Mortgage acceleration & house price changes—the result
As I wrote just before the data was released, I expected house prices to rise at a level “either below or barely above CPI inflation”:
The ABS House Price Index Data will published at 11.30am today. My Mortgage Accelerator data indicates that it will show a further rise in house prices—though at an anaemic level of either below or barely above CPI inflation.
In fact, the numbers came out spot on at the rate of CPI inflation over the previous year:
Here’s the chart I published before the figures were released:
The correlation coefficient between these two series was 0.853 before the most recent data; it has now dropped slightly to 0.84.
I’ll publish more on this topic shortly.