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	<title>Comments on: A HELP debt bubble?</title>
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	<description>Analysing the Collapse of the Global Debt Bubble</description>
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		<title>By: wardust</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-39216</link>
		<dc:creator>wardust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2012 06:42:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-39216</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The problem isn&#039;t as severe as Lawson is indicating. Repayment schedules are completely reliant on the capacity-to-pay of the individual. I&#039;d like to see some statistics on how much of a burden it is relative to the JOB THESE PEOPLE GO INTO (as opposed to overall wage growth/decline).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem isn’t as severe as Lawson is indicating. Repayment schedules are completely reliant on the capacity-to-pay of the individual. I’d like to see some statistics on how much of a burden it is relative to the JOB THESE PEOPLE GO INTO (as opposed to overall wage growth/decline).</p>
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		<title>By: tunalure</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38996</link>
		<dc:creator>tunalure</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2012 03:52:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38996</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I can relate to this well. 
I am about to complete a masters course that has taken 1.5 years to complete. Total HELP debt owed is nearly $40,000. Compare this to my undergrad, that took 3 years, and cost $15,00 completed 7 years ago. I had a lot more face to face and practicals in my undergrad but it was commonwealth supported.
My issue is that I cannot see where that money has been spent on my education. I can however see that the universities are buying up real estate and renovating buildings even though the current buildings are not fully utilised. It would appear that this is where all the money is going. 
While I would not call it a bubble yet, it is definitely not providing value for money and is most likely unsustainable.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can relate to this well.<br />
I am about to complete a masters course that has taken 1.5 years to complete. Total HELP debt owed is nearly $40,000. Compare this to my undergrad, that took 3 years, and cost $15,00 completed 7 years ago. I had a lot more face to face and practicals in my undergrad but it was commonwealth supported.<br />
My issue is that I cannot see where that money has been spent on my education. I can however see that the universities are buying up real estate and renovating buildings even though the current buildings are not fully utilised. It would appear that this is where all the money is going.<br />
While I would not call it a bubble yet, it is definitely not providing value for money and is most likely unsustainable.</p>
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		<title>By: Joseph Gauthier</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38908</link>
		<dc:creator>Joseph Gauthier</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Jul 2012 22:47:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Glenn,

Thanks for the thoughtful response -- I&#039;m glad you decided to look into what I said before jumping the gun. :-]

The student loan issue varies by country, so it is an issue that requires quite a bit of examination (both current and historical). Like you said, Congress eliminated the federal guarantee for privately issued student loans in April 2010. Honestly, I wish I had been paying attention to this issue back then because it would have been an easy way to make a killing in the stock market. Consider Corinthian Colleges Inc, which is one of the largest for-profit higher education institutions in the US: http://www.google.com/finance?q=corinthian+college

And, just take a look at what happens to the stock price after April 2010. One thing worth looking into is how students are paying for these for-profit colleges now. To my knowledge, students are able to receive federal loans to attend these for-profit colleges, which means the default risk has been transferred to the federal government (granted, the default risk always rested with them since they guaranteed the loans, but yeah). If one were able to find a for-profit college that was providing its own students with loans, it would probably be good to delve in the books a bit because they probably have quite a few bad loans that will materialize on their books. Just an idea I suppose...

And yes, I can recall when I attended the University of Texas at Austin that I obtained my loan through Bank of America. That was in 2007. But, in 2010, I began to obtain my loans through the Department of Education instead.

If you aren&#039;t aware, the interest rates for federal loans have also been reduced from 6.8% to 3.4% in the past several years. To be honest, I don&#039;t think there was anything wrong with the law that was passed. In the end, the default risk rests with the government anyways (since they guaranteed the loans), so why allow the banks to collect these profits if the government is going to have to pay out in the end anyways? It&#039;s better for the government to take the profits as well, at least when they have to bail the program out, they will have made some money off of it. There&#039;s a good chance they will end up losing money though.

