Upcoming talks in Toronto
I’m currently at the Fields Institute in Toronto, working with mathematicians here to develop my monetary models. I am taking part in some “no maths barred” seminars every Tuesday:
http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/11-12/nonlineareconomics/
But I will also give two rather more accessible talks while here. The first is on the private debt bubble and its implications for Canada:
The second is a talk on the global crisis:
Why the crisis is not over
PUBLIC LECTURE
July 5, 2012 at 5 p.m.
Steve Keen
University of Western Sydney
Most post-WWII recessions have lasted less than a year; this crisis has been going on for five. Conventional “Neoclassical” economists didn’t see it coming, can’t understand why it hasn’t gone away, and their preferred cure of austerity seems to be making it worse. To understand where it came from, why it hasn’t gone away, and what might work to end it, you have to understand the dynamics of private debt.
Steve Keen’s models, inspired by Hyman Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”, anticipated the crisis and explain why it won’t go away until private debt levels are drastically reduced.
For more information, see:
Impermanence,
The economy IS complex. That is not an overcomeable problem. What we need most in economics is the willingness to make the economic and monetary systems adaptable and make sure that the intention of these systems is the will to freedom for the individual more so than the will to power of the systems themselves. And of course we have to locate what the flaws in the system actually are.
Just had a thought about how to make a modern debt jubilee more fair for smaller Banks whose business might be more negatively impacted by that debt jubilee than the larger TBTF banks.
Just mandate, in the name of community and with the wisdom of the concept of subsidiarity i.e. decentralized power, that a large percentage of savings from the debt reduction/free distribution to savers be used to recapitalize these smaller community/regional Banks, and give incentives to borrowers, if they need to do so, to do business with these smaller Banks.
Small is beautiful as E. F. Schumacher said. Giantism, uber corporatism and globalism are not human scale entities and are subject to vices endemic to anonymity and power. Humanity’s future needs to be attuned to truths, and businesses should not be punished for being smaller.
“What we need most in economics is the willingness to make the economic and monetary systems adaptable and make sure that the intention of these systems is the will to freedom for the individual more so than the will to power of the systems themselves.”
Steve, although what you said sounds really nice, what does it mean?
Systems are designed by the few, expressly FOR the few. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be any systems.
The notion that people are attempting to help others only operates on an individual basis [and quite well, thank you very much].
The purpose of collective human enterprise has always been the same, to use the power of the group for individual gain…therefore the idea that, “when more than two adults get together, all Hell breaks loose!”
Debt Jubilee is ALWAYS the answer.
People figured this out a long time ago.
“Systems are designed by the few, expressly FOR the few. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be any systems. ”
While this may have been true I disagree with the latter part of your statement. There is no law that states that this must be the case.
“The purpose of collective human enterprise has always been the same, to use the power of the group for individual gain…”
Again this may have been the case repeatedly throughout history….and yet I reject it is as some immovable object in the way of systemic and individual evolution. Am I naive? I assure you I am not. All it really would take to get the concrete policies I have repeatedly referred to here instituted would be to awaken self interested and concerned individuals to the correct direction for the needed changes. This characterizes almost everyone because as I have stated before, it’s a BOTH/AND world.
How many people could get behind the idea of a monthly dividend check being deposited into their Bank account every month of their lives? How many people would respond positively to the idea of creating a society based on inherently good human experiences that would not only enable them full power to choose their occupation and their own individual purposes in Life….but to also give them a lot more time to to pursue those purposes? I’m thinking just about as many as in the former case.
Look, a couple of dunces like you and me have figured out that the system ain’t quite right or fair, so why can’t most people see the same thing and get behind the proper changes? Christianity took hold because the idea of grace was a winner with slaves and 99% of slaves know in their heart of hearts that somethin’ ain’t right. Ghandi evoked a mass social/political movement on the idea of political self choice and the ideal of non-violence. Martin Luther King, Jr. did the same thing with the Civil Rights Movement.
It’s possible all right. It’s got obstacles to overcome, but self interest AND the genuine appeal to a higher cause has a good pedigree and a pretty decent history actually.
impermanence
June 24, 2012 at 12:24 pm | #
“Steve, although what you said sounds really nice, what does it mean? ”
I haven’t a clue what this means either. Steve’s intentions I believe are good but maybe he needs to come back to planet earth.
The truth is it’s not really that difficult to understand. Especially when you actually have an open mind to receive it. So here is some of the thinking behind what I have been posting.
