CSIRO-UNEP Modelling

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The Unit­ed Nations Envi­ron­ment Pro­gram did a very unusu­al and far-sight­ed thing last year: it asked the CSIRO to pro­duce a ver­sion of its bio­phys­i­cal mod­el of the Aus­tralian econ­o­my for devel­op­ing coun­tries, and to pair that with an eco­nom­ic mod­el which had to be non-equi­lib­ri­um in nature.

The Stocks and Flows Resource Mod­el­ling team at CSIRO Sus­tain­able Ecosys­tems, which main­tains this bio­phys­i­cal mod­el, approached me in July to see whether I would be will­ing to attempt the devel­op­ment of that non­equi­lib­ri­um mul­ti­sec­toral eco­nom­ic mod­el.

The CSIRO’s bio­phys­i­cal mod­el uses a soft­ware pack­age called WhatIf? that is designed for mul­ti-dimen­sion­al aggre­ga­tion of data and extrap­o­la­tion of the trends that data dis­plays. Resource data is stored at as dis­ag­gre­gat­ed a lev­el as pos­si­ble (pop­u­la­tion, for exam­ple, is dis­ag­gre­gat­ed by age, sex and loca­tion), and then aggre­gat­ed to the nation­al and glob­al lev­el. A sim­i­lar exer­cise applies for con­sumer demand, which is dri­ven by an age-based pro­file of the pop­u­la­tion, allied to the con­sump­tion pat­terns that apply for each age cohort across all indus­tries in an econ­o­my, and the resource require­ments of out­put in that indus­try.

As I doc­u­ment in this paper, the project to devel­op a mon­e­tary, mul­ti-sec­toral, non­equi­lib­ri­um mod­el of pro­duc­tion was suc­cess­ful, while the CSIRO suc­cess­ful­ly adapt­ed their Aus­tralian stocks and flows mod­el to the avail­able Asian data. The CSIRO and I pre­sent­ed our results to the UNEP group in Novem­ber.

The video qual­i­ty is pret­ty terrible–I’ve learnt a bit about film­ing since then–but nonethe­less here they are. The videos “speak for them­selves”, so I’ll let them do just that.

Franzi Poldi’s expla­na­tion of the CSIRO’s of the Asia-Pacif­ic Stocks and Flows Mod­el:

Steve Keen’s Debt­watch Pod­cast 

| Open Play­er in New Win­dow

My expla­na­tion of my mul­ti­sec­toral mon­e­tary mod­el (and the PPT file for my talk):

Steve Keen’s Debt­watch Pod­cast 

| Open Play­er in New Win­dow

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