And yes, it did not solve the underlying problem because Congress essentially did not change anything. All they did was transfer the profits from the bank to the government. The default risk always rested with the government.

As for the root cause of why education is so expensive, I tend to believe it is because it is so highly subsidized, but I&#039;m not going to bother writing more as to why I think that is.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Glenn,</p>
<p>Thanks for the thoughtful response — I’m glad you decided to look into what I said before jumping the gun. :-]</p>
<p>The student loan issue varies by country, so it is an issue that requires quite a bit of examination (both current and historical). Like you said, Congress eliminated the federal guarantee for privately issued student loans in April 2010. Honestly, I wish I had been paying attention to this issue back then because it would have been an easy way to make a killing in the stock market. Consider Corinthian Colleges Inc, which is one of the largest for-profit higher education institutions in the US: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=corinthian+college" rel="nofollow">http://www.google.com/finance?q=corinthian+college</a></p>
<p>And, just take a look at what happens to the stock price after April 2010. One thing worth looking into is how students are paying for these for-profit colleges now. To my knowledge, students are able to receive federal loans to attend these for-profit colleges, which means the default risk has been transferred to the federal government (granted, the default risk always rested with them since they guaranteed the loans, but yeah). If one were able to find a for-profit college that was providing its own students with loans, it would probably be good to delve in the books a bit because they probably have quite a few bad loans that will materialize on their books. Just an idea I suppose…</p>
<p>And yes, I can recall when I attended the University of Texas at Austin that I obtained my loan through Bank of America. That was in 2007. But, in 2010, I began to obtain my loans through the Department of Education instead.</p>
<p>If you aren’t aware, the interest rates for federal loans have also been reduced from 6.8% to 3.4% in the past several years. To be honest, I don’t think there was anything wrong with the law that was passed. In the end, the default risk rests with the government anyways (since they guaranteed the loans), so why allow the banks to collect these profits if the government is going to have to pay out in the end anyways? It’s better for the government to take the profits as well, at least when they have to bail the program out, they will have made some money off of it. There’s a good chance they will end up losing money though.</p>
<p>And yes, it did not solve the underlying problem because Congress essentially did not change anything. All they did was transfer the profits from the bank to the government. The default risk always rested with the government.</p>
<p>As for the root cause of why education is so expensive, I tend to believe it is because it is so highly subsidized, but I’m not going to bother writing more as to why I think that is.</p>
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		<title>By: grashopper</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38810</link>
		<dc:creator>grashopper</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2012 01:08:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38810</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The fallacy of looking at overall figures...
Having studied in the 90&#039;s and again in the recent past, I have not seen the cost of individual units rising all the greatly (ie lowest tier unit at RMIT in 1991 cost not that much less than its equivalent unit in 2011 - IIRC the difference is roughly 25%- easily checked ) - exceptions do occur - especially in the in &quot;in demand&quot; courses on the highest tier (medicine &amp; engineering.

Also overlooked is the @ $1800pa HELP rebates/forgiveness for teachers and nurses (all you need to do is work as a nurse or teacher for 2 weeks in the year to qualify). 

Another factor in the rise is the &quot;melbourne&quot; model which increases the cost of doing a professional degree by almost mandating a masters as the only &quot;useful&quot; profesional degree - I also now see 1 year GradDips deprecated in favour of masters degrees.

Sadly what has happened is that in my field (teaching) the unis in all are pumping out many times the primary and secondary PE and art &amp; music teachers than can be reasonably employed. The last I heard from a lecturer who taught me &amp; is now in Qld) is even if every primary teacher over 50 left tomorrow in Queensland and had to be replaced  there would still be some 1500 graduates excess to need, and that is even before the class of 2012 graduates. 

This means that there will be many graduates who will easily reach the threshold working in say, retail, who will be repaying a degree they receive no &quot;considerable personal private benefit&quot; (a quote form Amanda Vanstone when interviewed on HECs on tv many years ago) from.

