Ann Pet­ti­for in Aus­tralia

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Ann Pet­ti­for is one of the hand­ful of econ­o­mists who pre­dicted and warned about the finan­cial cri­sis of 2007 well before it hap­pened. Ann first came to promi­nence when she led the Jubilee 2000 cam­paign to abol­ish the debt of the world’s 42 poor­est coun­tries. She was one of the 12 nom­i­nees for the Revere Award; some of her pre-cri­sis com­ments that were high­lighted there were:

Remov­ing con­trols over the finance sec­tor paved the way for its rise to dom­i­nance, which in turn has led to a trans­for­ma­tion of the global econ­omy and increased insta­bil­ity.

 [One of] the con­se­quences for the global econ­omy [is an] enor­mous increase (or ‘bub­ble’) in the stock of finan­cial assets in rela­tion to the real econ­omy, as mea­sured by GDP or the stock of phys­i­cal, human, and tech­no­log­i­cal cap­i­tal.

 There will be a col­lapse in the credit sys­tem in the rich world, led by the United States

 Once default rates approach 1 per cent of the value of the debt across the whole lend­ing spec­trum, the prof­itabil­ity of banks is called into ques­tion. If default rates reach 2 per cent, the prob­a­bil­ity of a finan­cial cri­sis rises appre­cia­bly.

Ann will be in Aus­tralia as a guest of the Search Foun­da­tion from early Sep­tem­ber. Ann is an excel­lent speaker, as well as a seri­ously well-informed ana­lyst, and her talks will be well worth attend­ing. For more details of her visit, please go to the Search web­site. For more infor­ma­tion please con­tact Bro­nislava Lee at the SEARCH Foun­da­tion on (02) 9211 4164 or via email at bron@search.org.au.

The fol­low­ing tour infor­ma­tion was copied from the Search web­site. If any of the links don’t work, please go to the orig­i­nal page and book from there:

Ade­laide

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Mark Hen­ley (Unit­ing­Care Wes­ley Ade­laide)
6.30pm, Thurs­day 1 Sep­tem­ber, Napier Lec­ture The­atre, Uni­ver­sity of Ade­laide, $10/$5

Co-spon­sored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, the Don Dun­stan Foun­da­tion and the Con­ser­va­tion Coun­cil SABook online | Share on Face­book

Mel­bourne

Launch of “Bab­ble in the Bar”, Inau­gural Quar­terly Trades Hall Gath­er­ing, with talk by Ann Pet­ti­for (UK)
6-7pm, Fri­day 2 Sep­tem­ber, Bella Union Bar, Trades Hall. Drinks pro­vided.

Co-spon­sored by Vic­to­rian Trades Hall Coun­cil, SEARCH Foun­da­tion and the National Ter­tiary Edu­ca­tion Union. RSVP to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164 by Wednes­day 31 August.

Work­shop for union cli­mate activists and uni­ver­sity stu­dents
10am-noon, Fri­day 2 Sep­tem­ber, Jim Pot­ter Room, Old Physics Build­ing – G16, Uni­ver­sity of Mel­bourne, Parkville

 

The National Ter­tiary Edu­ca­tion Union is spon­sor­ing a spe­cial work­shop for its cli­mate activists and uni­ver­sity stu­dents on Fri­day morn­ing in South Mel­bourne. Active mem­bers of other unions may also attend. For more infor­ma­tion or to RSVP con­tact bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Com­mu­nity forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK)
2-4pm, Sat­ur­day 3 Sep­tem­ber, New Inter­na­tion­al­ist Book­shop, Trades Hall

Bris­bane

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Ian Lowe (Grif­fith Uni­ver­sity)
6.30pm, Mon­day 5 Sep­tem­ber, Pre­miers’ Hall, Par­lia­men­tary Annexe, Cnr Alice & William Sts. Sug­gested dona­tion $10/$5.

Sup­ported by Sen­a­tors Claire Moore and Larissa Waters and QLD MP Evan Moor­head and co-spon­sored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, Queens­land Con­ser­va­tion Coun­cil and the Green Insti­tute. RSVP by 31 August to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Work­shop for union del­e­gates
1-4pm Mon­day 5 Sep­tem­ber

The Aus­tralian Man­u­fac­tur­ing Work­ers Union (AMWU) is host­ing a spe­cial work­shop for union del­e­gates. Con­tact your union to ask if they are par­tic­i­pat­ing, or for more infor­ma­tion con­tact bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

Syd­ney

Pub­lic forum with Ann Pet­ti­for (UK) and Arthur Ror­ris (South Coast Labour Coun­cil)
6pm, Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, Tom Mann the­atre, 136 Chalmers St, Surry Hills. Sug­gested dona­tion $10/$5.

