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(Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe beginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o < References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick)  /NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v|* 0` f33` 3f3` ___>?" dd@3v?" dd@  " @ `"  n?" dd@   @@``PT     @ ` `p>>N0 `t(    Zf3f8c?"00  ZXgֳgֳ1 ?"0<$D 0  T Click to edit Master title style! !h  H챍gֳgֳ ?" `<$ 0  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dD' =-g6B fade*<3<*dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(DM' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dDH' =%( D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dDM' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dDH' =%( D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dDM' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x+#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dDH' =%( D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x+#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dD ' =%(D1 ' =%(DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dD' =-g6B fade*<3<*dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* dD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* dD' =-g6B fade*<3<* dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*dD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*dD' =-g6B fade*<3<*dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(++0+d0 ++0+d0 ++0+d0 ++0+d0 ++0+ d0 ++0+ d0 ++0+d0 +HN g0N0    h (  h2 h S ~ f1?"6@ NNN?N ,$D  02 h S ~ f1?"6@ NNN?Ng 1,$D  0  h C xA   f1?"6@ NNN?NV v_,$D 0r h S 8 0   r h S  z   h C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N] ,$D06 h Hgֳgֳ ?0 <R ,$ 0 Add financial truisms:  Banks finance investment and charge interest Generates 3rd order system Debt to output ratio added:b//  }   h C xl  f1?"6@ NNN?N L x ,$  0 lNet real interest rate&0   b  h 3 rGP.H0I f1?"0@NNN?Nx  ,$D  0 h C xx+  f1?"6@ NNN?N x ,$ 0 y#Profit now net of interest payments&$0 $ $ b h@ 3 rGs)HHI Xf1?"0@NNN?Nx  ,$D  0H h 0޽h ?/@h h hhhh f33@?___PPT10?.z +;sD ?' y+= @B D>' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DI' =4@BB5BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*hD' =-g6B fade*<3<*hD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*hD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*hF%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*hFD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*hFa%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*hFaD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*ha}%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*ha}Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* hD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* hDM' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*hDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*hDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*hDM' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* hDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* hDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*hD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*h++0+h0 ++0+ h0 ++0+h0 +h h0N0 JB  l(  lr l S 00   r l S \1 /  L l H4gֳgֳ ? O,$ 0 RIf capitalists accumulate  negative debt *Z( *  l H8gֳgֳ ?<,$ 0 r$But if they don t& Z    l C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N8 F ,$D 0  l C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N4 <,$D 0H l 0޽h ? f33___PPT10.{0G+v\D' ;= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* l%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* lD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* lD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* lD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* lD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*l*Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* l%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* lD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* lD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* lD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* lD' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*l+p+0+l0 ++0+l0 +" i0N0   p(  pr p S HM0   r p S  NM  B p HOgֳgֳ ?< j/,$ 0 nAnd debt that  ratchets up over time to a debt-crisis&  8  p HHRgֳgֳ ?f i,$ 0 @How well does this simple model match empirical data? Not very& Because the empirical data is much worse!>6 *6 * j   p C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N J ,$D 0  p C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N " ,$D 0H p 0޽h ? f33___PPT10r.| +l>@D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* p%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* pD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* pD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* pD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* pD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*pDp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* p%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* pD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* pD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* pD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* pD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p6%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*p6D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p6@%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*p6@D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p@j%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*p@j+p+0+p0 ++0+p0 + j0N0 vn t(  tr t S \0   r t S |X /   t H^gֳgֳ ?ph,$ 0 Not for the first time in our history either Long term RBA data released last month in speech by Deputy Governor Ric Battellino: (augmented by data from RDP1999-06)&$$&u  &  t C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N,$D 0H t 0޽h ? f33___PPT10.