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Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

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Levy Paper

Published in June 28th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
32 Comments

This is just a very quick post to make my paper at the Levy Institute available. Later I’ll add a post of the paper itself and a video of the presentation.

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There is no GFC…

Published in June 27th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
152 Comments

One of the unexpected things I’ve learnt in Boston is that the Global Financial Crisis is not called the Global Financial Crisis in America–and therefore the TLA of the GFC has no meaning here. Instead, in America this might be The Crisis That Has No Name (TCTHNN), because they don’t call it anything at all: [...]

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Steve Keen Talk in New York

Published in June 20th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
2 Comments

A blog member has arranged for me to give a talk during my trip to NY.  I will cover the causes of the global financial crisis, the policy response thus far, and the outlook for the world economy, with a focus on the US and Australia. LOCATION: ‘In Good Company’ workplaces, 4th floor of 16 [...]

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Commemorative Envelopes

Published in June 18th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
3 Comments

Unexpected and wonderful things can happen when you stick your neck out, as I have done over Australia’s private debt bubble. The “tall poppy” syndrome can still cut you down, but you also find that people are willing to assist in ways that you’d never think of yourself. One of those has just occurred with [...]

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Grantham on the Australian Housing Market

Published in June 17th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
126 Comments

Jeremy Grantham pricked, if not the housing bubble itself, then at least the bubble that property market spruikers live in, with the quip that: “Bubbles have quite a few things in common but housing bubbles have a spectacular thing in common, and that is every one of them is considered unique and different.” (Housing market [...]

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Empirical and theoretical reasons why the GFC is not behind us

Published in June 13th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
63 Comments

Preliminary Remarks As noted in Debtwatch No. 44, I have stopped writing the monthly Debtwatch Report to focus on my more long term research. I’m still posting occasional blog posts when I feel the need—like the two recently on Australia’s new resources tax—but generally I’ll be working on more technical matters, and posting entries based [...]

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Boston & New York, June 20-July 9

Published in June 9th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
17 Comments

I will be in Boston and New York soon, either side of the Hyman Minsky Conference that I’m speaking at at the Levy Institute. I am committed to meetings on Tuesday-Wednesday June 22-23 (and possibly Friday June 25), to the Levy conference June 27-29, and there may be a seminar jointly organised with Eric Janszen [...]

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Does the RSPT deserve ReSPecT Part II

Published in June 2nd, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
104 Comments

As I explained in my last post, the cost curve in the Treasury’s model of the RSPT is based on a fantasy. The situation is even worse when we turn to the other side of the model, the demand curve: it is based not merely on a fantasy, but an outright fallacy. Legions of economists [...]

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Blogroll

  • 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
  • 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
  • 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
  • 20070314: Warning on ‘silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ‘shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
  • 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
  • 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
  • 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
  • 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
  • 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
  • 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
  • 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
  • ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
  • Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
  • Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
  • Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
  • Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
  • Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
  • Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
  • Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
  • Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
  • First home payments hit $3000 per month
  • FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
  • Global House Price Crash
  • House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
  • Housing Affordability
  • iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
  • NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
  • Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
  • Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
  • RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
  • RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
  • RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
  • Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
  • The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
  • True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
  • Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
  • US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
  • US Housing Crash Blog
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