Will you attend the CfESI AGM?

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As noted in Announcing the Center for Economic Stability AGM, the first Annual General Meeting of the Centre for Economic Stability Incorporated will be held on Wednesday September 7th at 6-9pm at the Sydney Mechanics School of Arts, 280 Pitt Street Sydney, Australia, from 6-9pm.

I need to have some idea of numbers for catering and room booking purposes. I know that most of the 12,000 subscribers to and 60,000+ monthly readers of this blog don’t live in Sydney or surrounds, but I would appreciate it if as many as are able to attend do so, and help get CfESI rolling.

If you can attend, please click on the link below to register:

Registration for CfESI AGM

Please also consider signing up to CfESI: as you should be aware from reading this blog, I have run it “on the smell of an oily rag” for the last 4 years, with no fees or advertising (though that is about to change). Donations have helped, but have only been at a level that enables occasional software purchases, rather than truly supporting a research effort.

This was not a major problem while the research was largely something that only I could do. However, now that I have received funding from INET for the initial development of a dynamic monetary macroeconomic simulation program, there is a research project that I can’t do alone, and for which public funding is required. I have hired one programmer for the next year, which will enable the development of a minimal program, when so much more can be done.

If a sufficient level of funding is raised via the membership fees for CfESI, it will be able to both fund this research, and appear as a public partner in grant applications to schemes such as the Australian Research Council’s Linkage program. The minimum industry partner funding contribution that the ARC will take seriously is $10,000 p.a., and so far CfESI is only about one third of the way there: about 50 people have signed up as paying members, yielding about $3,500 p.a.

So if you’ve enjoyed this blog, and benefited from the analysis and discussion here, please sign up. There are 3 levels of paying membership, with the lowest fee being a modest US$13 p.a. (we are setting fees in US$ since both the audience of this blog and the focus of CfESI are international, even though they are both based in Australia).

About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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17 Responses to Will you attend the CfESI AGM?

  1. sj says:

    Mr Keen
    All your research and models are pointing at unstable economics?
    So the name for the AGM Centre For Economic Stability Incorporated sounds like a neo classical convection.

    Economics has no centre.
    Only real centre is fractal this cannot be measure in a stable way.
    Economics is chaos and unpredictable has critical tipping points.

    Again we are back to mother nature and eco systems far from a centre of stability.

    Maybe the name needs to be changed to be more open to Mr Popper and Mr Taleb ideas?
    Shoe Walking Economics or Snowy Centre For Unstable economics.
    Fractals are everywhere in mother nature even snow flakes, so the unstable critical points would fit with the name and the story of your lost bet.
    I know these names will never be picked by the University elite, you must have a big fancy title that sounds intelligent and serious, but makes no sense in the real world of economics.

  2. Steve Keen says:

    You should watch the lecture I’ll post on Youtube this week sj–on the Fractal Markets Hypothesis.

    Note that the name of the Centre includes “For … Stability”, not “Of … Stability”. the inherent proposition is that the system is unstable, and if any policies are needed, they are ones to stabilise it–not to make it more “efficient”, especially as neoclassicals define the word.

  3. sj says:

    Mr Keen
    Forgive me for my tongue and cheek but no policies can stabilise a fractal system when you reach a critical tipping point.
    Eco systems have their own timetable and no brillliant new policies will prevent a natural cycle from happening.
    Your own models must show this?
    Japan and America try zero interest rates the system is more unstable, better to clean out the system by doing nothing than try stable policies that don’t work.

    Who are ones to stabilise the system Mr Keen?
    Free market no pain no gain?
    Or union thugs, greedy speculators and high debt individuals screaming lower interest rates?
    I will bet on the latter too much political pressure not to clean out the unstable system.

  4. koonyeow says:

    Title: I Love Your Comments Very Much, Sj

    Sj,

    How I wish if I could meet you personally. I am quite sure you have the second edition of The Black Swan where Taleb talked about robustifying a society through redundancies (like having two lungs and two kidneys).

    Unfortunately, Taleb’s website

    http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

    has turned ultra-stylish (or should I say ultra-minimalist?).

  5. bryan willis says:

    Hi ,not sure if you are aware of this just published paper
    http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.htm

    regards

  6. Steve Keen says:

    Thanks Bryan,

    From the abstract their trigger levels of debt are absurdly high. Knowing of Cecchetti, I expect this is a very neoclassical, equilibrium-oriented analysis.

  7. AntiMoralHazard says:

    Hey guys,

    Just like to draw your attention at this (http://www.differenthere.com/2011/08/on-internet-nobody-knows-youre-dog-or.html):

    “Who are you really chatting with, when you post on that property forum or blog? A regular person like yourself, or a paid spruiker, funded by the real estate industry?

    That’s the question that arose this week, when it was revealed on several major Australian property forums that groups of ‘shills’ or ‘spruikers’ may be bankrolled by big business and property groups to paint a false rosy picture of the local real estate market.”

    People like Aus_ed comes to my mind.

    Beware of the wolves, folks!

  8. sj says:

    AntiMoralHazard
    Never live in fear of another point of view.
    Infact good to get a insight from another person you don’t fall into the trap of all doom and gloom.
    Many bloggers with different points of view bb,elliotwave,Aus-ed Pj.
    That is how the market works many different perspectives thus wild swings in the market and you get a fractal.
    Real economics and markets do not work on perfect stable policies.

  9. AntiMoralHazard says:

    sj,

    It’s not the other point of view that is the problem. It is the dishonest liars that are the ones to beware.

