As most Australian readers would know, I recently lost half of a bet over Australian house prices when the Government’s “First Home Owners Boost”–which I prefer to call the First Home Vendors Boost–reignited Australia’s house price bubble.
As a result, I’m walking from Australia’s Parliament House to Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciousko–a distance of 224km (140 miles). The walk will start at 2pm on Thursday April 15 from the entrance to Parliament House and–my legs willing–finish 8 days later on the summit of Mt Kosciousko (which is 2228 metres–or about 7000 feet–above sea level).
I have started a new blog www.keenwalk.com.au to support the walk, which I will use to draw attention to the absurdity of basing economic policy on making housing less affordable.
I would be delighted to have the company of any blog members or readers who can spare an afternoon for a 15km or so walk with me. Full details are given on the other blog, but in a nutshell I will be running about 15km every morning, and walking about the same distance every afternoon starting at about 2pm (anyone who can make it to Canberra one evening should have no difficulty driving to the start of any given day’s walk, since the entire drive from Canberra to Mt Kosciousko can be done in less than 3 hours).
The site won’t be as active as Debtwatch–I can barely handle the workload from one blog, let alone two! (Incidentally, Debtwatch is now getting about 60,000 unique readers each month). It has a static front page explaining why I’m doing the walk, and other pages for sponsorship, talking about the charity I’ll be supporting, and so on. During the walk itself I’ll blog frequently about the day’s activities, how I’m bearing up physically, who came along for the day, etc.
I reproduce the press release launching the new site below. Please go to the site to read the “Why I’m Walking” front page, which is an exposition on the housing bubble in Australia. I’ll copy that post to here in a few days time, but for now I’d like to get the new site inaugurated with a large number of visitors.
And if you can afford a day or so to come along and join me for the walk, please do sign up!
Launch of www.keenwalk.com.au
Steve Keen lost half of a famous bet with Macquarie Bank’s Rory Robertson when Australian house prices set a new record in September of last year. As a result, Steve is walking from Parliament House in Canberra to Mt Kosciousko—a distance of 224km. The walk will start on April 15th at 2pm. Steve plans to cover about 30km a day and finish in the afternoon of April 23rd.
Steve is hardly cowed by having lost half of the bet. “The main bet, over whether house prices here would fall by about 40% over 10-15 years as they did in Japan, is still alive and well”, he noted. “Rory may yet have to follow in my footsteps.”
He also commented that even critics of his outspoken views on the economy agree that the Rudd Government’s “First Home Owners Boost” was the main reason house prices were still rising a year after Robertson proposed the bet. “Even Terry McCrann, who’s hardly a fan of mine, agreed that my nickname for it—the First Home Vendors Boost—is apt (“Behaving stupidly on first home buyer grant”, Herald-Sun November 3rd 2009). All the Boost did was drive up prices, as first home buyers used the extra A$7,000 to borrow another $30-50,000 that they handed over to the sellers.”
“Now, as Fujitsu Consulting has shown, almost half of those new owners are financially stressed. The money they borrowed stimulated the economy, but what will happen to them and the economy when they can’t afford to keep up the payments? They are potentially the sacrificial lambs of Australia’s so far successful evasion of the GFC.”
“I’m happy to walk from Parliament House to Mt Kosciousko if I can draw attention to the absurdity of basing economic policy on making housing more unaffordable.”
Today Professor Keen launched the website www.keenwalk.com.au, which will support the walk and raise funds for the charity Swags for Homeless.
“Swags for Homeless is a brilliant Australian innovation, providing real help now to the 16,000 people sleeping rough in this Lucky Country. Every $60 raised will provide one homeless person with a portable weatherproof swag, to make those evenings in the open less uncomfortable.”
Professor Keen will do the walk solo if necessary, but he’s more than happy to be joined by others. “If you agree that Australia’s housing prices and policies are crazy, and you can manage a 15km walk, then sign up at www.keenwalk.com.au and join me for an afternoon stroll on the road to Mt Kosciousko.”






February 19th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Hi Karmaisking,
I agree that we need to work together–in the sense that critics of neoclassical economics and the social delusions it has fostered spend their time mainly criticising neoclassical economics rather than each other.
I also think that even where there are disputes in analysis–and having read that Shostak piece you referred me to now, I can confirm that I do disagree with much of the analysis there–it is still possible to come up with reforms that address the key problems that critics see with the current system.