Co-spon­sored by the SEARCH Foun­da­tion, Cli­mate Action Net­work Aus­tralia, Cat­a­lyst, Green­peace Aus­tralia-Pacific, Aus­tralian Ser­vices Union, South Coast Labour Coun­cil, Insti­tute of Envi­ron­men­tal Stud­ies (UNSW), Soci­ety of Het­ero­dox Econ­o­mists, Insti­tute for Sus­tain­able Futures (UTS). RSVP by Mon­day 5 Sep­tem­ber to bron@search.org.au or 9211 4164.

Mak­ing the Boom Pay: If not now, when? Cat­a­lyst and Aus­tralia Insti­tute Con­fer­ence 
10am-4pm,  Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, fea­tur­ing Ann Pet­ti­for as one of the keynote speak­ers. For more details con­tact Cat­a­lyst on 8090 1177

Insti­tute of Envi­ron­men­tal Stud­ies and Soci­ety of Het­ero­dox Econ­o­mists cam­pus work­shop
3–4.30pm, Thurs­day 8 Sep­tem­ber, Aus­tralian School of Busi­ness room 220, UNSW, Kens­ing­ton. Free.

Plus spe­cial work­shops for union del­e­gates and NSW Par­lia­ment staff and MPs on Wednes­day 7 Sep­tem­ber
Con­tact bron@search.org.au or 9211 4164 for more infor­ma­tion.

Wol­lon­gong

Union and com­mu­nity work­shop
9am-1pm, Fri­day 9 Sep­tem­ber, South Coast Labour Coun­cil Trade Union Cen­tre, 1 Low­den  Sq, Wol­lon­gong. Free.

The train­ing is open to all com­mu­nity mem­bers in the region who are inter­ested in the Green Jobs project or the prob­lem of cli­mate change and ensur­ing the tran­si­tion is effec­tive. The half-day work­shop will be prac­ti­cally-ori­ented with a focus on engag­ing the com­mu­nity on these issues. It will cover:

• How the tran­si­tion can be financed and be socially, as well as envi­ron­men­tally, ben­e­fi­cial
• The roles of organ­ised labour and indus­try groups in devel­op­ing polit­i­cal momen­tum for change, and in the tran­si­tion itself.

RSVP required by Wednes­day 7 Sep­tem­ber to bron@search.org.au or (02) 9211 4164.

About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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  • sj

    Mr Keen
    Help­ing poor cor­rupt coun­tries abol­ished debt may sound a good hon­ourable idea.
    The real­ity is far dif­fer­ent you are keep­ing cor­rupt and vio­lent gov­ern­ments in con­trol so always be the sta­tus quo.
    You want these pow­er­ful voilent lead­ers gone you don’t offer them more money!
    These greedy cor­rupt pow­er­ful lead­ers will just put the coun­try back into debt set up a bil­lion dol­lar swiss account for their cronies.
    Save your money blog­gers give your money to a home­less per­son you meet in the street atleast you know 100% of the money will go to that poor soul.
    Over 35% of char­ity money goes on admin­is­tra­tion costs expen­sive cars,houses and salaries of over $100,000.
    Please read the book POOR STORY
    An insider uncov­ers how glob­al­i­sa­tion and good inten­tions have failed the world’s poor.
    Author Giles Bolton.

  • sir­ius

    @sj

    Maybe some “real ethics” are in order ? (Another rev­o­lu­tion?) 🙂

  • elliottwave

    WOW EW you are great!!!!

    Thanks, but I TOLD YOU SO.

    BUY GOLD.

  • MMitchell

    War­ren Raft­shol,

    I (and per­haps oth­ers) am not famil­iar with the para­me­ters to your model. Could offer a short com­ment, in layman’s terms, explain­ing what is hap­pen­ing in your model and what fac­tors would result in 75% rates?

  • MMitchell:

    (1) u’/u =Ph(v)-?-p’/p

    (2) v’/v =(1-u)V/p-(?+?+?+p’/p)+r

    Real out­put is Q = aL. Then Q’/Q = a’/a+L’/L is the time rate of growth of the econ­omy. a is labor pro­duc­tiv­ity. a’/a is taken as con­stant a’/a =alpha = 2.5%/year in this exam­ple. L is the labor force and is equal to nv, n is pop­u­la­tion, v is employ­ment per­cent­age. L’/L = n’/n+v’/v, n’/n = beta =1.23%/year. p is the price level. p’/p is rate of infla­tion. Delta is annual rate of cap­i­tal depre­ci­a­tion, taken here as 1%/year. u is the ratio W/pQ where W=wL and Q=aL. w is the nom­i­nal wage rate.