Also overlooked is the fact that the loan is repaid through the taxation system ie as my income increased the repayment has also increased (actually swallowing up half of of my 2.5% increase)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fallacy of looking at overall figures…<br />
Having studied in the 90’s and again in the recent past, I have not seen the cost of individual units rising all the greatly (ie lowest tier unit at RMIT in 1991 cost not that much less than its equivalent unit in 2011 — IIRC the difference is roughly 25%- easily checked ) — exceptions do occur — especially in the in “in demand” courses on the highest tier (medicine &amp; engineering.</p>
<p>Also overlooked is the @ $1800pa HELP rebates/forgiveness for teachers and nurses (all you need to do is work as a nurse or teacher for 2 weeks in the year to qualify). </p>
<p>Another factor in the rise is the “melbourne” model which increases the cost of doing a professional degree by almost mandating a masters as the only “useful” profesional degree — I also now see 1 year GradDips deprecated in favour of masters degrees.</p>
<p>Sadly what has happened is that in my field (teaching) the unis in all are pumping out many times the primary and secondary PE and art &amp; music teachers than can be reasonably employed. The last I heard from a lecturer who taught me &amp; is now in Qld) is even if every primary teacher over 50 left tomorrow in Queensland and had to be replaced  there would still be some 1500 graduates excess to need, and that is even before the class of 2012 graduates. </p>
<p>This means that there will be many graduates who will easily reach the threshold working in say, retail, who will be repaying a degree they receive no “considerable personal private benefit” (a quote form Amanda Vanstone when interviewed on HECs on tv many years ago) from.</p>
<p>Also overlooked is the fact that the loan is repaid through the taxation system ie as my income increased the repayment has also increased (actually swallowing up half of of my 2.5% increase)</p>
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		<title>By: ken</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38798</link>
		<dc:creator>ken</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jul 2012 02:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38798</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[During the noughties there were changes to the education environment that would  explain the changes. First there were increases in the amounts charged. These are unlikely to change greatly, until there is a change in government at which time there may be greater flexibility for universities to charge, but this will be unlikely to be limitless. Another important change was the expansion of postgraduate courses, which must be getting close to equilibrium. Finally during this time there was full fee undergraduate courses for domestic students which is no longer possible. So fairly soon the rises will be in line with GDP.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During the noughties there were changes to the education environment that would  explain the changes. First there were increases in the amounts charged. These are unlikely to change greatly, until there is a change in government at which time there may be greater flexibility for universities to charge, but this will be unlikely to be limitless. Another important change was the expansion of postgraduate courses, which must be getting close to equilibrium. Finally during this time there was full fee undergraduate courses for domestic students which is no longer possible. So fairly soon the rises will be in line with GDP.</p>
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		<title>By: TruthIsThereIsNoTruth</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38765</link>
		<dc:creator>TruthIsThereIsNoTruth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 22:05:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38765</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t think it&#039;s a case of costs rising as a result of expanding debt triggering the inflation mechanism. It is more likely a case of decreasing government subsidy being replaced by HELP, further since there is no obligation to pay back HELP the rate of new loans will for some time outpace the rate of repayment until it gets to a point where there is enough graduates earning enough money such that the rate of repayment equals the rate of new loans. 

If this was a 4 corners style article, then the finer details would be discussed from various perspectives. Today tonight takes snippets of information and massages them into a story, often creating false implications to feed the sensation starved audience.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t think it’s a case of costs rising as a result of expanding debt triggering the inflation mechanism. It is more likely a case of decreasing government subsidy being replaced by HELP, further since there is no obligation to pay back HELP the rate of new loans will for some time outpace the rate of repayment until it gets to a point where there is enough graduates earning enough money such that the rate of repayment equals the rate of new loans. </p>
<p>If this was a 4 corners style article, then the finer details would be discussed from various perspectives. Today tonight takes snippets of information and massages them into a story, often creating false implications to feed the sensation starved audience.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Hummel</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38760</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Hummel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 19:34:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38760</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;I believe the great lesson of the 20th century will be that the most efficacious method [by far] to control populations is through debt. 

