Ann Pettifor in Australia

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Ann Pettifor is one of the handful of economists who predicted and warned about the financial crisis of 2007 well before it happened. Ann first came to prominence when she led the Jubilee 2000 campaign to abolish the debt of the world's 42 poorest countries. She was one of the 12 nominees for the Revere Award; some of her pre-crisis comments that were highlighted there were:

Removing controls over the finance sector paved the way for its rise to dominance, which in turn has led to a transformation of the global economy and increased instability.

 [One of] the consequences for the global economy [is an] enormous increase (or ‘bubble’) in the stock of financial assets in relation to the real economy, as measured by GDP or the stock of physical, human, and technological capital.

 There will be a collapse in the credit system in the rich world, led by the United States

 Once default rates approach 1 per cent of the value of the debt across the whole lending spectrum, the profitability of banks is called into question. If default rates reach 2 per cent, the probability of a financial crisis rises appreciably.

Ann will be in Australia as a guest of the Search Foundation from early September. Ann is an excellent speaker, as well as a seriously well-informed analyst, and her talks will be well worth attending. For more details of her visit, please go to the Search website. For more information please contact Bronislava Lee at the SEARCH Foundation on (02) 9211 4164 or via email at bron@search.org.au.

The following tour information was copied from the Search website. If any of the links don't work, please go to the orig­i­nal page and book from there:

Ade­laide

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Mark Hen­ley (Unit­ing­Care Wes­ley Ade­laide)
6.30pm, Thurs­day 1 Sep­tem­ber, Napier Lec­ture The­atre, Uni­ver­sity of Ade­laide, $10/$5

Co-sponsored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, the Don Dun­stan Foun­da­tion and the Con­ser­va­tion Coun­cil SABook online | Share on Facebook

Mel­bourne

Launch of “Bab­ble in the Bar”, Inau­gural Quar­terly Trades Hall Gath­er­ing, with talk by Ann Pet­ti­for (UK)
6-7pm, Fri­day 2 Sep­tem­ber, Bella Union Bar, Trades Hall. Drinks provided.

Co-sponsored by Vic­to­rian Trades Hall Coun­cil, SEARCH Foun­da­tion and the National Ter­tiary Edu­ca­tion Union. RSVP to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164 by Wednes­day 31 August.

Work­shop for union cli­mate activists and uni­ver­sity stu­dents
10am-noon, Fri­day 2 Sep­tem­ber, Jim Pot­ter Room, Old Physics Build­ing – G16, Uni­ver­sity of Mel­bourne, Parkville

 

The National Ter­tiary Edu­ca­tion Union is spon­sor­ing a spe­cial work­shop for its cli­mate activists and uni­ver­sity stu­dents on Fri­day morn­ing in South Mel­bourne. Active mem­bers of other unions may also attend. For more infor­ma­tion or to RSVP con­tact bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Com­mu­nity forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK)
2-4pm, Sat­ur­day 3 Sep­tem­ber, New Inter­na­tion­al­ist Book­shop, Trades Hall

Bris­bane

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Ian Lowe (Grif­fith Uni­ver­sity)
6.30pm, Mon­day 5 Sep­tem­ber, Pre­miers’ Hall, Par­lia­men­tary Annexe, Cnr Alice & William Sts. Sug­gested dona­tion $10/$5.

Sup­ported by Sen­a­tors Claire Moore and Larissa Waters and QLD MP Evan Moor­head and co-sponsored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, Queens­land Con­ser­va­tion Coun­cil and the Green Insti­tute. RSVP by 31 August to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Work­shop for union del­e­gates
1-4pm Mon­day 5 September

The Aus­tralian Man­u­fac­tur­ing Work­ers Union (AMWU) is host­ing a spe­cial work­shop for union del­e­gates. Con­tact your union to ask if they are par­tic­i­pat­ing, or for more infor­ma­tion con­tact bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Syd­ney

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Arthur Ror­ris (South Coast Labour Coun­cil)
6pm, Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, Tom Mann the­atre, 136 Chalmers St, Surry Hills. Sug­gested dona­tion $10/$5.

Co-sponsored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, Cli­mate Action Net­work Aus­tralia, Cat­a­lyst, Green­peace Australia-Pacific, Aus­tralian Ser­vices Union, South Coast Labour Coun­cil, Insti­tute of Envi­ron­men­tal Stud­ies (UNSW), Soci­ety of Het­ero­dox Econ­o­mists, Insti­tute for Sus­tain­able Futures (UTS). RSVP by Mon­day 5 Sep­tem­ber to bron@search.org.au or 9211 4164.

