I will be wrong on house prices

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When the hot air final­ly leaves this new hous­ing bub­ble, its defla­tion will be too slow to result in a 40 per cent fall from June 2010 to June 2025…

Right up until the ear­ly 20th cen­tu­ry, tak­ing an inno­cent stroll on the fore­shores of the US West Coast was haz­ardous for your health: you might sud­den­ly fall uncon­scious, and wake up to find your­self an unfree sea­man aboard a US clip­per bound for Chi­na. That’s where the term “Shang­hai­ing” orig­i­nat­ed: not because the crime hap­pened in Shang­hai, but because Shang­hai was nor­mal­ly the victim’s first port of call as a ship­ping slave.

How do I know? Because I looked it up on Wikipedia, which counts as research on such top­ics – though not on, say, the link between bush­fires and cli­mate change. Why did I both­er? Because my call on house prices was shang­haied by the prop­er­ty lob­by, and now that I am near cer­tain I’ll be wrong even as I defined it, I want to un-Shang­hai myself first.

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About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.