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Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

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2009 Retrospective

Published in December 31st, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
451 Comments

Party like it’s New Year’s Eve 1930
I recommend that you finish the year with a look at the News from 1930 blog, which is providing some “year in review” commentary on 1930 now–including these details on the market highs and lows. Obviously some things were much worse in 1930 than today–notably industrial production and the [...]

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It’s Debt, Debt, Debt for Australia!

Published in December 29th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
122 Comments

Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph pointed out a new record for Australia: our ratio of household debt to GDP is now higher than the USA’s. I’ve written the following commentary on this dubious “gold medal” (or is it really lead?) for the ABC’s The Drum.

In all the self-congratulations over how Australia has managed to sidestep the [...]

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Interview on Engineer.net

Published in December 27th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
99 Comments

I was recently interviewed by Eric Tavenier for the website Engineer.net, which is an engineer recruitment and job search service in the USA.
Eric was taken with my advocacy of what I called “Engineer Capitalists” (in contrast to the financial spivs who dominate business today in the USA) in my interview on The Keiser Report, and [...]

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Mish on the Fictional Reserve System

Published in December 23rd, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
76 Comments

Mike Shedlock (“Mish” as he is known to all) has written an excellent piece on the deflation-inflation debate, focusing on the Achilles Heel of the latter–the fact that it is based on the belief that we live in a “fractional reserve banking” monetary system. He offered to let me cross-post here, and I’ve reproduced it [...]

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Max Keiser Interviews

Published in December 20th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
179 Comments

Max Keiser interviewed me for his 4th Keiser Report when I was in Paris earlier in December. I come in at about the 13 minute mark after Max’s banter with Stacy:

It was a great interview–Max had about ten questions prepared, but only asked about 3 of them because the conversation flowed so well.
We also recorded [...]

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Circuit Theory and the state of Post Keynesian Economics

Published in December 16th, 2009
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
120 Comments

I gave the following presentation at the 4th Dijon Money conference (December 10-12 2009):

Briefly, my paper explained how various conundrums that have stymied the development of Circuit Theory for 20 years were in fact the result of confusing a stock (an initial loan) with a flow (the economic transactions that loan could initiate over a year). With [...]

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Mish on Tech Ticker

Published in December 9th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
305 Comments

Mike (“Mish”) Shedlock’s site MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis provides regular, incisive and down to earth commentary on the US and global economies, and his site is one of my first ports of call when I want do take a more critical look at any US data that appears to be more dissembling than informing.
Mish [...]

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Senator Bunning Berates Bernanke

Published in December 8th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
32 Comments

This is too good not to spread: Senator Bunning berates Bernanke at his confirmation hearing. What Bunning lacks in oratory he more than compensates in forthrightness and integrity. One phrase alone is worth hearing: “We [should] punish failure not reward it”.

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Debtwatch No 41, December 2009: 4 Years of Calling the GFC

Published in December 1st, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
408 Comments

I first realised that the world faced a serious financial crisis in the very near future in December 2005, as I prepared an Expert Witness Report for the NSW Legal Aid Commission on the subject of predatory lending.
My brief was to talk about the impact of such contracts on third parties, since [...]

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Blogroll

  • 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
  • 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
  • 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
  • 20070314: Warning on ’silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ’shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
  • 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
  • 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
  • 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
  • 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
  • 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
  • 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
  • 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
  • ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
  • Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
  • Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
  • Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
  • Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
  • Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
  • Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
  • Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
  • Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
  • First home payments hit $3000 per month
  • FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
  • Global House Price Crash
  • House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
  • Housing Affordability
  • iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
  • NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
  • Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
  • Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
  • RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
  • RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
  • RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
  • Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
  • The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
  • True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
  • Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
  • US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
  • US Housing Crash Blog
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