Keen to be heard” in BRW

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Busi­ness Review Weekly has just pub­lished a pro­file on me and my debt-based macro­eco­nom­ics, on pages 24–25 of the cur­rent issue (Feb­ru­ary 16–22 2012):

Keen to be heard

The author Nick Gard­ner has done a very good job of explain­ing why the change in pri­vate debt mat­ters. I’d have to con­cede that his brief expla­na­tion using the actual GDP and change in debt fig­ures for the USA is a lot clearer than most of my chart-laden posts.

That doesn’t sur­prise me. When he was the Busi­ness Edi­tor of the Sun­day Tele­graph, Nick wrote some of the best arti­cles on Australia’s econ­omy and finance sec­tor in the main­stream media. Now he is free­lanc­ing, blog­ging at Nick­Gar­ner­Me­dia, and tweet­ing as @nickgardner27.

He also inter­viewed some of Australia’s most suc­cess­ful new busi­ness own­ers for his book How I made my first mil­lion. Please read Nick’s story in the BRW, and also check out his blog and book.

About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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  • alain­ton

    A report by Dursche Bank pub­lished today says Aus­train House prices are over­val­ued by 39%–2#australias-home-prices-are-overvalued-by-39–15

  • koonyeow

    Title: It’s Time for That Trench Coat and Sun­glasses

    Yet in his home coun­try, this rene­gade econ­o­mist is regarded as some­thing of a quack.”

    Time for that black Armani trench coat and Ray­Ban sun­glasses, Steve?

  • mfo

    How do econ­o­mists prove their answers?
    Answer: By sea­son­ally adjust­ing the ques­tions.

    How do you make truf­fles from turds?
    Answer. By sea­son­ally adjust­ing the recipe.

  • RickW

    Feb­ru­ary 16, 2012 at 8:04 pm | #
    A report by Dursche Bank pub­lished today says Aus­train House prices are over­val­ued by 39%–2#australias-home-prices-are-overvalued-by-39–15

    I can­not see Aus­tria in the list!!

  • I’d need to prac­tice my kung fu too…

  • koonyeow

    Title: A Response to Steve

    We may need kung fu when the neo-clas­si­cals can no longer be rea­soned with.

  • If only Keynes, Schum­peter and Fisher (post-1932) had known Kung Fu, we might have been spared the neo­clas­si­cal revival in the first place!

  • Greg Wood

    Nick Gard­ner con­cludes the arti­cle with a sum­mary of what Steve ‘got wrong’. 

    Unem­ploy­ment rate? ! ?

    Does Nick believe the ABS def­i­n­i­tion to be the most accu­rate one avail­able?

    This appar­ent short­fall is a great shame as it makes the arti­cle less use­ful as an inde­pen­dent intro­duc­tion to Steve’s debt the­ory than it oth­er­wise would be. 

    In say­ing this I’m observ­ing that, in review­ing an unfa­mil­iar the­ory (or the­o­rist), the aver­age per­son will take as much or more account of the implied verac­ity of the the­ory (or the­o­rist) as they do of the actual facts and logic being pre­sented. The lat­ter is seen and weighed in accord with the per­spec­tive of the for­mer.

  • koonyeow

    Title: A Response to Steve, Reloaded

    If only Keynes, Schum­peter and Fisher (post-1932) had known Kung Fu, we might have been spared the neo­clas­si­cal revival in the first place!”

    100% agree.

  • Nick was obliged to come up with those three entries by the BRW edi­tor Greg, and I actu­ally nom­i­nated that one for him. I agree that the ABS def­i­n­i­tion is suss, but it’s also true that I expected that level to be breached even by that def­i­n­i­tion, and it wasn’t. Of course, the Rudd stim­u­lus and the FHVB were obvi­ous addi­tional events that weren’t in my orig­i­nal call (i.e., I didn’t say that “even if the gov­ern­ment runs the biggest stim­u­lus in his­tory and rein­tro­duces the First Home Ven­dors Grant, unem­ploy­ment will still exceed 10% on the ABS mea­sure), but those nuances are passed over in pub­lic debate.

    I regard the Roy Mor­gan mea­sure as more valid–clearly–than the ABS, and that’s run­ning at 10% now of course, but it could fall as much as 2% when school leavers start to get jobs. That would put it at 8.5% (roughly), still below the level I thought we’d hit.

  • Greg Wood

    Hi Steve

    Fair enough. i can han­dle you not being per­fect.

    The shame is though that peo­ple who don’t want to know the crit­i­cal thing that you are right about will rush to obscure it behind the periph­eral thing that you are partly wrong about. 

    I had the use for that inde­pen­dent arti­cle all mapped out until I got to that last part. Such is life. Will just have to wait now for the obvi­ous to become even more bleed­ingly so.

  • No go ahead with using it Greg. Any­one who would use that as a rea­son not to con­sider what I’m argu­ing would be impos­si­ble to con­vince any­way.

  • Greg Wood

    I was think­ing of using it as a suc­cinct ref­er­ence arti­cle to back­ground some of your graphs within the court case I pre­vi­ously told you about. We’ve done three weeks of evi­dence now and have another 2 to go.

    My expe­ri­ence to date is that Bar­ris­ters expend much of their effort mak­ing real mean­ings less rather than more clear. I’m quite hor­ri­fied at how they can reduce and mar­gin­alise essen­tial mean­ing whilst expand­ing con­tin­gen­cies into dom­i­nant focus. The sys­tem is expand­ing upon pure momen­tum at present, not intel­li­gence.