  10. aus_ed says:

    I am glad to hear that you still remember me AMH, there must have been something I said that still reverberates in your head to this day. :-)

    For the record, no I’m not paid spruiker. Just pragmatic observer and student of real life.

    Let’s be honest about it. What will I gain by convincing you that not everything is doom and gloom? I am not promoting any sites, I am not selling you anything, I am not making a name for myself… Just expressing my opinion on things that most people “just know are bad” without really trying to understand. Stand aside and look who has the most to gain and the motives behind that gloom become crystal clear.

    Nothing that I said is untrue. You cannot lump alternative views with “dishonest liars”. Contrary to “informed opinions” of those who “know better”, mine is still proving a more accurate reflection of reality – no widespread falls in property prices (just a “margin of error” magnitude in a few places) and no interest raises. I have a feeling you will remember me for a long time, pondering what “should have been” but isn’t and will never be…

    Get a life mate! :-)

  11. AntiMoralHazard says:

    Oh, aus_ed, I’m surprised that you are still here.

    Weren’t you the one who ranted that Steve Keen is unethical? http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/07/10/on-the-edge-with-max-keiser/comment-page-5/#comment-31388

    Yet you are still hanging out in a blog of a professor whom you think in unethical. Very interesting… why? Oh I forgot, you are here because you want to stand up for the principle of promoting the views of the ‘other side’.

    So, you are a very principled person right? Interesting, that’s what Bernard Salt is trying to advocate… that vested interest groups should seek out and counter ‘extreme’ views. Check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76-weCISRFQ&feature=player_embedded.

    So, let’s see how principled you are… Oops, someone caught you out lying. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/07/10/on-the-edge-with-max-keiser/comment-page-5/#comment-31401

  12. AntiMoralHazard says:

    “What will I gain by convincing you that not everything is doom and gloom?”

    You are paid to do so.

    Since you had been caught lying, why should we all believe you when you said you are not a paid spruiker?

  13. alainton says:

    Two requests

    Can we have the latest comments widget back

    Can commenting on individual posts – as in hierarchical – be enabled in wordpress

    Both would make things easier to follow

  14. alainton says:

    On the Cachettti paper noticeable how several of the Jackson Hole papers were on

    1. Debt

    2. China likely to run out of steam by 2013 because of over-investment and indebtedness

    The neoclassical paradigm seems already broken. The bond vigilantes and a good many of the global macro funds seem to have split with it – losing a few trillion is a good test of a theoretical structure.

    Also people are begging to twig on that austerity nations tank and countries like Iceland that pursue a different path recover.

    Its just that, in Lakatos terms, a paradigm capable of full replacement isn’t their yet.

    I have to say without fear of embarrassing Steve that his classically inspired dynamic models of money, debt and growth is the best hope for doing this – combined with other work of course.

    But not there yet in showing a complete economic paradigm covering capital theory, integration of finance and macro, interest, trade, fiscal measures etc. So I can see economics entering a decade of uncertainty with neo-classical and other models running in an uneasy parallel.

    A lesson from history is that ultimately a paradigm gets replaced because of one school retiring and dying out as much as anything else.

  15. aus_ed says:

    Thanks for referencing those posts AMH. Now intelligent readers of this blog can really see what you are on about.

    And no, I am not paid to comment but I am of a view that visitors to this site should be warned that not all propositions put forward on this blog are a gospel. I stand by my comments that it is unethical to spruik without appropriate caveats. The doom and gloom scenario is not exception. There are plenty of people who cannot think for themselves and are easy prey for extremist views… If prof Keen is so caring about their welfare, why not placing appropriate disclaimer on the front page that this is all “just a theory” and the practical application is not yet proven?

    Why I bother to visit this blog? Occassionally for the main commentary but primarily for quite interesting discussions on ECONOMIC THEORY by mostly anonymous participants. It helps to broaden my perspective. I strongly recommend you try broadening yours by visiting sites that contain wider range of opinions on the property market.

    Funny that you insist I was “caught lying”. As far as I am concerned, property prices are not dropping in a hurry (in some places actually going up). And I have no doubt that those who educate themselves about how various classes of investment work will find that property is an exceptionally attractive proposition. So, where is the lie? But hang on, how about that “40% drop in property prices” that was definite to happen by now? Oops, the damn thing just refuses to go down. Now the call is that it “may happen some time in the next 10 years”… Not to mention totally wrong calls on unemployment and interest rates.

    As you pointed yourself, “beware of wolves in sheep skin”… By the way, what’s your interest in promoting doom and gloom story? Are you hoping that it will sway the market so you can pick up some property for your portfolio at bargain prices? Who’s payroll are you on? Conspiracy theory can be applied to may scenarios…

  16. AntiMoralHazard says:

    “Occassionally for the main commentary but primarily for quite interesting discussions on ECONOMIC THEORY”

    Really? Funny, I find you spruiking property more than you talk theory.

    “Funny that you insist I was “caught lying”.”

    Sure, take a look at this again:
    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/07/10/on-the-edge-with-max-keiser/comment-page-5/#comment-31401

    “what’s your interest in promoting doom and gloom story?”

    Can you find an instance of me promoting doom and gloom?

    I can find many instances of you spruiking.

  17. AntiMoralHazard says:

    “why not placing appropriate disclaimer”

    What about you? I’ve never seen you place any disclaimer for your spruiking.

    “But hang on, how about that “40% drop in property prices” that was definite to happen by now?”

    And by the way, when did Steve Keen said that the 40% has happen by now?

    Ah, you’ve cleverly misrepresented him. Oh, maybe that’s a deliberate misrepresentation on your part?

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