Mak­ing the Boom Pay: If not now, when? Cat­a­lyst and Aus­tralia Insti­tute Con­fer­ence 
10am-4pm,  Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, fea­tur­ing Ann Pet­ti­for as one of the keynote speak­ers. For more details con­tact Cat­a­lyst on 8090 1177

Insti­tute of Envi­ron­men­tal Stud­ies and Soci­ety of Het­ero­dox Econ­o­mists cam­pus work­shop
3–4.30pm, Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, Aus­tralian School of Busi­ness room 220, UNSW, Kens­ing­ton. Free.

Plus spe­cial work­shops for union del­e­gates and NSW Par­lia­ment staff and MPs on Wednes­day 7 Sep­tem­ber
Con­tact bron@search.org.au or 9211 4164 for more information.

Wol­lon­gong

Union and com­mu­nity work­shop
9am-1pm, Fri­day 9 Sep­tem­ber, South Coast Labour Coun­cil Trade Union Cen­tre, 1 Low­den  Sq, Wol­lon­gong. Free.

The train­ing is open to all com­mu­nity mem­bers in the region who are inter­ested in the Green Jobs project or the prob­lem of cli­mate change and ensur­ing the tran­si­tion is effec­tive. The half-day work­shop will be practically-oriented with a focus on engag­ing the com­mu­nity on these issues. It will cover:

• How the tran­si­tion can be financed and be socially, as well as envi­ron­men­tally, ben­e­fi­cial
• The roles of organ­ised labour and indus­try groups in devel­op­ing polit­i­cal momen­tum for change, and in the tran­si­tion itself.

RSVP required by Wednes­day 7 Sep­tem­ber to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

About Steve Keen

I am a professional economist and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous debts accumulated in Australia, and our very low rate of inflation.
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14 Responses to Ann Pettifor in Australia

  1. sj says:

    Mr Keen
    Help­ing poor cor­rupt coun­tries abol­ished debt may sound a good hon­ourable idea.
    The real­ity is far dif­fer­ent you are keep­ing cor­rupt and vio­lent gov­ern­ments in con­trol so always be the sta­tus quo.
    You want these pow­er­ful voilent lead­ers gone you don’t offer them more money!
    These greedy cor­rupt pow­er­ful lead­ers will just put the coun­try back into debt set up a bil­lion dol­lar swiss account for their cronies.
    Save your money blog­gers give your money to a home­less per­son you meet in the street atleast you know 100% of the money will go to that poor soul.
    Over 35% of char­ity money goes on admin­is­tra­tion costs expen­sive cars,houses and salaries of over $100,000.
    Please read the book POOR STORY
    An insider uncov­ers how glob­al­i­sa­tion and good inten­tions have failed the world’s poor.
    Author Giles Bolton.

  2. sirius says:

    @sj

    Maybe some “real ethics” are in order ? (Another rev­o­lu­tion?) :-)

  3. elliottwave says:

    WOW EW you are great!!!!

    Thanks, but I TOLD YOU SO.

    BUY GOLD.

  4. MMitchell says:

    War­ren Raftshol,

    I (and per­haps oth­ers) am not famil­iar with the para­me­ters to your model. Could offer a short com­ment, in layman’s terms, explain­ing what is hap­pen­ing in your model and what fac­tors would result in 75% rates?

  5. MMitchell:

    (1) u’/u =Ph(v)-?-p’/p

    (2) v’/v =(1-u)V/p-(?+?+?+p’/p)+r

    Real out­put is Q = aL. Then Q’/Q = a’/a+L’/L is the time rate of growth of the econ­omy. a is labor pro­duc­tiv­ity. a’/a is taken as con­stant a’/a =alpha = 2.5%/year in this exam­ple. L is the labor force and is equal to nv, n is pop­u­la­tion, v is employ­ment per­cent­age. L’/L = n’/n+v’/v, n’/n = beta =1.23%/year. p is the price level. p’/p is rate of infla­tion. Delta is annual rate of cap­i­tal depre­ci­a­tion, taken here as 1%/year. u is the ratio W/pQ where W=wL and Q=aL. w is the nom­i­nal wage rate.