There’s also a need to learn from experience. I for one am not a fan of either regulation or government/Central Bank manipulation to control the problems I see in finance–I think that sets me outside the broad Post Keynesian camp in some ways, which I’m happy to do because I think the recent history should show that such systems ultimately fail.
I was pleased to see Rothbart’s support for aspects of Glass-Steagall given the current institutional setting; that raises my main approach to preventing this problem in the future. Though I don’t want to see the State trying to control finance, the State does define its legal context–and I would like to see that reformed by laws that simply redefined capital assets: redefine shares so that once on the secondary market last 25 years rather than for perpetuity, and limit the maximum debt that can be secured against property to 10 times the annual rental income of the property.
February 19th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
noah cross @ 48,
Yes, deductive logic and axiomatic methodology is what makes Austrian, neoclassical, Marxism and a great deal of Keynesianism nonsense that policy should never be based upon. This is why we need a revolution in economic theory, led by engineers and physicists.
Our social and economic systems would be far more equitable and stable if we had an economic theory based upon inductive methodology and empiricism, rather than inventing and fabricating economic models that are designed to ensure the power of our owners and managers.
Economists believe that the price of goods and services within our economy is determined by the forces of supply and demand, that is, everything expect the supply and demand of economic theory itself.
The rich (millionaires, billionaires, executives, managers, administrators, directors, owners, etc.) create a great demand for economic theory that justifies their wealth and power. Economists who supply such economic theory will be rewarded, especially if it is interests of the masters of the system of public subsidy, private profit.
Economic theory is such a supple instrument, with its practitioners rarely at a loss to provide the required arguments to support the conclusions of the moment.
There are two great journal articles by Mark Blaug and Joseph McCauley on this issue if you are interested in them.
February 19th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Steve,
You know I have enormous respect for you and am concerned about the walk you’re about to undertake (drink plenty of water, watch out for cars, and just take a taxi in the middle of the night up the mountain if you get tired – no one will care either way and it’s more important you keep researching than being killed by a drunk driving out of Canberra).
However, you clearly still don’t “get” the Austrian perspective. One. Last. Try.
First, your solution relies on govts and central banks doing the right thing. I agree increasing reserves, re-defining capital assets to remove Ponzi-assets from the mix, and generally tightening up on bank accounting would lessen the severity of the cycles. But so what?
Nationaliation of the banking system would also be a good move. So would free banking. Why haven’t ANY of these solutions been tried?
Well, perhaps the answer is that govt is corrupt to the core. Evidence:
Exhibit A:
http://karmaisking.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/central-bankers-as-hells-angels/
Exhibit B:
Fed charing 0.5% to the banks (virtually free money) and the banks buying up 100% secure T-bills (3%), mortgages (6%) or business loans (8%) with the free money JUST AFTER the biggest taxpayer funded bailout of the banking industry in world history!
Exhibit C:
Rudd Bank. In fact the whole corrupt Rudd “stimulus” (get Aussies into deeper debt) package.
Exhibit D:
The history of the Bank of England, the Fed, and the RBA.
Exhibit E:
The history of FRB generally. Google “Money Masters” or “Money as Debt” for hours of video entertainment.
If you think, in the face of this brazen counterfeiting, theft, corruption, monetary malfeasance, criminal lying, destructive Mafioso-style barbarism… if you think THESE SAME PEOPLE, THESE SAME INSTITUTIONS are going to listen to you and implement your reasonable “anti-bank” solutions, then you’re as naive as someone who still thinks America’s gold rests in Fort Knox.
You keep looking for “technical” “within the box” solutions to BIS/APRA liquidity rules, or accounting changes or capital adequacy ratio definitions… when the WHOLE SYSTEM is f***ed to the core.
You need to think of solutions that would work without govt, because govt will never implement anything that curtails the power of the banking system.
It’s that simple.
February 19th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
Philip we may be at cross purposes in terms of definitions.
Inductive is involves moving from a set of specific facts to a general conclusion. It can also be seen as a form of theory-building, in which specific facts are used to create a theory that explains relationships between the facts and allows prediction of future knowledge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning
That is in part where the AS comes from. It is very difficult to draw valid (logically valid) propositions in inductive logic. Even Sherlock Holmes who uses inductive logic, though it is widely and erroneously assumed that he uses deductive logic. Inductive offers analytical insights; deductive is commonplace. Axiomatic principles within AS are a further problem which requires an induction principle to work.
February 19th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Perhaps we are, I will need to take another look at it again.
