More on Michael Hudson’s visit

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Michael’s visit is being organ­ised by Pros­per Aus­tralia, and they have asked me to link to their page detail­ing the tour and his speak­ing engage­ments while in Aus­tralia. It’s quite a good page, with some well cho­sen links to some of Michael’s research:

Pros­per Aus­tralia: Pro­fes­sor Michael Hud­son Tour­ing Octo­ber

The fund-rais­ing wid­get has so far raised A$305, which is pretty good–thanks to all those who have donated so far. More dona­tions of course are wel­come: it would be good to hit the A$1,000 mark if at all pos­si­ble, which will fund Michael’s hotel accom­mo­da­tion while in Syd­ney and make a con­tri­bu­tion to the air­fares for him­self and his wife.

As noted, if we raise suf­fi­cient funds this time, I’ll do the same to arrange a pub­lic talk by Paul Ormerod when he is in Syd­ney in Novem­ber.

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  • GSM

    Phase “B” of the recession/depression. Fits nicely with wave “C” of the index decline as well;

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/161175-u-s-economy-now-entering-phase-b-of-the-recession

    Bot­tom line: We are now enter­ing Phase B of the reces­sion

    (it is bet­ter described as a depres­sion, with a small “d”). We are likely to see sus­tain­able declines in per­sonal con­sump­tion for sev­eral quar­ters, since unem­ploy­ment is high and still ris­ing, crimp­ing earned income. I very much doubt that banks will go on a lend­ing spree to house­holds to sup­port spend­ing — in fact, I believe they can’t, given the atro­cious shape of their bal­ance sheets.

    After the cur­rent tran­si­tion period in GDP fig­ures, which is char­ac­ter­ized by a sta­bi­liza­tion in busi­ness spend­ing and inven­to­ries, I am look­ing for a series of quar­ters of –2% to –3% GDP declines, almost all of it from con­sec­u­tive declines in con­sumer spend­ing, par­tic­u­larly in ser­vices.”

  • DrBob127

    Prof. Keen,

    You have pre­vi­ously said that Alan Kohler is one of those com­men­ta­tors that ‘gets it’ and I am inter­ested in you take on his lat­est pice ‘The Lehman les­son is ongo­ing’.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-Lehman-lesson-is-ongoing-pd20090914-VUSXM?OpenDocument&src=kgb

    He seems to be say­ing that eco­nom­ics needs to go through a ref­or­ma­tion (at least some parts of it) which is con­sis­tent with the major­ity view held at this blog. But he also talks about global econ­omy being ” firmly in recov­ery” which seems to go against th grain of dis­cus­sions here which are decid­edly bear­ish (and expect­ing a big­ger decline to come).

  • The Out­back Ora­cle

    Hi BTB I flew into Sin­ga­pore a few weeks ago and noted that the photo of lots of ships at anchor that I had seen some time ago still held true. So thank you for the con­fir­ma­tion.

    What is more inter­est­ing from my view­point, ship­ping rates on goods com­ing into Aus­tralia have pretty much tre­beld in the last few months. Thjis is the result of an Aus­tralian Gov­ern­ment approved monop­oly agree­ment betwqeen all teh ship­ping com­pa­nies serv­ing Aus­tralian ports. This is offi­cially ap[proved by the ACCC. If a small retailer has a con­ver­sa­tion with another retailer within a few hun­dred miles he faces mas­sive fines from the ACCC. Yet this group buts out reg­u­lar updates on their price increases all offi­cially signed by the par­tic­i­pat­ing com­pa­nies.
    The Agree­ment is offi­cially sanc­tioned by the ACCC.
    My per­sonal opin­ion is that cor­rup­tion is afoot…but that is just me!!!
    Ship­ping rates to Aus­tralian ports are now 3 x rates to ports on the US West Coast.
    GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!

  • DrBob127

    Of par­tic­u­lar inter­est to me is the arti­cle “House prices ‘need US-style col­lapse’”

    http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,26070663–5013951,00.html

  • clive

    Great Link DrBob
    If they are right that home own­er­ship has only increased by 0.8 per cent in ten years then Steve has been pretty close to the mark much of boom has been spec­u­la­tion.

