Talk to the Fabian Forum: The Global Financial Crisis: How bad will it get?

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Broad­cast on March 11 2009 by ABC Radio National Big Ideas

A blog mem­ber has kindly pro­duced a tran­script of the off-the-cuff talk I gave at this forum. I’ve made minor cor­rec­tions to the punc­tu­a­tion below, but the text is oth­er­wise as deliv­ered on the night with­out speak­ing notes–so there are some gram­mat­i­cal slips. For those who want to lis­ten to this alone–without also lis­ten­ing to Bernie Fraser beforehand–here is a link to the MP3 of my talk.

Steve Keen’s Debtwatch No. 33 April 2009: Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Statistics

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Lies, damned lies, and sta­tis­tics” is part of a phrase attrib­uted to Ben­jamin Dis­raeli and pop­u­larised in the United States by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and sta­tis­tics.” The state­ment refers to the per­sua­sive power of num­bers, the use of sta­tis­tics to bol­ster weak argu­ments, and the ten­dency of peo­ple to dis­par­age sta­tis­tics that do not sup­port their posi­tions. (Wikipedia)

Big Ideas: In place of a podcast

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I’m still hav­ing dif­fi­cul­ties get­ting my pod­casts up and run­ning at the moment, so in lieu here is a link to the ABC Radio National Big Ideas record­ing of an Evatt Foun­da­tion forum on the Global Finan­cial Cri­sis.

Speak­ers were Bernie Fraser, ex-Governor of the Reserve Bank of Aus­tralia, myself, and Garry Weiss, a cor­po­rate lawyer (this is also the speak­ing order).

FHB Boost is Australia’s “Sub-prime Lite”

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The First Home Own­ers Boost (as it is offi­cially known) has cer­tainly given the Gov­ern­ment bang for its buck. By spend­ing roughly $200 mil­lion of its own money to date, it has added about $3 bil­lion to the hous­ing mar­ket. But the addi­tional $2.8 bil­lion has come from increased mort­gage debt taken on by those most vul­ner­a­ble to a seri­ous eco­nomic down­turn, at a time when the lat­est “unex­pected” increase in unem­ploy­ment indi­cates that, like it or not, the global down­turn is com­ing our way.