Mortgage acceleration & house price changes—the result

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As I wrote just before the data was released, I expect­ed house prices to rise at a lev­el “either below or bare­ly above CPI infla­tion”:

The ABS House Price Index Data will pub­lished at 11.30am today. My Mort­gage Accel­er­a­tor data indi­cates that it will show a fur­ther rise in house prices—though at an anaemic lev­el of either below or bare­ly above CPI infla­tion.

In fact, the num­bers came out spot on at the rate of CPI infla­tion over the pre­vi­ous year:

Here’s the chart I pub­lished before the fig­ures were released:

The cor­re­la­tion coef­fi­cient between these two series was 0.853 before the most recent data; it has now dropped slight­ly to 0.84.

I’ll pub­lish more on this top­ic short­ly.