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Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

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Swinburne Talks

Published in January 31st, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
86 Comments

I’m giving two talks at Swinburne University of Technology on Thursday February 4th. The information below is reproduced from the flyer for the event developed by regular blog contributor Matt Mitchell, who has arranged the talks:
12.00pm – 2.00pm: DebtWatch : Observations and reflections on the educative role of modern media

Dr Keen will discuss his experience using [...]

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CSIRO-UNEP Addendum

Published in January 31st, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
3 Comments

I forgot to post my presentation file in the first version of this post. I’ve since edited it, but I know that a lot of people using RSS feeds would not notice the change. So here is the presentation that I gave at that talk to UNEP in November:
The Powerpoint File
A PDF version

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CSIRO-UNEP Modelling

Published in January 30th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
35 Comments

The United Nations Environment Program did a very unusual and far-sighted thing last year: it asked the CSIRO to produce a version of its biophysical model of the Australian economy for developing countries, and to pair that with an economic model which had to be non-equilibrium in nature.
The Stocks and Flows Resource Modelling team at [...]

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Debtwatch No. 42: The economic case against Bernanke

Published in January 24th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
344 Comments

The US Senate should not reappoint Ben Bernanke. As Obama’s reaction to the loss of Ted Kennedy’s seat showed, real change in policy only occurs after political scalps have been taken. An economic scalp of this scale might finally shake America from the unsustainable path that reckless and feckless Federal Reserve behavior set it on [...]

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Google–lower bandwidth version

Published in January 22nd, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
34 Comments

A number of readers have complained that the video of my talk at Google took up too much bandwidth, resulting in “jerky” vision. Here are the same two files in a somewhat lower quality compression–half the size of the original files.

As one viewer noted, it is also feasible to download the files to your PC [...]

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Talks@Google

Published in January 20th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
88 Comments

Google runs a regular seminar series on topical issues, which I spoke at last week. There was a substantial audience (see the quick scan of the audience below) and Google’s staff lived up to their hyper-intelligent and hyper-engaged reputation.

I gave a presentation that combined my standard talk on debt and Minsky, with some exposition of [...]

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The Ignoble Prize for Economics

Published in January 13th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
235 Comments

The Real World Economics Review Blog–which is run by PAECON, the “Protest against Autistic ECONomics”–has just launched “The Ignoble Prize for Economics“.
The intent is to select by popular vote the “three economists who contributed most to enabling the Global Financial Collapse (GFC)”.
Nominations are now open, and anyone can nominate up to three individuals by visiting this page and [...]

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How expensive is housing?

Published in January 12th, 2010
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
106 Comments

This is often treated as a “how long is a piece of string?” question, but The Economist has performed a great public service by allowing an easy comparison of the length of this piece of string across many countries and over time.
Check it out yourself. For Australian readers, house prices today are almost 2.5 times what [...]

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Blogroll

  • 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
  • 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
  • 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
  • 20070314: Warning on ’silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ’shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
  • 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
  • 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
  • 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
  • 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
  • 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
  • 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
  • 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
  • ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
  • Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
  • Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
  • Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
  • Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
  • Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
  • Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
  • Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
  • Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
  • First home payments hit $3000 per month
  • FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
  • Global House Price Crash
  • House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
  • Housing Affordability
  • iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
  • NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
  • Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
  • Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
  • RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
  • RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
  • RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
  • Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
  • The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
  • True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
  • Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
  • US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
  • US Housing Crash Blog
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