}@+CDf' _= @B D!' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*tD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*tD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*tD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*tD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t-%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*t-D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t-%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*t-D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*t+8+0+t0 +jk0N0 9 1  x (  x x c $j0   9The Ponzi Economy   x S Q`(W>d?f P 6Melbourne Land BoomImpact"6@ NNN?N -,$D 0 x S E\"W>d?f P 6Roaring TwentiesImpact"6@ NNN?N -,$D 0N x c M28"W31D[?1890s DepressionImpact"6@ NNN?N}- ,$@0N  x c E?>"W31D[?Great DepressionImpact"6@ NNN?N # ) ,$@0  x S 2W>d?f P 6The Baby Boomers FolliesImpact"6@ NNN?Nj ,$D  0N  x S (W31D[?And Our Generation?Impact"6@ NNN?Nz ,$D  02  x C "WG@pppy2?Hv '<<P]What comes next?Impact"6@ NNN?N {,$@ 0  x C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N,$D 0H x 0޽h ? f33k\c\___PPT10C\.~0+'|D\' = @B D[' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* xD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* xD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* xD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* xD' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*xD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*xD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*xD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*xD' =%(Df' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(D' D=-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*x%(D' =eB]0,0; 0.14,0.36; 0.43,0.73; 0.71,0.91; 1.0,1.0+4 8?fCB#ppt_x-0.25BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*x%(D' =mBe0.0,0.0; 0.25,0.07; 0.50,0.2; 0.75,0.467; 1.0,1.0+4 8?lCB?B'#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/3CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<*x%(D' =B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?lCBB'#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/9CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<*x%(D' L=B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?nCBB)#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/27CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<*x%(,D' =B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?nCBB)#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/81CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<*x%(xD' =0l9 BBBpB*<3<*x%(D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%())?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%( D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%(:))?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%(jD' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%())?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%(D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*x%(*))?DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*xD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*xD' =-g6B fade*<3<*xD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*xD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*xD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*xD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*xD' =%(Df' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(D' D=-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<* x%(D' =eB]0,0; 0.14,0.36; 0.43,0.73; 0.71,0.91; 1.0,1.0+4 8?fCB#ppt_x-0.25BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* x%(D' =mBe0.0,0.0; 0.25,0.07; 0.50,0.2; 0.75,0.467; 1.0,1.0+4 8?lCB?B'#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/3CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<* x%(D' =B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?lCBB'#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/9CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<* x%(D' L=B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?nCBB)#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/27CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<* x%(,D' =B0, 0; 0.125,0.2665; 0.25,0.4; 0.375,0.465; 0.5,0.5; 0.625,0.535; 0.75,0.6; 0.875,0.7335; 1,1+4 8?nCBB)#ppt_y-sin(pi*$)/81CB?B*Y3>B ppt_y<* x%(xD' =0l9 BBBpB*<3<* x%(D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%())?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%( D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%(:))?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%(jD' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%())?D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%(D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* x%(*))?DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*xD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*xD' =-g6B fade*<3<*xD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* xD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* xD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* xD' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* xD' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* xD#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* xD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* xD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* xD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BB"BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(D ' X=+4 . B(-#ppt_w/2)0B(#ppt_x)*Y3>B ppt_x<* x%(D' =+4 . B00B -1.0*[3>Bxshear<* x%(X))?)?D' =0l9 BBBBBB*<3<* x%(X))?)?D2' =+4 )B-(#ppt_h/3+#ppt_w*0.1)*Y3>B ppt_x<* x%(X))?)