Create a society of debt-slaves and people will rationalize away any- and every damn thing.&quot;

Correct. 

And that (slavery instead of freedom) is just another reason for a debt jubilee/reduction/elimination. It also points up the superiority of a mandated option for a Dividend paradigm for most if not all of consumer finance. 

Consumer debt and an enforced loan paradigm actually IS, emphasis IS a black and white, freedom versus slavery issue. The only question is what is the appropriate balance of BOTH loan AND dividend.

It truly is a BOTH/AND universe. So lets wake up to that fact and craft our systems accordingly.

You&#039;re welcome.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“I believe the great lesson of the 20th century will be that the most efficacious method [by far] to control populations is through debt. </p>
<p>Create a society of debt-slaves and people will rationalize away any– and every damn thing.”</p>
<p>Correct. </p>
<p>And that (slavery instead of freedom) is just another reason for a debt jubilee/reduction/elimination. It also points up the superiority of a mandated option for a Dividend paradigm for most if not all of consumer finance. </p>
<p>Consumer debt and an enforced loan paradigm actually IS, emphasis IS a black and white, freedom versus slavery issue. The only question is what is the appropriate balance of BOTH loan AND dividend.</p>
<p>It truly is a BOTH/AND universe. So lets wake up to that fact and craft our systems accordingly.</p>
<p>You’re welcome.</p>
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		<title>By: impermanence</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38757</link>
		<dc:creator>impermanence</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 16:51:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38757</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I believe the great lesson of the 20th century will be that the most efficacious method [by far] to control populations is through debt.  

Create a society of debt-slaves and people will rationalize away any- and every damn thing.

Where is the leadership within the professional classes that must take responsibility by finally declaring that this insanity end?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I believe the great lesson of the 20th century will be that the most efficacious method [by far] to control populations is through debt.  </p>
<p>Create a society of debt-slaves and people will rationalize away any– and every damn thing.</p>
<p>Where is the leadership within the professional classes that must take responsibility by finally declaring that this insanity end?</p>
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		<title>By: jb</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38756</link>
		<dc:creator>jb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 16:01:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Whether student debt fits the definition of a &quot;bubble&quot; or not is to me beside the point. This article highlights another sector being funded through disproportionate expansion of private debt. Since the growth of private debt at a rate that exceeds the rate of wages growth is a core theme of this site then this article is absolutely relevant and more like &quot;Four Corners&quot; than &quot;Today Tonight&quot; imho. I think TITINT has a point about the title but not the substance. Good article.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whether student debt fits the definition of a “bubble” or not is to me beside the point. This article highlights another sector being funded through disproportionate expansion of private debt. Since the growth of private debt at a rate that exceeds the rate of wages growth is a core theme of this site then this article is absolutely relevant and more like “Four Corners” than “Today Tonight” imho. I think TITINT has a point about the title but not the substance. Good article.</p>
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		<title>By: Glenn Stehle</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/07/09/a-help-debt-bubble-2/comment-page-1/#comment-38753</link>
		<dc:creator>Glenn Stehle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 13:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=7838#comment-38753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@Joseph Gauthier 

I was preparing to blast your comment with both barrels for its factual inacuracy.  

But upon doing a little bit more research I discovered that, due to a change in U.S. Federal law in April, 2010, your comment appears to be quite accurate.  I need to get up to speed on this issue!

Wikipedia gives a short blip on the background of student financial aid in the United States.  As Wikipedia states, 

&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt; As of April 2010, Congress voted to eliminate the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) which had allowed private lenders to make student loans guaranteed by the federal government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_financial_aid_in_the_United_States
&lt;/blockquote&gt; 

Before that time private lenders did originate the majority of student loans in the United States.