    Equa­tion (1) is the Phillips curve equa­tion for u. Since w’/w = Ph(v), writ­ten for u = w/(pa) is u’/u = Ph(v) — alpha — p’/p

    Equa­tion (2) is a restate­ment of the quan­tity the­ory of money pQ = mV where m is the quan­tity of money and V is money veloc­ity, V=V® =V(0)exp(rt) so V’/V is r, the real inter­est rate.

    m’/m = Q’/Q + p’/p — V’/V is the quan­tity the­ory of money in rate terms and says that the rate of money growth increases with growth of Q and p and decreases with growth of V. By regroup­ing the defined terms you end up with
    equa­tion (2).

    p’/p is an exoge­nous input from his­tory. r is (1-u)/u and is the real inter­est rate required to divert money from cir­cu­la­tion um to invest­ment (1-u)m

    Thanks for the question.

  6. should read

    (1) u’/u = Ph(v)-alpha –p’/p

    (2) v’/v = (1-u)V/p-(alpha+beta+delta+p’/p) — r

  7. cor­rec­tiom again

    (2) v’/v = (1-u)V/p — (alpha+beta+delta+p’/p) + r

  8. alainton says:

    Ive been read­ing a fair bit in last few days of how a great debt reset, by what­ever means, might be our only option — het­ero­doxy in main­stream in a few short months. George Mag­nus, another mem­ber of the ‘I told you so’ club has said as much in the last 24 hrs.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8372004/EU-paralysis-drives-fresh-bond-rout.html

    Here’s Brain Rogers of Fator Securities

    ’ Until the world finally real­izes that the con­cen­tra­tion of lever­age that cur­rently sits on the bal­ance sheets of the world’s largest 15–20 banks is the source of our global insta­bil­ity and pro­tect­ing these same banks is lit­er­ally cut­ting off our nose to spite our face, we will con­tinue to suf­fer huge bouts of “risk-on/risk-off” madness. …

    Per­haps the best option here is for the US and Europe to join hands and craft a global bal­ance sheet reor­ga­ni­za­tion, aka The Great Reset, bilat­er­ally. At over 50% of global GDP, any­thing the US and Europe did together would almost cer­tainly be influ­en­tial enough to bring the rest of the world on board. Think Bret­ton Woods III. Yes, this would mean debt write-offs and the nation­al­iza­tion of the banks. ’

    Indeed in my view either we elim­i­nate debt in a planned way or bank fail­ure and sov­er­eign debt default will do it any­way in a cate­sp­trophic way, espe­cially if it knocks he BRAIN economies over the edge, as seems likely through col­lapse in their export markets.

    What might such a planned approach look like — some thoughts
    http://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/global-deflault-how-it-might-work-either-planned-or-unplanned/

    What we really need though is a model — to demon­strate how it could work. It is dif­fi­cult if not impos­si­ble to model debt con­ta­gion amongst banks with­out a lot of work on iffy data. But it would be pos­si­ble to model the effect of a col­lapse of some of the largest and most debt laden finan­cial insti­tu­tions, the cna­cel­la­tion of con­sumer debt and the refi­nanc­ing of small depos­i­tor bal­ance sheets through hor­i­zon­tal money — thoughts?

  9. alainton says:

    Some breath­tak­ing com­pla­cency by Stephen Williamson on his blog in review­ing Quig­gan http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/2011/08/john-quiggin.html

    Like the “effi­cient mar­kets hypoth­e­sis,” DSGE has no impli­ca­tions, and there­fore can’t be wrong. Indeed DSGE encom­passes essen­tially all of mod­ern macro­eco­nom­ics. …Granted, some of our mod­els were not so help­ful in mak­ing sense of the finan­cial cri­sis. But oth­ers were, and some of the mod­els that were not help­ful could be (and are being) mod­i­fied so that they are.’

    I can see that quote being put into pow­er­point slides to amuse stu­dents already

  10. alainton says:

    Oh and heres a sum­mary of the reac­tion on the blo­gos­phere to Williamson’s comment

    http://robertvienneau.blogspot.com/2011/08/quiggin-fortunate-in-his-enemies.html

  11. Steve Keen says:

    I agree Andrew,

    As for mod­el­ling it, that is feasible–I might give that a try in a month or two when I have some spare time.

  12. MMitchell says:

    Thanks War­ren,

    How­ever, I think I would still ben­e­fit from a more descrip­tive analy­sis of what is hap­pen­ing in your model. It is one thing to have the equa­tions, but quite another to under­stand the con­text and impli­ca­tions of them and their terms. But per­haps this really requires a more sub­stan­tial effort of under­stand­ing and read­ing yoru sources on my half.

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