?DC' =4@BB5BB%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* xD' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* xD' =-g6B fade*<3<* xD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* x%(+L. l0N0   |(  |r | S |0   r | S |3 M   | C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?NI ,$D 0 | s ~ f1?"6@ NNN?Np,$D 0 oClearly exponential process$0    | s  f1?"6@ NNN?N  ,$D 0 sBiggest bubble in our history&0     | H(gֳgֳ ?3 <,$ 0 DThere is a macroeconomic link: Aggregate demand = GDP + change in debt As debt rises, dependence on change in debt has risen Now accounts for 18% of aggregate demand Unemployment increasingly linked to change in debt& b^)4?)4  H | 0޽h ? f33$$___PPT10$.~1+uԽD#' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*|D' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*|D' =%(DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*|D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*|D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* |D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |G%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* |GD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |G}%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* |G}D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |}%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* |}D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* |++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+ |0 + m0N0  (  x  c $00   r   S    (   H@gֳgֳ ?%,$ 0 |TFormation of debt also increasingly dominated by speculation rather than investment: U    C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N  ,,$D 0   C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N  y8,$D 0H  0޽h ? f33"___PPT10.@F+|D' *q= @B DQ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* +8+0+ 0 +$ n0N0   V(  x  c $|0   r   S G,     HDgֳgֳ ?d DV ,$ 0 rJProportion that financed housing construction falls from 30% to under 10%: K    C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N ,$D 0   HG>gֳgֳ ?c * <h,$ 0 Back to modelling: Clear omissions from basic Minsky model are Endogenous money Speculative lending& &RR e    C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N j ,$D 0H  0޽h ? f33___PPT10j.@+|AD' W,= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*K%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*KDp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ?%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* ?D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ?P%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* ?PD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* Pe%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* Pe+p+0+0 ++0+ 0 +n q0N0 1(  r  S 0   r  S X P    C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N#) ,$D 04  H,gֳgֳ ?W ,$ 0 `But no accepted mathematical model of process One can be derived from double-entry book-keeping: a    fW+f1?"6@`NNN?Nil$D 0gT0T0 gSkip Systems Note&0   H  0޽h ? f33]U___PPT105.G:+!D' ]+= @B DT' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*.D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.a%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*.aD#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+p+0+0 ++0+0 + Q0N0  66P //5(  x  c $\0   ~  s *4q@  K*    # #"&%Z  <$D 0   C x‰ f1?"c  z0___PPT10:___PPT9 sSum*( " #    @`  C x@͉ f1?#" `. c  z0___PPT10:___PPT9 x- Flow 2* ( "  #    @`  C x@؉ f1?#" ` c . z0___PPT10:___PPT9 + Flow 2< ( " # +    @`  C xPى f1?"Rc z0___PPT10:___PPT9 r& *( " #    @`   C x4 f1?"c R z0___PPT10:___PPT9 r& *( " #    @`   C x f1?#" ` h . c z0___PPT10:___PPT9 r& *( " #    @`   C x$ f1?#" ` C. h z0___PPT10:___PPT9 & :( " # #   @`   C x $ f1?#" `. h c z0___PPT10:___PPT9 r& *( " #    @`   C x$ f1?#" `. Ch z0___PPT10:___PPT9 Stock Z:( " # #   @`  C xH#$ f1?"P Cz0___PPT10:___PPT9  System States *( " #   @`  C x,$ f1?"Ph z0___PPT10:___PPT9 h*( " #   @`  C x/$ f1?"h c z0___PPT10:___PPT9 sSum*( " #    @`  C x?$ f1?"C h z0___PPT10:___PPT9 z Accounting* ( "  #    @`  C xHB$ f1?"Rh c z0___PPT10:___PPT9 - Flow 1< ( " # +    @`  C xT$ f1?"h Rc z0___PPT10:___PPT9 y + Flow 1* ( "  #    @`  S ~DV$ f1?"h  z0___PPT10:___PPT9 Flows:( " # #   @`  C xh$ f1?"RC h z0___PPT10:___PPT9 Stock B:( " # #   @`  C xq$ f1?"CRh z0___PPT10:___PPT9 Stock A:( " # #   @`  S ~<|$ f1?" Pz0___PPT10:___PPT9 Dynamic System:( " ##   @`B  H8c ?" B  HԔ ?"  B  H8c ?" B  H8c ?"   B  H1 ?"P PB  H1 ?"h h B  H1 ?"P B  H1 ?"RCR B   B1 ?" C B ! B1 ?"c c B " B1 ?". C. B # B1 ?"C B $ B1 ?"C C % H`$gֳgֳ ? i,$ 0 To generate the model, add up each column Sum of column is  differential equation for stock**3*3 ] B &  `Df)?" 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Interest paid on deposit at rD% p.a. where rL > rD Third account needed to record this: Bank Deposit BD  # 2t<  #      6   3 rA f1?"* X,$D 0  3 rA  f1?" ,$D 0H  0޽h ? f33___PPT10.\n+ }DF' $= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* E%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<* ED' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Ex%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*ExD' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*xD' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D'  =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D#'  =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D'  =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D'  =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*+8+0+0 + t0N0 (  x  c $P$0  $ x  c $($  $   3 rA! f1?"'] ,$@ 0  c L$f1?"T2,$@ 0 6Interest flows: bank< >firm&0   ~  c $f1?"2T,$@ 0 2Wage flows: firm >workers&0     c p$f1?"T,$@ 0 :Interest flows: bank >workers&0     c  $f1?"TZ ,$D 0 PConsumption flows: bank & workers >firms&)0 ) )    C x f1?"   S A" R??"? ] j8 R$@ 0   H$gֳgֳ ?  ,$ 0 m)System of coupled differential equations:*Z* * j   HX$gֳgֳ ?V 0 i,$ 0 >System conservative: Amount of money (& debt) remains constantP%Z ZZ   ? j    @$  f1?