Readers might find the political sparring over the change in law interesting.  It was a hard fought battle, with the banks lobbying fiercly against the change:

&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt;Four months ago, it appeared all but certain that the White House and Democrats in Congress would succeed in overhauling the student loan business and ending government subsidies to private lenders.

President Obama called the idea a “no-brainer” last fall, predicting it would take billions of dollars from the profits of private lenders and give it directly to students, and many colleges were already moving to get loans directly from the federal government in anticipation of the next move by Congress. 

But an aggressive lobbying campaign by the nation’s biggest student lenders has now put one of the White House’s signature plans in peril, with lenders using sit-downs with lawmakers, town-hall-style meetings and petition drives to plead their case and stay in business.

[....]

The money that would be saved by cutting out the private-industry middlemen — about $80 billion over the next decade, according to a Congressional Budget Office analysis — could instead go toward expanding direct Pell Grants to students, establishing $10,000 tax credits for families with loans, and forgiving debts eventually for students who go into public service, administration officials say. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/us/politics/05loans.html?hp

&lt;/blockquote&gt; 

So I would say your conclusions are correct.  Private lenders were all but eliminated from the student loan loop in 2010, but this did not solve the underlying problem, which is that education costs are growing much faster than wages and salaries.

I think the second part of your conclusion, the causality that education costs are being inflated by easy credit and a debt bubble (a conclusion which seems very much in agreement with Lawson), is not as clearly demonstrated, but I nevertheless agree.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Joseph Gauthier </p>
<p>I was preparing to blast your comment with both barrels for its factual inacuracy.  </p>
<p>But upon doing a little bit more research I discovered that, due to a change in U.S. Federal law in April, 2010, your comment appears to be quite accurate.  I need to get up to speed on this issue!</p>
<p>Wikipedia gives a short blip on the background of student financial aid in the United States.  As Wikipedia states, </p>
<blockquote cite=""><p> As of April 2010, Congress voted to eliminate the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) which had allowed private lenders to make student loans guaranteed by the federal government.</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_financial_aid_in_the_United_States" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_financial_aid_in_the_United_States</a>
</p></blockquote>
<p>Before that time private lenders did originate the majority of student loans in the United States.</p>
<p>Readers might find the political sparring over the change in law interesting.  It was a hard fought battle, with the banks lobbying fiercly against the change:</p>
<blockquote cite=""><p>Four months ago, it appeared all but certain that the White House and Democrats in Congress would succeed in overhauling the student loan business and ending government subsidies to private lenders.</p>
<p>President Obama called the idea a “no-brainer” last fall, predicting it would take billions of dollars from the profits of private lenders and give it directly to students, and many colleges were already moving to get loans directly from the federal government in anticipation of the next move by Congress. </p>
<p>But an aggressive lobbying campaign by the nation’s biggest student lenders has now put one of the White House’s signature plans in peril, with lenders using sit-downs with lawmakers, town-hall-style meetings and petition drives to plead their case and stay in business.</p>
<p>[.…]</p>
<p>The money that would be saved by cutting out the private-industry middlemen — about $80 billion over the next decade, according to a Congressional Budget Office analysis — could instead go toward expanding direct Pell Grants to students, establishing $10,000 tax credits for families with loans, and forgiving debts eventually for students who go into public service, administration officials say. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/us/politics/05loans.html?hp" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/us/politics/05loans.html?hp</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>So I would say your conclusions are correct.  Private lenders were all but eliminated from the student loan loop in 2010, but this did not solve the underlying problem, which is that education costs are growing much faster than wages and salaries.</p>
<p>I think the second part of your conclusion, the causality that education costs are being inflated by easy credit and a debt bubble (a conclusion which seems very much in agreement with Lawson), is not as clearly demonstrated, but I nevertheless agree.</p>
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