin­ion alone is unim­por­tant and diverse opin­ions are needed to cre­ate a mar­ket and pro­vide liquidity.

    An impor­tant aspect of the social psy­chosis is people’s delu­sional under­stand­ing of how the econ­omy really works ver­sus how the econ­omy actu­ally works, being dri­ven by false eco­nomic the­o­ries which may be log­i­cally con­sis­tent, but dan­ger­ous and delusional.

Leave a Reply