Thanks for all the feedback on the T-Shirt designs for my forthcoming walk from Parliament House to Mt Kosciuszko. I must admit I was a bit surprised by how many people were opposed to the distorted text, but I take the point (of course, there were some who were strongly in favour of it).
And I do also want to have some fun–it isn’t all sour grapes! As someone who has done graphic design at various stages in my life, I like the look of the “fit text to curve” text–it’s the T-shirt I’d like to have in my collection. So what I’ve decided to do is to produce at least 4 of the 5 T-shirts shown below, two of which have text fitted to the curves, and three of which do not.
In one of the text-to-curve cases, the text is easily legible–unlike the earlier design with US, Japanese and Australian house prices where the text overlapped; in the second, it’s an effort to read, partly because of the coloured text–but I want at least one shirt with a full range of colours.
I’ll alternate wearing the T-shirts on different days and stages of The Walk, and I will suggest to the (so far) three people who are going to do the whole route with me that we each wear one of them at the start at Parliament House.
I have also changed to the modern and linguistically accurate spelling of Kosciuszko, and I’ve added the references to the two blogs on the front of the shirt as well as the back, following suggestions from the blog.
Each of the shirts has a graphic to tell part of the story about why we’ve had a house price bubble–debt, government manipulation with the FHVG, and time. There were one or two suggestions about doing the T-shirt with just words (and adding an answer to the question).
I’d prefer to keep some information content in them that may be relevant in a future when the bet itself is no longer remembered.
All that makes the T-shirts rather busy–which detracts from the aesthetics–but in the balance between information and appearance, I’ll bias in favour of the former.
The only shirt I’m unsure of is the last, showing mortgage debt to both household disposable incomes and GDP (the reason I have both there is that the fall in the ratio to disposable income at the end was because the impact of the government’s stimulus package and RBA rate cuts on household disposable income was actually larger than the increase in mortgage debt caused by the FHVB; that’s why that ratio fell while the mortgage debt to GDP ratio rose).
So the five designs are:
Design No. 1
Design No. 2
Design No. 3
Design No. 4
Design No. 5
I realy should have proof read that…
SURFACE AREA
DECLUTTERING
Maybe a group of protestors could picket line parliment house before setting of on the walk…
I have to admit that I have not kept up with comments of late. Just had a quick scan through and as far as I can tell there has not been discussion that Steve’s T shirt is the only one that need be encumbered by the text of the bet.
It would be possible to also provide rejoinder messages on the Tshirts worn by other walkers.
For example – “Then ask him why Rory will be doing the same walk” with some associated graphics.
I will be proud to wear any of the Tshirts I’ve seen so far, and will no doubt be buying a couple
Since there do seem to be some qualified people here commenting on design, just wondering if I can get some assistance with some Tshirts I’ve been thinking of having made. I do not want to dilute the discussion here going on about Steve’s shirts (need to get Steve’s shirts sorted before moving on) – so if you could email me directly at homes4aussies@yahoo.com that would be great. These are two that I would like to have designed.
Front – “If you are not enough without one, you will never be enough with one”
Back – “For those on a good income, Houses are going cheap” – graphic scale with a house as the fulcrum (“$450K house” below house), small empty pot on the high end (“interest & costs = $2,800/month”, large pot overflowing with gold coins on lower end (“rent = $1,500/month”) – “Save the difference!”
Front – “Every $K over is a killer!”
Back – “First Home Buyer Loan Size” – Graph using RBA data – “Don’t be a Bloody Idiot”
Queenslanders will recognise the 2nd one as a parody on the state government’s anti-speeding campaign.
Why not put the word ‘wrong’ in inverted commas with a footnote:
I Was Hopelessly ‘Wrong’* on House Prices – Ask Me How…
*Because First Home Buyers Grant Inflates Bubble – That’s How.
+ add the graphic of the house prices with grant inputs. Use the same colour for FHBG wording as the lines showing the timing inputs of this on the graph.
ooh – documentary, that is new information and it certainly changes the perspective.