  • mahaish

    eureka!! gsm

    ive fig­ured out why lehmans et al went to the wall a year ago, they obvi­ously didnt hire enough astrologers 🙂

  • Dr Bob 127
    I am not sure about Alan Kohler, I think maybe he runs with foxes and hunts with the hounds. Whether it is tongue in cheek or not I have yet to decide, how­ever I like somone who says what he thinks until oth­er­wise. The Busi­ness Spec­ta­tor poste an arti­cle bt Prof. Keen today. It is bril­liant in anal­ogy and Alan seems to sup­port this. On other occa­sions he seems to say that we are going to have a V shaped recov­ery and that we are not going to see ant reces­sion.
    One can’t have their cake and eat it too.
    Per­haps I mis­read it Time will tell and in the mean­time I am not going to be harsh for we are in con­fused times.
    Steve I wish you arti­cle could be reprinted here so your loyal blog­gists could copy it. It is a mas­ter­piece.

  • mahaish

    thanks for the pic btb,

    it will be inter­est­ing to see if it will bring back the ghosts of nor­mandy or d day

  • mahaish

    i’ve been mean­ing to men­tion this site for some time

    if any­ones inter­ested , henry ck liu’s site is well worth a visit from time to time,

    he paints his thoughts with an inter­est­ing brush

    com­pul­sory read­ing in my view

    http://henryckliu.com/

  • debtjunkies

    Jim Rogers’ take on the recov­ery.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/32837500

    Read the arti­cle and watch the video link.

  • It’ll turn up tomor­row gaday–and it might even get a run in the MSM too…

  • Henry’s an old mate (vir­tu­ally speaking–we haven’t met face to face) from my days on the Post Key­ne­sian dis­cus­sion list before its demise some years ago. A very clear thinker. I sec­ond mahaish’s rec­om­men­da­tion.

  • Effit

    Hi All

    I haven’t posted for quite a while for a vari­ety of rea­sons that I won’t bore you with. Am fol­low­ing the dis­cus­sions though. Thought you may enjoy this email doing the rounds if you haven’t seen it yet:

    For those with an advanced knowl­edge of eco­nom­ics you may be inter­ested in this!! 

    It is the month of August; a resort town sits next to the shores of a lake. 

    It is rain­ing, and the lit­tle town looks totally deserted. 

    It is tough times, every­body is in debt, and every­body lives on credit.

    Sud­denly, a rich tourist comes to town.

    He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 dol­lar bill on the recep­tion counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. 

    The hotel pro­pri­etor takes the 100 dol­lar bill and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.

    The Butcher takes the 100 dol­lar bill, and runs to pay his debt to the pig raiser.

    The pig raiser takes the 100 dol­lar bill, and runs to pay his debt to the sup­plier of his feed and fuel.

    The sup­plier of feed and fuel takes the 100 dol­lar bill and runs to pay his debt to the town’s pros­ti­tute that in these hard times, gave her “ser­vices” on credit.

    The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 dol­lar bill to the hotel pro­pri­etor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.

    The hotel pro­pri­etor then lays the 100 dol­lar bill back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not sus­pect any­thing.

    At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspect­ing the rooms, and takes his 100 dol­lar bill, after say­ing that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.

    No one earned any­thing. How­ever, the whole town is now with­out debt, and looks to the future with a lot of opti­mism.

    And that, ladies and gen­tle­men, is how the Gov­ern­ment is
    doing busi­ness today.’

  • clive

    Com­mis­sion Calls for New Eco­nomic Yard­stick

    Gross domes­tic prod­uct is an insuf­fi­cient stan­dard for deter­min­ing eco­nomic health and should be expanded to include mea­sures of sus­tain­abil­ity and human well-being, a com­mis­sion of lead­ing econ­o­mists said in a report pre­sented to Pres­i­dent Nico­las Sarkozy of France on Mon­day.’

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/15/business/global/15gdp.html

  • clive

    This I find annoy­ing…
    Wall Street’s Math Wiz­ards For­got a Few Vari­ables

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/business/13unboxed.html?_r=1&em

    So the US is going to spend prob­a­bly bil­lions look­ing at new mod­els. What a shame they didn’t lis­ten to a some­one who saw it com­ing and already had some pretty good mod­els already in devel­op­ment.

  • DrBob127

    Gad­day,

    Thank you for tak­ing the time to respond to my ques­tion.

  • Willy2

    I would love to see a video of this pre­sen­ta­tion ! Please, make a video of his pre­sen­ta­tion !!!!!

  • I’ll do my best–can’t guar­an­tee, but the odds are very good.

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