First off nothing I have suggested as concrete policy should be misunderstood at all. I call for a dividend to be paid to every person either from birth to grave or perhaps when they reach the age of 18 until they pass on. Either way this payment is based on their heritage from being a citizen of an advanced technological society. As I have shown an advanced technology enables Finance to effectively spread out into a market in a much more thorough way…and without it Finance is largely unable to lend at all. The example of there being no loans being made for automobile consumption in Papua New Guinea. In our advanced economies Finance and to a lesser extent Government (which is actually captive to Fiance anyway) with their monopoly on credit has completely usurped this tremendous asset and most dominant factor in production (technological innovation and advance that is) even though it is obvious with a few moments of thought that the value of accumulated progress belongs to no one in particular and everyone in general. And so the dividend is a redressing of this unjust imbalance of power and value.
Currently Finance/Government forces individuals to “re-invent the wheel” of progress by forcing on them the paradigm of loan ONLY. Changing the consumer financial paradigm from only loan to guaranteed dividend and loan if desired has the simultaneous effect of economically freeing individuals and bolstering the entire economic system with the liquidity it requires to function smoothly. Every economic upturn is characterized by more money than normal in the hands of individuals to spend, and every economic downturn is characterized by the opposite. A dividend in perpetuity completely changes this.
I also call for a general retail discount on a likely monthly time period based on the formula of Total cost of consumption over Total cost of production over that same period. The discount negates any inflation for consumers and the compensation back to retailers enables them to be whole on their overhead and profit WITHOUT ACTUALLY SPENDING ANY MORE MONEY THAN IF YOU DIDN’T HAVE THE DISCOUNT.
Using the creditary nature of the money system in these two ways again, frees individuals and makes the system operate more smoothly and efficiently. The INTENTION of the will to freedom for the individual is perfectly reflected in these very CONCRETE mechanisms and replete throughout such a system. If there is a law of human behavior and human systems it is: WHAT EVER IS THE ACTUAL INTENTION OF THE INDIVIDUAL OR SYSTEM IS WHAT WILL TEND TO BE. We obviously do not have the intention of the will to freedom for the individual in our current economic and monetary systems.
The truly wonderful and not coincidental thing about both our minds AND the creditary nature of our money system is that they BOTH can create and destroy instantaneously. Money/credit is created ex nihilo, and when purchasing power meets a price or pays a debt…Boom! destruction. Actually these things are all metaphysical creations (I’ll wager no has shaken the hand of a price or a debt yet) so the true cycle is actually more like know/unknow, but create destroy is fine for temporal universe purposes. The human mind knows a thought/feeling/whatever and then when they get on to the next moment of time they unknow that particular experience. The process is perfectly analogous. What does the neurotic do? He/she keeps recreating the past in the present to their own discomfort/upset to others and general consternation. The non-free flowing present workings of the economy and money system is exactly like the neurotic. The more we can be in the free flowing present of price and debt creation and destruction the healthier and more free we and the system actually are. As within, so without. As above, so below. This applies to both negative and positive.
Guaranteed money in perpetuity is the perfect economic representation of faith as in confidence.
The realization and experience of being confident and secure about your future is the perfect state of economic and monetary hope.
When you are confident in the moment and have hope for the future you are free to love.
And of course a dividend is the perfect monetary representation of Grace…the free gift. Which is the key to all of the above becoming a systemic and more general human reality. As above, so below. As within, so also without.
All of the above is valid human psychology, right out of the woof and warp one of the world’s major wisdom traditions and economically and monetarily true and again, analogous.
Cynicism is a good purgative, but a poor lifestyle. Everyone chooses. You either dramatize your doubt and so affirm the present neurotic reality, or you “step out in faith” that is with confidence and affirm a new reality, a better reality, the better and best reality…for yourself and for your posterity.
So which will it be?
“The human mind knows a thought/feeling/whatever and then when they get on to the next moment of time they unknow that particular experience.”
Steve, this sentence demonstrates that you [almost] understand.
I agree with your view that life is moments [as opposed to a continuum], but it is not a matter of “unknowing” a particular experience, as Reality is unknowable.
Moments exist outside of perception.
That aside, there are all kinds of wonderful things that take place on this planet, but if you seek a common denominator, I believe you will find only individual initiative as the catalyst. Only an individual can manifest true compassion, as this is a human quality lost in the group.
The group is an amalgam of individual interests continually morphing into policies and directives, dictates, laws, summonses, levies, taxes, and all the rest.
The notion that a group can be compassionate takes on its own life as demonstrated by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that corporations should be treated as individuals in the political sphere.
Limit power to the individual and the scope of less desirable human activity attenuates considerably.
“but it is not a matter of “unknowing” a particular experience, as Reality is unknowable.”
