Western Economic Association Presentation: Debt & House Prices

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The USA’s West­ern Eco­nom­ic Asso­ci­a­tion Inter­na­tion­al holds a Pacif­ic Rim con­fer­ence every two years, and this year the host was the Queens­land Uni­ver­si­ty of Tech­nol­o­gy in Bris­bane, Aus­tralia.

I spoke in two ses­sions on what Amer­i­cans call “The Great Reces­sion” and Aus­tralians calls the “GFC”–the Glob­al Finan­cial Cri­sis. The first ses­sion had two oth­er papers of inter­est to read­ers of this blog: a paper on house prices by Jakob Mad­sen, one of the “Beze­mer Twelve” who pre­dict­ed and warned of the impend­ing cri­sis, and anoth­er on the dan­gers inher­ent in Aus­trali­a’s high lev­el of for­eign debt by QUT’s Mark McGov­ern.

My screen record­ing soft­ware stuffed up–the sound was fine, but it record­ed the blank screen­saver rather than the slides. To make amends I redid my pre­sen­ta­tion, using the sound record­ing and try­ing to sync it with the audio (with only par­tial suc­cess! The tim­ing is slight­ly out–my voice runs ahead of the slides).

A sim­i­lar stuff-up applied in the sec­ond session–I dis­con­nect­ed the pro­jec­tor before sav­ing the record­ing, and the pro­gram crashed. So I will do the same for that presentation–re-record it and post it here–but unfor­tu­nate­ly I have no record of the dis­cus­sions.

Before these has­sles, I had planned to post all videos in one blog entry; now I’ll just post the first ses­sion here. The screen cap­ture of my talk for the sec­ond ses­sion will have to wait till I have time to re-do it on the week­end.

My presentation on the statistical dynamics of debt

Steve Keen’s Debt­watch Pod­cast 

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Unfor­tu­nate­ly I could­n’t do that with Mark and Jakob’s papers, but the audio below is com­plete, from Jakob’s paper through to mine. How­ev­er for some rea­son I can’t get that to play on my PC! I’ll leave it here for now and pub­lish, and see if the has­sle can be sort­ed out lat­er.

Madsen on house prices, McGovern and Keen on debt (probably won’t run! Sleuthing apreciated)

Mad­sen on house prices, McGov­ern & Keen on debt

Steve Keen’s Debt­watch Pod­cast http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/talks/MadsenMcGovernKeen.m4a

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Papers and pre­sen­ta­tions from ses­sion one:

My pre­sen­ta­tion “More on the GFC: Pre­lude to a Mon­e­tary Min­sky Mod­el of the Great Mod­er­a­tion and the Great Reces­sion

Jakob Mad­sen “A Repay­ment Mod­el of House Prices”

Mark McGov­ern “Beyond the Debt Dream­time: Defus­ing and Resolv­ing Cri­sis”

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About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.