Are we allowed to know who is making it?
‘sj’ 20
You are wrong on a couple of points.
Most of the people on this site are pointedly and specifically NOT “following the herd”.
and yes the whole situation would be laughable if it weren’t so serious; but in the end the large majority won’t be “having fun”.
Was it the smokin it or selling it that saved you from the GFC? Just having fun of course!
“documentary”
What started as an attempt to get the sobering message pushed across may become yet another celebrity grooming exercise.
If anyone want a good read and a laugh:
You’re not a smart property investor, you’re a @#&+
http://blogs.news.com.au/jackmarxlive/index.php/news/comments/own_a_few_houses_youre_a/P140/
Steve,
As one of those who’ll be beside you on this trek, I’ve given the T-shirt thing much thought over the past couple days. Here’s my 20c worth, if you don’t mind (and pls delete if you do!).
I’m sure that no matter how humble you may be, it must be at least a tiny bit galling to have to wear the required bet message for the cameras. But my sincere advice is this: Do not shy away from it. Not in the slightest.
Rather, hold your head high. State the compulsory message clearly, and boldly.
In so doing, you will give your opponent/s no room… not even a little… to denigrate you or cast aspersions on your character vis-a-vis fulfilment of the terms of the bet.
Humility and Dignity are timeless virtues. Being “seen” by others as being right (or wrong), especially about mere forecasting, that is nothing more than a passing moment in time. But, if you fulfil the terms of the bet with dignity and honour, without any hint of shame, it is your personal virtue that will transcend April 15-23.
And so, when the inevitable decline does happen, the public will not just recall in vague fashion your economic message and past warnings. FAR more importantly, at that time they will clearly remember you, Steve… for your display of a noble and virtuous character.
If you wear a Tshirt – especially on the first day – that is in any way cluttered or difficult to comprehend in a sound bite, the broader public will only grasp one concept from it all. And that is this: “Oh, some economist ‘hopelessly’ screwed up on a bet about house prices, and now he has to walk to Kosciuszko”.
What you want is for people to remember YOU, Steve. And IMHO, the best way to do that is to puzzle them, by planting a question mark in their conscience.
No one likes to be embarrassed. No one. So you will give people cause to wonder “WHY isn’t he embarrassed?”, if they see you on TV, standing there unashamed, humble yet dignified, while wearing the equivalent of the Dunce Cap. At the very least, you can provoke an emotional (thus memorable) response in people by making them feel, “Oh gawd, how embarrassing! I’d hate to be in his shoes right now”.
That’s why I think you should wear a very simple Tshirt, just with the required message. At least at Parliament House.
Taking all things into consideration, I’d very respectfully suggest the following:
(1) At Parliament House, wear a design with a simple, bold, unadulterated proclamation of the message you are required to wear in order to fulfil the bet. That is the most important thing of all. Your Honour wrt fulfilling the bet itself. Not whether you are right or wrong.
Now, if you want the other 3 (or more) of us to wear related, or indeed, qualifying messages, I think that would be fine. Just so long as you personally cannot be seen (or accused) to be shying away at all from the terms of the bet, then I think your companions can wear whatever messages YOU wish to say, in support of your economic views.
Plus, I imagine this approach might increase slightly the total “screen time” given to your story, as well as making it more comprehendable to a wider cross-section of TV viewers. The alternative is the likelihood of TV jamming all the (cluttered) visual details of the story into one quick screengrab of your Tshirt.
(2) People have miniscule attention spans. If you want to have any chart/s filmed (AND comprehended) for TV news at the start, then I’d suggest (a) have we your fellow travellers wear it, and/or (b) make it a super simple, memorable, and above all, a dramatic chart.
