AMI Talks in FLV format

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I made the mistake of posting the talks from the AMI conference in SWF rather than Flash Video format; I’ll amend that post shortly, but in the meantime here are the talk by myself and Michael Hudson, and the panel discussion.

Keen Talk: Why Credit Money Crashes

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Podcast 

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Hudson Talk

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Podcast 

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Hudson Discussion

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Podcast 

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AMI Panel Discussion

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Podcast 

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About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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111 Responses to AMI Talks in FLV format

  1. Frank says:

    Yes I see. The multiagent model would need to implement agent behaviour that had been made to fit the macro-data anyway. Perhaps with that aim the banks themselves could help: they don’t have all information but a more accurate simulacrum could be constructed with anonymised transaction and account data from multiple banks over a long history.

  2. mahaish says:

    “One last point. Many of the rich and powerful here in the States are “privately” saying that the States will default on their debt within the next two years”

    impossible for the US government to default soho,

    the rich and powerfull, well thats a different matter, they can default, unless the government bails them out

  3. Alan Gresley says:

    @soho44 75

    “Doing some latenight research and came across some 2012 predictions. Not the Celente/Dellinger/Kaiser “the world’s going to end tomorrow” stuff. But what are your thoughts on this?”

    Haven’t heard of Dellinger.

    “Inflation is still going up Stateside. Some say the govt. has been blatantly lying about the rate for years.”

    It is a many tier economy. You have the FIRE sector and other sectors. Each sector is experiencing deflation or inflation and each sector has a different flow of velocity of money.

    The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for Australia has risen around 3% annually. Welfare has increased each 6 months to reflect the rise in the CPI. Those on welfare are plainly aware that inflation for necessities, rent, food, etc rises about 5% to 10% or more annually. The Australian Government is bit by bit, making the standard of living worst for those who are poor. Such things are normal for a Corporatocracy dressed up as democracy.

    “Has gold reached it’s peak yet? There’s still a lot of positioning going on to maintain that bubble.”

    No, gold will rise in respect to USD. Possibly US $2,000 by the middle of next year. In AUD, the price of gold may just be the same.
    Using gold as a hedge against inflation may not help. Who was seen in the American MSM often from 2007 to now? Peter Schiff. One point of is argument may come true. That is the USD may become worthless but this may only apply internationally. For those in America, it may be a case of the continuous debate of if there is deflation or inflation. If the USD become worthless than imports from China would be expensive for Americans. Remember, for America to become a great producing nation again, a big change in work ethic must happen. That means less time watching football, baseball, American dad and American idol.

    “More currency fights will happen. Everyone will naturally say, what, OUR currency is too high? Devalue it? We don’t think so.”

    For 2009, the GDP product of various countries or regions was (millions of USD):

    EU 16,414,697

    US 14,119,050
    Japan 5,068,894
    China 4,984,731

    Now if the Chinese Yuan appreciated by 20% to the USD the GDP of China would be 5,981,677. If the Yuan appreciated by 40% to the USD the GDP of China would be 6,978,623. So Chinese GDP is not 35% of the size of US GDP but rather 42% or 49% of it’s size. Does this make sense to you?

    “Jim Rogers: The second (and much worse) economic meltdown is roughly 2 years away. What does he base this on? First, the above. Second, the lock that China has on the Stateside economy.”

    I know of his name. Concerning China, see below.

    “If you really think another country is an out-of-control empire builder, what better way to bring them down a few levels than thru their economy?”

    China has a 2 Trillion dollar war chest. Half of which I believe is tied up in securities (etc) denominated in USD. Anyway China is facing the New Great Game by building Oil and Gas pipelines and not dreaming up some visions of grandeur sitting in ivory towers trumpeting the virtues of truth and freedom in some 21st century world order.

    “Do you agree that another one will come that soon? If not, what do you base that on? Another aspect: the November elections. If the neocons win, Obama’s essentially a 2nd half lameduck leader.”

    The US Titanic by mathematical probability (if not certainty) is going to sink if it does not change course now.

    I base this on falling amounts in US income tax and payroll tax, uneven growth, thus uneven debt growth by the various sectors (see D.1) and the distribution of wealth in America.

  4. soho44 says:


    I agree w/some of your points. But as for others:

    To me, Peter Schiff has no credibility. First, he keeps playing off the “socialism is evil” mantra that so many neocons follow. Second, in an old SBS interview with Negus and Steve, he basically said there’s no such thing as homelessness in the States. We have plenty of empty houses. If that’s true, then how come so many homless people aren’t allowed to live in them as shelters? I’ve been homeless twice. So to me, that’s very offensive.