This may or may not be true on a cosmic scale, but on an individual scale it isn’t true at all. EVERYONE’S reality is real. It may not be rational, but it’s still real to them. I’m not saying that Social Credit is going to immediately usher in some blissful society wide experience which obliterates all problems blah, blah, blah. That would be stupid. What I DO say is this:
That a SYSTEM, EMPHASIS SYSTEM based on the values, ideas and experiences of Faith as in confidence, Hope, Love and a sense of Grace AND WHOSE CONCRETE POLICIES THAT ACTUALLY ACCURATELY REFLECT THESE IDEAS, VALUES AND EXPERIENCES PLUS THE CONSCIOUS INTENTION OF THE WILL TO FREEDOM FOR THE INDIVIDUAL……WILL ENABLE SUCH THINGS….UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH ACTUALLY INHIBITS THEM.
“That a SYSTEM, EMPHASIS SYSTEM based on the values, ideas and experiences of Faith as in confidence, Hope, Love and a sense of Grace…
….UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH ACTUALLY INHIBITS THEM.”
Steve, you can not attribute human qualities to systems.
Only human beings can manifest hope, love, [fill in the blank], as it is this error where even those with the most benevolent of intentions will a great burst of adrenaline in their mad dash down the path to illusory [system] salvation, where, low and behold, they slam into The Devil [in government, corporations, universities, and other varieties of Hell on Earth].
The current system is, “The System.” The previous system was, “The System.” The next system will be, “The System.” It’s ALWAYS the same, just as our true nature as human beings is ALWAYS the same.
“Steve, you can not attribute human qualities to systems.”
I’m not making systems out to be animate or something on that mystical order. I AM saying that systems will enable or inhibit human or inhuman ends DEPENDING UPON WHETHER THEY ARE BASED ON WISE AND HUMANE IDEAS, VALUES AND EXPERIENCES OR NOT. I’m also saying that even if systems are allegedly based on these ideas….they may not ACTUALLY be so. You’re saying the latter also. I’m not claiming that there will be an end to history either. There will probably always be a struggle between the shallow and apparent and the mature and the authentic. What I’m ultimately saying is to trust and utilize wisdom enough to derive policy from it….BECAUSE IT ACTUALLY IS MATURE AND AUTHENTIC. Someday, if human civilization and maybe even the species is to survive, we’ll look back on this as the prodigal adolescence of Humanity. Or perhaps as the one eyed scientistic experiment that failed. And it will be because we didn’t utilize the wisdom our forebears chronicled for us to balance/re-balance our systems and civilization.
“What I’m ultimately saying is to trust and utilize wisdom enough to derive policy from it….BECAUSE IT ACTUALLY IS MATURE AND AUTHENTIC.”
Steve, it should be apparent to most that society is defined by, the group, and group activity. Wisdom is quality born of individual experience and compassion and can not be translated into a language that a group might understand.
The group is empowered to take from some and give to others. Unfortunately, this paradigm always ends up being, “from the many to the few,” because this seems to be human nature in group-form.
I would agree with everything you have suggested until you make that great leap across the chasm of good sense landing in the fantasy-world of those institutions that desire to help the helpless, educate the ignorant, heal the sick, feed the hungry, i.e., create TOTAL dependency.
Steve, just as it is every person’s desire to find that mate who will save themselves from themselves, people too, desire to have a group save them from the responsibility of achieving independence.
We live in a world full of people unable to do much of anything, willing to give up their natural rights as human beings to individuals consumed with greed and insecurity.
Would it not be a wonderful fantasy to fire up the printing presses and pay-off these Napoleons so as to leave the rest of us alone?!
Cynicism is a good purgative, but IMO a poor lifestyle. Its just too sterile for me.
“Cynicism is a good purgative, but IMO a poor lifestyle. Its just too sterile for me.”
Again, Steve, I am not sure what you mean by this, but I believe it is most helpful to view the world as it is [more or less].
If you look at the struggle of the individual v. the group, I believe you will find that although the individual loses [materially] in nearly every instance, it is only the individual who adds to the conversation.
Individuals contribute, groups abscond [on the whole].
Steve K – Will slides from the Field’s talks from 6/26 be posted?….Thanks
A debt jubilee sounds OK mathematically, economically, and perhaps morally.
However, it totally fails to make the psychological adjustment that will be necessary for a true recovery with investments.
I also don’t understand why you so easily claim austerity isn’t working. It isn’t really being practiced in terms of big cuts. (and I understand there is pain for some people no matter what, but I don’t see the big obvious association here, at least no more than opposing examples where fiscal restraint has been helpful)