February 19th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
Hi Karma,
Maybe wed better leave this discussion till I have time to explain fully why I disagree with the foundations of Austrian analysis, but very quickly my own reforms don’t rely on goverments and central banks doing the right thing. I’m in favour of abolishing the latter except as a clearing house for interbank debts; on the latter all I want is two laws passed which police and the judicial system would then maintain. Getting those laws even proposed would require a near total breakdown of the system so that the current oligarchy was overthrown–but then the same thing would apply for Austrian reforms.
I made no recommendations about BIS/APRA rules–I don’t believe they would work.
February 19th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Agreed Steve. Both our proposals rely on the death of the current system. But people are preparing for this inevitability:
http://mises.org/daily/4102
I suppose the key issue is that I think your soutions would allow the slow creep back of the same banking sociopaths into positions of power, whilst the Austrian solution would stave off banker-Mafioso takeover of govt for a few decades longer than your solution. Evidence: the decades in the US on the gold standard after Jackson killed the Second National Bank.
Let’s just both pray for the quick collapse of the current unsustainable insane system so something (anything) better can be implemented before Peak Oil and the coming Food Crisis kills us all.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/dec/13/britain-faces-food-shortage
February 20th, 2010 at 8:14 am
And finally (promise)! a brilliant piece from deflationist Antal E Fekete on why gold (even in deflation) is the only asset to hold:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17363.html
Steve is great on the modelling, but I dare say not so great in seeing the full implications of the disaster in front of us. Fekete sees the implications of the current system right to the end, and is running (not walking) to gold.
February 20th, 2010 at 9:12 am
Hi Steve,
I would be an honour to walk(bike in my case) with you. As you are aware that I will have to travel from Perth and the current flight prices are prohibiting my attempt to join you.
So… in case I don’t make it, I will make a contribution to Debtwatch funding(Is this tax deductable?). However, I will try my luck on “Happy hour” via Virgin and see if there is a cheaper flight.
I do wish to join you at least in part even if I can’t make the full 8 days..
Take care my man, at least you got guts.. so credit where it’s already overdue.
February 20th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Thanks Debt2Death,
I hope you can make it but if not, a contribution to the venture would be appreciated (they’re not tax deducible unfortunately; I tried to get a setup with UWS to have the donations go to a research fund there, and also attempted to get a not-for-profit to establish such a fund, but nothing has come of either venture).
On that note, if there are any lawyers on the list then I would appreciate some assistance in setting up a legal structure so that there are no income implications for me from the donations. I was informed recently that they could be interpreted that way, and I have therefore delayed making any more use of them until I sort this out. However with the walk approaching the need to be able to access those funds and those raised via donations to the Walk (which have just exceeded $1,000) will soon arise.
An accountant friend said that forming an Association would be sufficient, and directed me to this website. It doesn’t appear all that onerous–and I can cover the incorporation costs–but it does need a meeting of at least 5 people to get it started. Since I am so time constrained, I would appreciate assistance from any Sydney-based members of the list in getting this going. Any takers?
February 20th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
I know a Partner who is head of the Charity & NFP practice group at her firm. She actually gave a Masterclass today on “tax” surrounding the legalitites to NFPs. Call her secretary direct 02 9223 9049 she’ll hook you up pronto.
February 20th, 2010 at 11:16 pm
Whow… the dogs are out again.. look at the denial by Rory..
“While Mr Robertson disagrees that there was a second part to the bet, he says he is still happy to do the same walk if Australian house prices drop 40 per cent from any new peak during his lifetime.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/16/2821232.htm
I think you may have to pull the emails out again, Steve. This is one slimy bar steward!! Even though we heard it in the recordings into approx 37 mins of your talk at Parliment Hse!!
Reminds me of my previous life in local government..
Shocking and shameless..
February 21st, 2010 at 7:18 am
Thanks Karmaisking–I’ll call on Monday.
February 21st, 2010 at 7:27 am
Steve,
I would like to contribute to forming an Association as I live in Sydney – but I am also quite time constrained. Please let me know when and where you want the meeting to be held.
February 21st, 2010 at 7:30 am
Re #62 Debt2Death,
Yes, I’ve seen that stuff. Not knowing Rory at the time of the bet, I agreed to it without discussing terms; having experienced him since, I wouldn’t agree to anything off the cuff with him–I’d insist on lawyers drafting terms beforehand. As I tried to tell him after the event, his interpretation meant that I was effectively being asked to call the peak in the market–since making September 2008 the reference point for the “Peak to Trough” calls it the peak.
If he’d put that bet to me in those terms, I would have refused. I wasn’t making a short term prediction but one over a decade or more, since there was every chance the bubble could rise again before it burst (especially since the FHVB had been announced the month before).