    Re; commodities. Yes, gold will always be a haven to many. As for other things (silver, water, oil and others), there’s either a shrinking supply in some. Or, rich and powerful players in the market are trying to manipulate them and position themselves to make a killing. Example: T. Boone Pickens and natural gas. Part of his approach is to again exploit the “Obama and Democrats are a bunch of socialists” idea. He’s the only one with the guts to actually do the “right thing” to fix this. Which is why the business MSM here eat this stuff up.

    Does one person literally have the power to destroy the markets? No. Not even George Soros (despite all the business MSM people in the U.K. who love to have a go at him).

    One key that I’m seeing? Lots of countries publically say nice soundbites about working together, bi-lateral agreements and more. But the reality is that’s all rubbish (no surprise, right).

    Obama criticizes China for “currency manipulation”. Yet, he’s manipulating the dollar into the ground. What’s the justification? “To maintain our way of life”(to maintain our superiority in the world).

    How many EU countries stick to the treaties that all members have signed? Very few. It’s no big shock then that many people are shorting the Euro to cash in on the EU possibly falling apart?

    Nobody will honor their agreements. Nobody will pay attention to intl. law on various issues (unless it clearly benefits them). Nobody will devalue their currency. What’s the justification for all of this? Many of the rich and powerful say that’s how the “real world” works. So it’s ok. But, if I have a business and I go bankrupt, I’m expected to just take it and declare bankruptcy because, well, that’s how business is done.

  5. sirius says:

    “Off topic” – but do you see the patterns and connections ?

    In July, hedge fund Armajor purchased in a single trade a quantity of cocoa beans equivalent to 7% of global production, helping push cocoa prices to their highest level in over three decades. Armajor had effectively cornered the world market in warehoused cocoa beans.

    The report provides a clear analysis of how financial market deregulation has created a world in which the price of virtual food, traded through exotic financial instruments, can drive movements in the price of real food – and with it drive up the number of hungry, which in 2008 surpassed one billion people.

  6. Jason Murphy says:

    Folks I have enough ideas to keep me going for weeks! Thanks for the little directional nudges.

    The time has come to build! [Though I expect the first attempt will be very much the stick man of models!]

  7. TruthIsThereIsNoTruth says:

    there is no such thing as continuous time, either in trading or economic events, but also there is not such this as continuous time in computer simulation. Even Vissim must discretise the simulation somehow.

    The key to discretisation is getting it right, simply transforming the equation into it’s discrete counterparts may seem like the right thing to do but in fact it is not. The correct way to do it is with a Taylor expansion, I’m not presuming this is not known but the description of the symptoms sounds like the discretisation may not be done properly. But we may also be talking about different things altogether.

    In terms of the agent simulation, in my opinion there must be an element of randomness in the agent behaviour. You may argue that agents actions are not random, but when aggregated they are effectively random, I would be looking at replicating a distribution of outcomes rather than an outcome from a specific macro model.

  8. Pingback: American Monetary Institute presentation | Economics for People

  9. Mike Stasse says:

    Well that’ll learn ya! I gave up on windoze more than ten years ago. THIS laptop came with windoze 7, but I [almost] never use it…. a CONSTANT source of aggro and frustration.

    As soon as I bought this computer, I loaded it with Ubuntu, my favourite distro of Linux, and have never looked back….. never crashes, never catches ITD’s (Internet Transmitted Diseases) and is easier to use. And it’s FREE! As is every other piece of software that works in it, and I use scientific/graphic/communications specialist stuff.

    Ubuntu comes with a “software centre” which allows you to download HUNDREDS of different kinds of software, all free. Just yesterday my wife needed new business cards…. download a small program that did a great job. FREE.

  10. Pingback: Why credit money doesn’t have to crash. And why it always does. « Pengar? Nej tack!

  11. Elstead says:

    Why Credit Money Crashes – This is fascinating.

    My tenuous understanding is that, under certain conditions which are not onerous, stable growth is possible in a credit money only system. However, speculation will introduce instability.

    Hypothetically, if conditions could be imposed to penalise speculation, then a continuous private sector zero balance (or maybe surplus) is possible. Is that correct?

    If so, is government deficit spending subsidising speculation?

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