#" `= c ,$D 0 b Add up terms& 0    d  s $  f1?#" `) ] <f ,$D 0 b Get equation& 0    R @ 3 rZGcHmIcf>?"c ] ,$D 0H  0޽h ?   f33rr___PPT10ur.  +hDYn' $= @B Dn' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(Dl' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D"' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DU' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D ' =%(D1 ' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =-g6B fade*<3<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D)' =4@BB BB%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* %D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %.%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* %.D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* .?%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* .?++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+0 ++0+0 +K u0N0    p (  x  c $!F0  F x  c $`"F  F h  # A#q} ,$D 0  H\$Fgֳgֳ ?  ,$ 0 Growth in output requires new money to Hire more workers Pay for intermediate inputs Simultaneous creation of new debt and new money:<'Z.Z1Z'.1    3 rA$ f1?" ,$@ 0  c =Jdf1?#" `,$D  0r @ 3 rZG"H`\I7fԔ?" O,$D  0   C x f1?"een   H,Fgֳgֳ ?  ,$  0 ~Violates  Walras  Law  Supports Schumpeter & Minsky on credit@Z@ @   c _f1?" ,$D 0 6New money flows: bank >firm&0      f I+f1?"6@`NNN?N SY l$D 0rT0T0 a Skip Quotes& 0    H  0޽h ?   f33??___PPT10>."p+BDk='  = @B D&=' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*'D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'9%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*'9D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*9U%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*9UD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*U%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*UDu ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D8' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* @%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* @D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_y-#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_wBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*D+ ' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+P+0+0 ++0+ 0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 + N0N0  $(  r  S FF0  F r  S FF i F H  0޽h ? f33___PPT10i. P>+D=' ]= @B +: v0N0 0(  x  c $WF0  F x  c $WF  F h  # A&DP k,$D 0  S A' T??"? i8 T$D 0>  HHZFgֳgֳ ?~  ,$ 0 DSystem dissipative: Rate of growth of money = rate of growth of debtEZ1 E H  0޽h ? f33___PPT10.#P5+NDJ' b= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*D' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*,D' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,E%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*,ED' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*+8+0+0 + w0N0 P$(  r  S 0   r  S P6 `  H  0޽h ? f33___PPT10i.0|+D=' ]= @B +C x0N0 p N(   r   S 10   r   S \ @     C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N ,$D 0   c .qf1?"7p,$@ 0 6Repayment flows: firm >bank&0      c 5qf1?"z,$@ 0 6Relending flows: bank >firm&0    {   c ?f1?"* q ,$@ 0 /Wages flow shown as share of production surplus&00 0 0 c   Hqqgֳgֳ ?@%:,$  0 sSurplus from production drives all net income P is turnover period s is share going to firms (1-s) goes to workers tZt t H   0޽h ? f33Z:R:___PPT102:.1R}+=D7' ^= @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(%(Dy' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =-g6B fade*<3<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =-g6B fade*<3<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<* D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* D' =-g6B fade*<3<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* .%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* .D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* .C%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* .CD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* C]%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* C]D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ]t%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* ]t+0+0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 ++0+ 0 +v" y0N0 4,((  (r ( S )0   r ( S q P  h ( # Az ,,$D 0( ( Hqgֳgֳ ? ,$ 0 |Surprise surprise! Bank income rises if Loans are repaid slowly (or not at all) Repaid money is recycled more quickly; and More new money is created Bank profits by extending more credit& Structural explanation for real world phenomenon of rising debt to GDP ratio<(ZmZtZ(mt  H ( 0޽h ? f33___PPT10.2=++^DF' & = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*(D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*((%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*((D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*((P%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*((PD' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(P{%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*(P{D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*({%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*({D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*(D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*( %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*( +8+0+(0 + z0N0 0$(  0r 0 S pq0  q r 0 S q ` q H 0 0޽h ? f33___PPT10i.4P +D=' ]= @B +Fh {0N0    8j (  8r 8 S Q0  Q r 8 S tQD2 ] Q  8 C xA  f1?"6@ NNN?N=~ 9 ,$@ 0\ 8 c |Iqf1?"<~ p,$@ 0 fPhysical Capital&0   V 8 c Uqf1?"~ pm,$@ 0 ` Money Wage& 0    U 8 c Qf1?"|~ p`,$@ 0 _ Inflation& 0    ` 8 c Qf1?"