(3) Never forget the essence of your message. Steve Keen’s economic emphasis is Debt. Not house prices. So yes, while this particular media event is due to a housing-related bet, be consistent and true to yourself. Continue the fight on your territory, not theirs. Favour simple, clear, memorable charts and information that emphasises Debt, and govt encouragement of Debt.
(4) I agree entirely your thoughts about the importance and relevance of all the various charts. Particularly for the purposes of the doco you’re making. Just don’t forget that April 15 is your key day for planting a memorable message in the public consciousness. On that day, I think it’s far less important to try and show that you are Right… than to demonstrate that you are Righteous.
After all, he who is seen OVER time as being Righteous, is greater than he who may be seen for A time as being Right.
(5) While I think you should focus on Debt charts, I do think Design 4 is a ripper. Especially the “It’s only a matter of time…” caption. As a standalone, espec. for the doco when you’ll have time for the camera to dwell on it while you explain it, I’d consider adding in house prices for (say) UK, Ireland etc too. European / Anglo-Saxon countries in particular. Really drive the point home that house prices have fallen off a cliff in heaps of other countries, ones that many Aussies will subconsciously identify as being “just like us”.
Cheers.
BarnabyIsRight.com,
Unfortunately have to I fully agree with you. No fiddling with the text and the message must be simple.
It is not Steve vs Rory. It is the Debt (and all the rotten vested interests) vs Australia.
Good arguments BarnabyIsRight (hope you don’t mind me abbreviating this to BIR in future!),
I agree with all points except leaving off the graphs, since one issue I do wish to make a strong statement about is the First Home Vendors Boost. I think most people here would agree that, were it not for that policy, I would not be walking in April, and it is a policy I specifically criticised prior to the bet with Rory.
Anyway, I need a break tonight everyone, so I’ll get back onto this tomorrow. I will also get rid of the distorted text, but stick with the graphs.
Cheers all, and thanks for the feedback. I need a bit of tough love occasionally, and I think you’ve all provided that. I do appreciate it.
Steve, totally agree with you about the FHVB. Totally. If there’s just one housing-specific point that I were going to make a song and dance about, and with a chart to highlight it, then that one is it, for sure. An utterly immoral policy, IMHO.
Just do be sure to have at least one shirt – even if it’s a one-off just for April 15 – where you stick the arrogant tossers’ message boldly and proudly right back in their face… with a big, confident smile radiating above it on yours
And if you feel you must have a chart on that one too, just be sure their stupid message is the most prominent part.
It’ll be a dignified “up yours”. The best kind.
It might take a little time to really find its mark…. when people are in the sh*t, and remember that courageous and honourable economist who was not too proud to wear an “I was hopelessly wrong..” Tshirt for 230km, but actually turned out to be right (and Righteous) all along
How about:
The price of properties are a:
A. Ponzi Scheme
B. Bubble
C. Mania
D. Gravity Defying Act
***************************
What does a housing bubble look like?
Look around you.
***************************
Walking for your financial health.
***********
Housing bubbles all end well.
Just ask the USA.
******************
The First Home Owners Grant needs to be Quadrupled.
Ask me why.
A further thought Steve – someone earlier mentioned that you should switch the word “mania” to “bubble”. I agree. “Bubble” is well and truly in current parlance, directly and commonly associated with all the negative mental images that you want to invoke in viewers (eg), dot com bubble, sub-prime bubble, GFC, etc etc. It’s a stigmatised word. One that hits an instant mental bullseye for your arrows fired at debt and risk.
“Mania” by contrast, does not have all those instant (negative) mental associations. If anything, due its long association with mental health issues, its a word that much effort has gone into de-stigmatising over the years. So nothing like the same impact potential, IMHO.
I also imagine that you, or one of your many creative readers, can likely come up with some clever related taglines, or even simple pictures (popping balloon?), to make a further connection for the word “bubble”. Not so easy to do anything similarly creative with the word ‘mania’, without inviting unnecessary comment from the Patrick McGorry’s of the world
I believe that there should be no limit to our creativity. Steve has to wear a t-shirt with the exact text from the bet. I believe this issue has already been sorted out. But we don’t need to wear identical or pre-approved t-shirts.