    Equa­tion (1) is the Phillips curve equa­tion for u. Since w’/w = Ph(v), writ­ten for u = w/(pa) is u’/u = Ph(v) — alpha — p’/p

    Equa­tion (2) is a restate­ment of the quan­tity the­ory of money pQ = mV where m is the quan­tity of money and V is money veloc­ity, V=V® =V(0)exp(rt) so V’/V is r, the real inter­est rate.

    m’/m = Q’/Q + p’/p — V’/V is the quan­tity the­ory of money in rate terms and says that the rate of money growth increases with growth of Q and p and decreases with growth of V. By regroup­ing the defined terms you end up with
    equa­tion (2).

    p’/p is an exoge­nous input from his­tory. r is (1-u)/u and is the real inter­est rate required to divert money from cir­cu­la­tion um to invest­ment (1-u)m

    Thanks for the ques­tion.

  • should read

    (1) u’/u = Ph(v)-alpha –p’/p

    (2) v’/v = (1-u)V/p-(alpha+beta+delta+p’/p) — r

  • cor­rec­tiom again

    (2) v’/v = (1-u)V/p — (alpha+beta+delta+p’/p) + r

  • alain­ton

    Ive been read­ing a fair bit in last few days of how a great debt reset, by what­ever means, might be our only option — het­ero­doxy in main­stream in a few short months. George Mag­nus, another mem­ber of the ‘I told you so’ club has said as much in the last 24 hrs.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8372004/EU-paralysis-drives-fresh-bond-rout.html

    Here’s Brain Rogers of Fator Secu­ri­ties

    ’ Until the world finally real­izes that the con­cen­tra­tion of lever­age that cur­rently sits on the bal­ance sheets of the world’s largest 15–20 banks is the source of our global insta­bil­ity and pro­tect­ing these same banks is lit­er­ally cut­ting off our nose to spite our face, we will con­tinue to suf­fer huge bouts of “risk-on/risk-off” mad­ness. …

    Per­haps the best option here is for the US and Europe to join hands and craft a global bal­ance sheet reor­ga­ni­za­tion, aka The Great Reset, bilat­er­ally. At over 50% of global GDP, any­thing the US and Europe did together would almost cer­tainly be influ­en­tial enough to bring the rest of the world on board. Think Bret­ton Woods III. Yes, this would mean debt write-offs and the nation­al­iza­tion of the banks. ’

    Indeed in my view either we elim­i­nate debt in a planned way or bank fail­ure and sov­er­eign debt default will do it any­way in a cate­sp­trophic way, espe­cially if it knocks he BRAIN economies over the edge, as seems likely through col­lapse in their export mar­kets.

    What might such a planned approach look like — some thoughts
    http://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/global-deflault-how-it-might-work-either-planned-or-unplanned/

    What we really need though is a model — to demon­strate how it could work. It is dif­fi­cult if not impos­si­ble to model debt con­ta­gion amongst banks with­out a lot of work on iffy data. But it would be pos­si­ble to model the effect of a col­lapse of some of the largest and most debt laden finan­cial insti­tu­tions, the cna­cel­la­tion of con­sumer debt and the refi­nanc­ing of small depos­i­tor bal­ance sheets through hor­i­zon­tal money — thoughts?

  • alain­ton

    Some breath­tak­ing com­pla­cency by Stephen Williamson on his blog in review­ing Quig­gan http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/2011/08/john-quiggin.html

    Like the “effi­cient mar­kets hypoth­e­sis,” DSGE has no impli­ca­tions, and there­fore can’t be wrong. Indeed DSGE encom­passes essen­tially all of mod­ern macro­eco­nom­ics. …Granted, some of our mod­els were not so help­ful in mak­ing sense of the finan­cial cri­sis. But oth­ers were, and some of the mod­els that were not help­ful could be (and are being) mod­i­fied so that they are.’

    I can see that quote being put into pow­er­point slides to amuse stu­dents already

  • alain­ton

    Oh and heres a sum­mary of the reac­tion on the blo­gos­phere to Williamson’s com­ment

    http://robertvienneau.blogspot.com/2011/08/quiggin-fortunate-in-his-enemies.html

  • I agree Andrew,

    As for mod­el­ling it, that is feasible–I might give that a try in a month or two when I have some spare time.

  • MMitchell

    Thanks War­ren,

    How­ever, I think I would still ben­e­fit from a more descrip­tive analy­sis of what is hap­pen­ing in your model. It is one thing to have the equa­tions, but quite another to under­stand the con­text and impli­ca­tions of them and their terms. But per­haps this really requires a more sub­stan­tial effort of under­stand­ing and read­ing yoru sources on my half.

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