`~ pD ,$D 0 jLagged wage response&0   p  8 c  Jf1?"I u ,$@ 0 z$Technical change & Population growth&%0 % %   8 H qgֳgֳ ?D2  EGenerates open cyclical model  h  8 # A q= ,$D 0h  8 # A z ,$D 0  8 Hqgֳgֳ ?9 <,$ 0 With  Phillips surface rather than Phillips curve inflation and unemployment dynamics W H 8 0޽h ? f33ZZ___PPT10Z.5 )+aD(W' c= @B DV' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D#' =%(DA#' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* 8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 8D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*8D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =-g6B fade*<3<*8D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*8D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =-g6B fade*<3<*8D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*8D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =-g6B fade*<3<*8D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<*8D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<*8D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<*8D' =-g6B fade*<3<*8D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =%(D' =%(D=' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =0l9 CCBB*<3<* 8D' =%(D' =%(DP' =A@BB5BB0B%(D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_wBCBB*Y3>B ppt_w<* 8D' =+4 8?PCB ppt_hBCBB*Y3>B ppt_h<* 8D' =-g6B fade*<3<* 8D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(Dp' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* 8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 8D ' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8W%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* 8WD' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<* 8D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 8D' =+4 8?RCB?BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 8++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+80 ++0+ 80 ++0+ 80 ++0+ 80 ++0+ 80 + |0N0 OG@(  @r @ S Q0  Q r @ S Q / Q  @ HaQgֳgֳ ?/p\,$ 0 Debt burden; Aggregate demand effect of debt reduction Serious downturn inevitable Counter forces China boom Possible global warming/peak oil inflation&b6b6   @ C xA   f1?"6@ NNN?N,$D 0H @ 0޽h ? 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0`303,31, Would you like a credit card with that? / 0DArialNew Roman``hU0"DComic Sans MSn``hU0B DTimes New Roman``hU0G0.  @n?" dd@  @@`` PI#         #      | # #   0;$DV           2$N^b Lle2${iLKnj(+ 2$UOX .=52$L9dRXA>r 2$y:Co:b(2$hY9$O:)2$Qhسe~2$dkx >} x~(2$ٿhcc;}2$QBm`# oj-E#2${e)cQGM2$"2DDf/@2gE2$a/U84 ܧ 2$0æIjG2$h'zKűV9B֟ -2$U3R> 2$4X]:"H 2$YԐ^KM!-KxP2$;8EEhn2WeF32$a2K,~O kO2$bajn KW$2$"YZdNVsyg b$$$2$ln+!Za)e im$2$:bgZ eڲTt$2$ZN$}&T6g.'b$cV_1d2$RHb4`"${BouGZ,V <"$֤ԩǍ 7T10b$?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~%nancial Instability Hypothesisgb Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free 0p297,24, Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free R Would you like a credit card with that? 0`303,31, Would you like a credit card with that? ^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.htmlthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htmthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm/PowerPoint Document(T DocumentSummaryInformation88 tion.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 EquationRIEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 EquationTJEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 Equation[@Financial Instability Hypothesis0L274,7,Financial Instability Hypothesisgb Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free 0p297,24, Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free rJRepayment and Re-lending of Principal0X302,30,Repayment and Re-lending of Principal/ 0DArialNew Roman``hU0"DComic Sans MSn``hU0B DTimes New Roman``hU0G0.  @n?" dd@  @@`` PI#         #      | # #   0;$DV           2$N^b Lle2${iLKnj(+ 2$UOX .=52$L9dRXA>r 2$y:Co:b(2$hY9$O:)2$Qhسe~2$dkx >} x~(2$ٿhcc;}2$QBm`# oj-E#2${e)cQGM2$"2DDf/@2gE2$a/U84 ܧ 2$0æIjG2$h'zKűV9B֟ -2$U3R> 2$4X]:"H 2$YԐ^KM!-KxP2$;8EEhn2WeF32$a2K,~O kO2$bajn KW$2$"YZdNVsyg b$$$2$ln+!Za)e im$2$:bgZ eڲTt$2$ZN$}&T6g.'b$cV_1d2$RHb4`"${BouGZ,V <"$֤ԩǍ 7T10b$Keynes  HWell-known (if neglected) views on uncertainty Formalised in Kalecki s  principle of increasing risk (Kalecki 1937, 1990: 285-293) Investment limited not by declining marginal efficiency of capital but increasing financial risk Also post-General Theory  two-price level analysis The scale of production of capital assets  depends, of course, on the relation between their costs of production and the prices which they are expected to realise in the market. (Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe beginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o < References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick)  /NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v|r !Av1X}(   &Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation'Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Eq 0DArialNew Roman``00"DComic Sans MSn``00B DTimes New Roman``00G0.  @n?" dd@  @@`` PIOh+'0 hp   , 8DL Modelling the Monetary Circuit Steve Keen(Lecture_09_CircuitistModelOfMoney2006 Steve Keen297Microsoft Office PowerPoint@>] @ů{:@YGH g  U  yf--$xx--'3--$ r xIxIr r--'--$ * 88* *--'--$ --'--$ --'--$          --'--$ --'--$ --'--$ --'--$ --'--$ """###"""--'--$ &&&'''&&&--'--$ PtOtOuOuPuPuPuPtPt--'--$ ZtZtZuZuZu[u[u[tZt--'--$ etdtdudueueueuetet--'--$ ptotououpupupuptpt--'--$ ztztzuzuzu{u{u{tzt--'--$ ttuuuuutt--'--$ ttuuuuutt--'--$ ttuuuuutt--'--$ --'@BComic Sans MS-. U2 44Developing a monetary model of financial instability."System:-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 4.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 OJ Steve Keen.-@BComic Sans MS-. 12 X*University of Western Sydney.