However I quickly realised that any attempt at getting such subtleties through to him would be interpreted as me backing out of the bet, so I gave up and just made sure I got that “if ever” statement out of him–which he now regards as an after the event modification of the bet.
I’ll leave things as they are D2D–one of the good things about having got to the position is that I don’t have to debate with Rory any more! There are people on the other side of the debt and property debate whom I don’t mind engaging with–such as Chris Joye–but Rory isn’t one of them.
February 21st, 2010 at 9:17 am
Thanks ak; that’s two of us now–another 3 volunteers from Sydney please and I’ll then work out a time and place where we can meet and form a DebtWatch association.
February 21st, 2010 at 2:19 pm
Steve@65,
I believe you did interject at about 37 min and emphasise the phrase “over 10 to 15 years…blah blah Japanese syndrome”.
Well, I can therefore regard you as a ‘Professor(Associate) and a Gentleman’ and whilst you honour your words, some slimy dogs don’t… mind you if I were a bwanker I would hire him too..
February 21st, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Opps.. sorry mispelled ‘Bwanker’ should be ‘banker’…..
My apologises
February 21st, 2010 at 2:58 pm
That sounds bit like a typo of mine in a recent paper Debt2Death: I wrote “econcomic profession” when I meant to say “economic profession”.
I decided to keep the typo…
February 21st, 2010 at 9:10 pm
Thanks for a great Sunday night laugh D2d and Steve! I’m still laughing now
at 68 and 69.
February 21st, 2010 at 10:14 pm
Karmaisking #57
In reply to your post on an imminent food crisis, looks like the economists might bugger up our food production too, their solution is:
“In the case of farming practices, economists argue that small farms are too inefficient and should be incorporated into larger outfits, for example. Owners of small hill farms oppose the idea, however.”
Monbiot summarises the correct answer, with empirical evidence that it leads to higher production, empirical evidence being something economists seem to have no need of in spouting their theories:
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/06/10/small-is-bountiful/
Quote:
“A recent study of farming in Turkey, for example, found that farms of less than one hectare are twenty times as productive as farms of over ten hectares(3). Sen’s observation has been tested in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Malaysia, Thailand, Java, the Phillippines, Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay. It appears to hold almost everywhere.”
February 22nd, 2010 at 5:00 pm
Hi Steve,
Sounds important; founding member of the DebtWatch association…
Assuming we’ll meet after hours in western Sydney somewhere, I can help out.
February 22nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Thanks MechEng,
It would probably be in the inner west–say the Bar Italia in Leichhardt? And it would definitely be after hours. I need to do this in the next couple of weeks, so I might put a call up on the blog for a Sydney Debtwatch dinner followed by forming an Association.
February 22nd, 2010 at 10:04 pm
MMitchell,
You are so right. Read Michael Rowbotham’s book The Grip of Death for a BRILLIANT description of how our monetary system is destroying small scale, efficient, high quality, sustainable farming.
The debt-based system concentrates resources into massive unnatural conglomerates, until they topple over under the unmanageable weight of their own instituational mass.
We are headed for complete and utter disaster.
http://www.prosperityuk.com/prosperity/revus/grip.html
http://www.cfoss.com/grip.html
Why not have the meeting at The Winery by Gazebo. It’s in Surry Hills, has great views, nad has a $24 mussels special for two every Monday! Just had dinner and it was terrific.
February 22nd, 2010 at 11:37 pm
The Winery looks pretty good Karmaisking (can we count you in for the gathering when it happens) but I am conscious of people coming from the west of Sydney.
What I’ll do is put a post up later this week calling the meeting and suggesting a few venues. Then the one that is the most convenient can be discussed and we can proceed. I’ll aim for a night early in the week so that other social activities aren’t hampered (I am aware that some spouses do complain that you lot do spend rather too much time here as it is!).
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:29 am
Surry Hills isn’t difficult to get to from the West. And what about people in the South or North? I’ll be there when it happens.
February 27th, 2010 at 5:27 am
[...] debacle in Australia confirms this. Steve described those who took out the FHBG as the potential sacrificial lambs of the Australian economy, and we can only hope that there won't be a loss that affects an entire [...]
March 4th, 2010 at 10:59 am
Steve,
Did I miss the anouncement of the DebtWatch association meeting?
March 4th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
Hi MechEng,
No, not yet–too busy with other things. If I can I’ll get a call out this weekend for a meeting probably early the week after. Sorry for the delays but even on my standards I have a lot happening right now.