In my opinion anybody who shows up in Canberra on April 15th may have his/her own design.
I would only suggest not using offensive language, not displaying any commercial adverts and not going personal against anyone including the politicians from the ruling party (I may not trust them as well but this is a separate issue). We should not attempt to hijack the event but rather show moral support to Steve and the level of concern about the debt level and housing unaffordability in Australia.
These issues have started getting traction in MSM already:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/why-our-foreign-debt-is-a-taboo-topic-20100312-q42h.html
Foreign debt of banks has been used to finance the mortgages and investment in the productive sector of the economy. What is missing in the article is the second part of the story:
It is not that one dollar from a Chinese/Japanese investor is lent out as one dollar to a house buyer. One dollar from a Chinese/Japanese investor is used to offset a few dollars lent out to a house buyer. The government has (fully or partially) guaranteed the deposits and the Icelandic scenario is not entirely impossible if the bubble collapses leading to bankruptcies of debtors and leaks in the banking system. Because the level of the mortgage debt in Australia is significant compared with the level of debt owed by the companies – it is simply not true that borrowed money has been invested into the productive sector of our economy. We have to admit that money borrowed from overseas has been used as a fuel to prop up our housing bubble.
Barnaby may be right…
Here’s an idea on the “bubble” theme line.
Maybe you could get a novelties firm to make up balloons printed with your “Keenwalk” “debtdeflation” “housing bubble” message? Have someone walk around Parliament House outfitted like a classical (heh heh, get it? subtle connection) fairground balloon vendor, handing them out to the press et al? Lots of bright colours, matching in with your colourful Tshirt designs. Adds an appropriately “circus”-like flavour / visual image for the cameras too.
Then, we could all be holding them as well when you do your interview/s. Perhaps you might have a clever, memorable little line viz. “housing bubble”, and we your fellow travellers could each pop a balloon after you utter your line… for impact
Just a thought.
Hey ak, thanks heaps for that link. You know where that story’ll be going next.
If someone can source some “sky-high debt” balloons then I’m pretty sure a suitable circus-themed vendor on stilts could be arranged to hand them out on the day
Great idea pragmatist. Brilliant! Maybe we could even have some “clowns” as well… you can see where this is all going. Love it. Subtle, connects so many messages together, and great visual imagery for the cameras.
You wanted fun Steve… well here ’tis!
Huge side benefit of these concepts is that the light-hearted approach would really cast the whole “lost the bet” thing to one side. Show you in a great light. And get the emphasis back on your territory. It’s all about the Debt debt debt.
“Wanna Debt lolly, little boy?” (to the media) … ??
All day suckers, naturally
There will actually be a circus troupe on stilts on the weekend coming into Cooma!
Hi Al49er
Good got some black humour mate bottle it’s worth a fortune!
I know real pain out there and I’m actually very concern about the way things are going in this country.
Left school very early did not come from a priviledge background so I know about suffering.
Stuff I’m smoking (Reading) is unpredictable,dymanic and unstable knowledge.
Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness famous old teacher Benoit Mandlebrot his work on small worlds, patterns of chaos fractals is brilliant.
Teach you how to protect your capital in a unstable world.
Good luck.
Steve, that’s awesome… Providence, anyone?
I’m really excited about this whole balloons / circus / clowns / sky-high debt concept. So much so, I’m now off for a cycle on the minor adrenalin rush.. gotta get these legs and dicky knee in shape.
Maybe we should dress as clowns too, just for the first day? Nothing like self-deprecation to demonstrate that you’re a Bigger (and Better) man than your opponents. And show that you don’t take the bet thing personally… no shame at all, you’re enjoying it!
It would also really ramp up the visual message, and ensure it hits the news – while they can edit out the stilt walker/s etc if they wish, they can hardly edit out you/us too