- Foundations in Marx, Schumpeter, Fisher, & Keynes z)((2()n;2:Marx Theoretical: a  dialectical theory of prices  What ... is & the price of the loaned capital?... What the buyer of an ordinary commodity buys is its use-value; what he pays for is its value. What the borrower of money buys is likewise its use-value as capital; but what does he pay for? Surely not its price, or value, as in the case of ordinary commodities. (Marx 1894: 352) Colourful: a sceptical view of banking:  ...The credit system & gives this class of parasites the fabulous power, not only to periodically despoil industrial capitalists, but also to interfere in actual production in a most dangerous manner and this gang knows nothing about production and has nothing to do with it." (Marx 1894: 544-45)d.L(*(.F(*8z  ; ; Schumpeter  Well-known cyclical view of capitalism Creative destruction, clusters of innovations, etc. Less well-known endogenous view of credit:  [I]n so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106)  this again leads us to & the heresy that money, and & other means of payment, perform an essential function&  (95)l'4+t'4+u=Fisher  Debt-deflation theory of Great Depressions: Non-equilibrium analysis:  New disturbances are, humanly speaking, sure to occur, so that, in actual fact, any variable is almost always above or below the ideal equilibrium (1933: 339)  two dominant factors are  over-indebtedness to start with and deflation following soon after  Thus over-investment and over-speculation are often important; but they would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money& I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt. (Fisher 1933: 340-341)p,ZZZ`Z&Z,`&  m >Keynes  HWell-known (if neglected) views on uncertainty Formalised in Kalecki s  principle of increasing risk (Kalecki 1937, 1990: 285-293) Investment limited not by declining marginal efficiency of capital but increasing financial risk Also post-General Theory  two-price level analysis The scale of production of capital assets  depends, of course, on the relation between their costs of production and the prices which they are expected to realise in the market. (Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe be#        ginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o < References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick) More to be supplied by conference&   /NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v|K u0N0    p (  x  c $Tnw 0  w  x  c $,ow   w  h  # A#q} ,$D 0  Hpw gֳgֳ ?  ,$ 0 Growth in output requires new money to Hire more workers Pay for intermediate inputs Simultaneous creation of new debt and new money:<'Z.Z1Z'.1    3 rA$ f1?" ,$@ 0  c =Jdf1?#" `,$D  0r @ 3 rZG"H`\I7fԔ?" 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f33___PPT10i.qc+D=' = @B +r u<COՋsdQEv1ۂ(   &Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation'Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation(Equation EquatioRoot EntrydO)dPictures{fCurrent User\>SummaryInformation( $8"     k#c&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abefghijlmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~  !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345679:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[]^_`abcfrom nothing, but your cheques ain t free 1303,31, Would you like a credit card with that? "_0 Steve KeenSteve Keen0http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html;http://www #      | # #   0;$DV          !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345679:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|~       2$N^b Lle2${iLKnj(+ 2$UOX .=52$L9dRXA>r 2$y:Co:b(2$hY9$O:)2$Qhسe~2$dkx >} x~(2$ٿhcc;}2$QBm`# oj-E#2${e)cQGM2$"2DDf/@2gE2$a/U84 ܧ 2$0æIjG2$h'zKűV9B֟ -2$U3R> 2$4X]:"H 2$YԐ^KM!-KxP2$;8EEhn2WeF32$a2K,~O kO2$bajn KW$2$"YZdNVsyg b$$$2$ln+!Za)e im$2$:bgZ eڲTt$2$ZN$}&T6g.'b$cV_1d2$RHb4`"${BouGZ,V <"$֤ԩǍ 7T10b$Keynes  HWell-known (if neglected) views on uncertainty Formalised in Kalecki s  principle of increasing risk (Kalecki 1937, 1990: 285-293) Investment limited not by declining marginal efficiency of capital but increasing financial risk Also post-General Theory  two-price level analysis The scale of production of capital assets  depends, of course, on the relation between their costs of production and the prices which they are expected to realise in the market. (Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe beginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o <Selected References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick) Charles Whalen,  The U.S. Credit Crunch of 2007: A Minsky Moment , http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html Some web-accessible references to Minsky s work: http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm Some web-accessible references on endogenous money http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/Lectures/Index.htm#FETi;38i;38   /  ":  3 0  T07T0i/NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v| o0N0 @ X$(  Xr X S H0   r X S   `  H X 0޽h ? f33___PPT10i.qc+D=' \= @B +rF<Ev1;(  .debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm%306,34,Meanwhile, in the real world& &Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation'Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation(Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 EquationRIEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 EquationTJEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 Equation[@Financial Instability Hypothesis0L274,7,Financial Instability Hypothesisgb Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free 0p297,24, Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free R Would you like a credit card with that? 0`303,31, Would you like a credit card with that? ^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.htmlthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htmthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm/ 0DArialNew Roman``00"DComic Sans MSn``00B DTimes New Roman``00G0.  @n?" dd@  @@`` PI#         #      | # #   0;$DV           2$N^b Lle2${iLKnj(+ 2$UOX .=52$L9dRXA>r 2$y:Co:b(2$hY9$O:)2$Qhسe~2$dkx >} x~(2$ٿhcc;}2$QBm`# oj-E#2${e)cQGM2$"2DDf/@2gE2$a/U84 ܧ 2$0æIjG2$h'zKűV9B֟ -2$U3R> 2$4X]:"H 2$YԐ^KM!-KxP2$;8EEhn2WeF32$a2K,~O kO2$bajn KW$2$"YZdNVsyg b$$$2$ln+!Za)e im$2$:bgZ eڲTt$2$ZN$}&T6g.'b$cV_1d2$RHb4`"${BouGZ,V <"$֤ԩǍ 7T10b$Keynes  HWell-known (if neglected) views on uncertainty Formalised in Kalecki s  principle of increasing risk (Kalecki 1937, 1990: 285-293) Investment limited not by declining marginal efficiency of capital but increasing financial risk Also post-General Theory  two-price level analysis The scale of production of capital assets  depends, of course, on the relation between their costs of production and the prices which they are expected to realise in the market. (Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe beginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o <Selected References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick) Charles Whalen,  The U.S. Credit Crunch of 2007: A Minsky Moment , http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html Some web-accessible references on Minsky s work: http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm A Google Scholar search on Minsky http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=hyman+minsky&hl=en&lr= Some web-accessible references on endogenous money http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/Lectures/Index.htm#FEi;">38i;">38     /  ":         3 0  T07T0i/NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v| o0N0 @ X$(  Xr X S H0   r X S   `  H X 0޽h ? f33___PPT10i.qc+D=' \= @B +r<P R v1(  X &Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation'Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation(Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 EquationRIEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 EquationTJEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 6.0 Equation[@Financial Instability Hypothesis0L274,7,Financial Instability Hypothesisgb Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free 0p297,24, Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free R Would you like a credit card with that? 0`303,31, Would you like a credit card with that? ^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html^http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.htmlthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htmthttp://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm:Meanwhile, in the real world& 0H306,34,Meanwhile, in the real world& / 0DArialNew Roman``00"DComic Sans MSn``00B DTimes New Roman``00G0.  @n?" dd@  @@`` PI#         #      | # #   0;$DV           2$N^b Lle2${iLKnj(+ 2$UOX .=52$L9dRXA>r 2$y:Co:b(2$hY9$O:)2$Qhسe~2$dkx >} x~(2$ٿhcc;}2$QBm`# oj-E#2${e)cQGM2$"2DDf/@2gE2$a/U84 ܧ 2$0æIjG2$h'zKűV9B֟ -2$U3R> 2$4X]:"H 2$YԐ^KM!-KxP2$;8EEhn2WeF32$a2K,~O kO2$bajn KW$2$"YZdNVsyg b$$$2$ln+!Za)e im$2$:bgZ eڲTt$2$ZN$}&T6g.'b$cV_1d2$RHb4`"${BouGZ,V <"$֤ԩǍ 7T10b$Keynes  HWell-known (if neglected) views on uncertainty Formalised in Kalecki s  principle of increasing risk (Kalecki 1937, 1990: 285-293) Investment limited not by declining marginal efficiency of capital but increasing financial risk Also post-General Theory  two-price level analysis The scale of production of capital assets  depends, of course, on the relation between their costs of production and the prices which they are expected to realise in the market. (Keynes 1937a: 217) All blended by Minsky to produce  Financial Instability Hypothesis :/Ua4*E/Ua   *E@=  !   5 Financial Instability Hypothesis  5Economy in historical time Debt-induced recession in recent past Firms and banks conservative re debt/equity ratios, asset valuation Only conservative projects are funded Recovery means conservative projects succeed Firms and banks revise risk premiums Accepted debt/equity ratio rises Assets revalued upwards&996The Euphoric EconomySelf-fulfilling expectations Decline in risk aversion causes increase in investment Investment causes economy to grow faster Asset prices rise Speculation on assets becomes profitable Increased willingness to lend increases money supply Credit money endogenous Riskier investments enabled, more asset speculation Emergence of  Ponzi financiers Cash flow always less than debt servicing costs Profits made by selling assets on a rising market Interest-rate insensitive demand for finance7))54 7))5  4 7The Assets Boom and BustInitial profitability of asset speculation: reduces debt and interest rate sensitivity drives up supply of and demand for finance market interest rates rise But eventually: rising interest rates make many once conservative projects speculative forces non-Ponzi investors to attempt to sell assets to service debts entry of new sellers floods asset markets rising trend of asset prices falters or reversesL,q,q8Crisis and AftermathPonzi financiers go bankrupt: can no longer sell assets for a profit debt servicing on assets far exceeds cash flows Asset prices collapse, drastically increasing debt/equity ratios Endogenous expansion of money supply reverses Investment evaporates; economic growth slows or reverses Economy enters a debt-induced recession ... High Inflation? Debts repaid by rising price level Economic growth remains low: Stagflation Renewal of cycle once debt levels reducedLWvWv9Crisis and AftermathsLow Inflation? Debts cannot be repaid Chain of bankruptcy affects even non-speculative businesses Economic activity remains suppressed: a Depression Big Government? Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government enables debts to be repaid Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced Persuasive verbal model; but no successful mathematical rendition My research objectivetwBwB ?Mathematical Foundations  Goodwin s  predator-prey growth cycle model: Verbal truisms:  Workers share of output will rise if (real) wage demands exceed sum of population growth and labour productivity  Employment will rise if the rate of economic growth exceeds the rate of population growth In mathematical form, two coupled differential equations:V.ZZZ:Z.: G @Mathematical Foundations  Generates closed cycle:  AThe beginnings of chaos  dTwo classes of outcome Convergence to equilibrium& *ZZ 3 BThe beginnings of chaos  $An unstable cycle&   C The Ponzi Economy  Australia s private debt to GDP ratio has risen exponentially at 4.2% p.a. for over 43 years:$^K ^ D!E"The Ponzi Economy  BCorrelation isn t causation, but& $" " G$The Ponzi Economy  Correlation debt s contribution to aggregate demand of to unemployment initially trivial Exceeds -0.9 by early 1980suZu u H%Ponzi Households  ,Lending for housing rises from 5-25% of GDP:-Z- - K'Endogenous Money  Exponential growth in credit despite regulatory regime implies endogenous (market-determined) money Common belief in non-neoclassical schools of thought Empirically supported by Kydland & Prescott:&   $A simple approach to dynamic systems % $Each column represents a stock (system state) Each row entry represents a flow between stocks Specify relations between system states across rows&   L('Money creation in a pure credit economy ( Stylized linear model with three (classes of) agents: Banks: lend money to firms record all transactions Firms: own factories that produce output; and Workers: work in factories. Model starts with loan $L from bank to firm Created  out of thin air  simply simultaneous recording of asset (debt) and liability (deposit) in bank s double-entry book-keeping system:6-( ,6-(  m M)b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Loan an asset of bank Simultaneously creates liability of money in firm s deposit account:$[7 [ N*b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Full system is:Z  O+b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 System stable but no growth:Z  b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 Schumpeter  in so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise & it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence... (Schumpeter 1934: 106) Minsky  If income is to grow, the financial markets & must generate an aggregate demand that & is ever rising. For real aggregate demand to be increasing, . . . it is necessary that current spending plans, summed over all sectors, be greater than current received income& It follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets. (Minsky 1963 [1982]: 6)X    P,b Money from nothing, but your cheques ain t free  2 "Money and debt now grow over time:#Z# # k-%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & :Model so far omits loan repayment Easily added by including  seignorage free bank  Vault Repaid loans have to go somewhere If into bank deposit account, bank can pay for goods using its money as  IOU s NOT the same as re-lending deposited  fiat money Pure credit money system requires  quarantining of bank asset accounts from income (deposit) accounts Bank assets now sum of Outstanding Loans Loan Repaymentsv[q2g"[q2g"@=     l.%Repayment and Re-lending of Principal & YRepayments of Loans; and Recycling of Loans Transfer money from income to asset accounts:*,Z.Z,. Z m/R Would you like a credit card with that?  * hCan now see what happens to bank income as New Money is created Loans are repaid Repaid money is re-lent*+Z>Z+> i q0For future research  Combine two models to produce monetary Minsky model Speculative investment motivated by increase in asset price index Adds to debt; does not add to productive capacity First stage: a monetary Goodwin model Also includes Phillips s  full Monty Wage change related to Rate of employment Rate of change of employment Lagged response to inflation:tv2&&Nv2&& N Y s1A monetary Goodwin model  1Now six system states But remarkably simple model 2 u2:Meanwhile, in the real world&   nCombination of record Debt/GDP, high nominal interest rates and low inflation means huge real interest burden: o <Selected References  Joseph Schumpeter (1934), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (republished 2004 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick) Charles Whalen,  The U.S. Credit Crunch of 2007: A Minsky Moment , http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html Some web-accessible references on Minsky s work: http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/FinancialInstability.htm A Google Scholar search on Minsky http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=hyman+minsky&hl=en&lr= Some web-accessible references on endogenous money http://www.debunkingeconomics.com/Lectures/Index.htm#FEi;">38i;">38     /  ":         3 0  T07T0i/NQQ\R]S^T_U`VaWbXcYdZe[f\g]h^i_j`kalbmcndoeqfrgshtiujvnwoxpyrzt{v|L z0N0 D<0(  0r 0 S ,)0  ) r 0 S )   )  0  f`*\f1?"6@`NNN?N l$D 0T0T0 ` Skip Model& 0    H 0 0޽h ? f33  ___PPT10p .4P +?D ' \= @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0+p+0+00 ++0+00 +rR q 2R  v1Root EntrydO) dPictures{fCurrent User\8SummaryInformation( $8      !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345679:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|~  !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345679:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[]^_`abcfrom nothing, but your cheques ain t free 1303,31, Would you like a credit card with that?  _0 M9600033M9600033een0http://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levppb/ppb_92.html;http://www"     k#c&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abefghijlmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~