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Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

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It’s Hard Being a Bear (Part Six)?Good Alternative Theory?

Published in September 27th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
410 Comments

If the economy does in fact recover from the Global Financial Crisis—without private debt levels once again rising relative to GDP—then my approach to economics will be proven wrong.
But this won’t prove conventional neoclassical economic theory right, because, for very different reasons to those that I put forward, modern neoclassical economics argues that the government [...]

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Why I use Mathcad

Published in September 26th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
28 Comments

A new blog member asked “Why do you use Mathcad?” in response to my most recent post about using some of the funds donated by visitors to the blog to help fund my research.
It’s a very good technical question, and one that deserves more than just a reply to the comment. So I’ll try to [...]

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Thanks to donors

Published in September 25th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
16 Comments

Thank you to the roughly 170 individuals who have made donations to date via the “Donate” widget on the right hand side of the blog.
Donations have totalled A$7,730, of which about $800 has been for Michael Hudson’s talk in Sydney (on Friday October 23rd at Customs House, Sydney at 6pm).
I have just made the first [...]

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Dinner with Michael Hudson?

Published in September 23rd, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
6 Comments

There will be a dinner with Michael Hudson and his wife after the talk at Customs House on Friday October 23rd at a restaurant called Young Alfred, which is also in Customs House. The dinner will start at 8pm.
If you’d like to be part of the booking, please let me know via an email to [...]

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It’s Hard Being a Bear (Part Five): Rescued?

Published in September 19th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
445 Comments

I’m happy to admit that I underestimated how strongly governments would respond to this financial crisis. Dramatic reductions in interest rates, huge fiscal stimuli and—in the USA and UK—expansion of government-created money, have all had a positive impact on the economy and asset markets (both shares and houses).
In his recent essay, Australian Prime Minister Kevin [...]

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Good article by Ross Gittins on Economics and Equilibrium

Published in September 19th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
19 Comments

Ross Gittins has written a very good overview of the failings of neoclassical economics in today’s Sydney Morning Herald:
Self-righting markets and other shibboleths
The article mentions the Dahlem Report, but doesn’t provide a link to it. For those who would like to read it, here it is.
I also wrote a post on the Dahlem Report shortly [...]

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It’s Hard Being a Bear (Part Four): Good Economic Theory

Published in September 15th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
216 Comments

I delayed publishing this on the blog because I thought it was worth submitting it to a newspaper for first publication on the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse. That has occurred: a slightly edited version of this post (for reasons only of length, I hasten to add!) is in today’s Sydney Morning Herald (page [...]

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More on Michael Hudson’s visit

Published in September 12th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
69 Comments

Michael’s visit is being organised by Prosper Australia, and they have asked me to link to their page detailing the tour and his speaking engagements while in Australia. It’s quite a good page, with some well chosen links to some of Michael’s research:
Prosper Australia: Professor Michael Hudson Touring October
The fund-raising widget has so far raised [...]

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Michael Hudson Public Talk Sydney Friday October 23

Published in September 11th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch, Events
39 Comments

The renowned heterodox financial economist and economic historian Dr. Michael Hudson will be visiting Australia in October.
Michael is another of the handful of economists who predicted the Global Financial Crisis, and he has since worked intensively with the governments of Iceland and Latvia to attempt to pull them out of the economic quagmire. He shares my [...]

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It’s Hard Being a Bear (Part Three): Good Economic History

Published in September 5th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch
216 Comments

“Green shoots” are appearing everywhere—just read the newspapers, and you can be assured that we’ve turned the corner. Bar the latest rise in US unemployment—up 0.3% to 9.7%, after falling 0.1% the previous month—there’s nothing but good news as far as the eye can see.
Unless, that is, you take a look at a wider range [...]

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Blogroll

  • 20070308: Bad debts on the rise in mortgage belt
  • 20070309: Late-paid mortgages show pain in suburbs
  • 20070314: LateLine on the US Sub-Prime Crisis - Video of Tom Iggulden’s report on New Century’s woes and arguments (including mine) about its relevance for Australia
  • 20070314: Warning on ’silly’ loans - The Age covers the new ’shared equity loans’ being offered by Adelaide Bank and St George
  • 20070317: Onward rolls the sub-prime story in the USA
  • 20070725 New York Times “‘Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks”
  • 20070725 New York Times Op Ed “‘Stopping the Subprime Crisis”
  • 20070815: 7.30 Report “American mortgage shock waves hit Australia” - Profile of the Cooks case and views on the likely collapse of the mortgage market in Australia
  • 20070826 New York Times: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree - Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree
  • 20070917: How bad debt infected the world - Excellent Sunday Telegraph feature on CDOs
  • 7.30 Report - Many Baby Boomers will retire in debt–and I’m probably one of them!
  • ABC PM on US Subprime Crisis - Stephen Long covers the USA Subprime crisis and local angles with interviews of Steve Keen, Ian Rogers (The Sheet) and David Tennant (Care ACT)
  • Bear Stearns: Turmoil in sub-prime mortgages
  • Beware of Exploding Mortgages (New York Times June 10 2007)
  • Can the mortgage crisis swallow a town? - New York Times chilling description of the mortgage crisis’s impact on one town in Ohio
  • Centre for Policy Development - The policy portal that evolved out og the New Matilda
  • Credit derivatives: At the risky end of finance - The Economist on derivatives
  • Debtwatch Podcast - Debtwatch’s Monthly Podcast with Stuart Cameron (www.cameronmedia.com.au)
  • Debunking Economics - My Debunking Economics website. A wealth of lectures and papers, and a poverty of organisation!
  • Doug Noland - Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: the best analysis of America’s Speculative Bubble
  • First home payments hit $3000 per month
  • FN Arena: Mortgage crunch in Australia too? - FN Arena covers my March Debtwatch and more optimistic (or Panglossian?) takes on the situation from Macquarie Bank, etc.
  • Global House Price Crash
  • House of credit cards may fall - Robert Lusetich, Los Angeles correspondent for The Australian, bemoans the nature of America
  • Housing Affordability
  • iTulip - One of the best commentary sites on the Internet Bubble has been reborn amid the USA’s mortgage binge
  • NZ Reserve Bank on Regulation: PM May 9th 2007 - Interview on the Budget, Inflation, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank’s shift on regulation
  • Our economic managers - Non Sequitur’s brilliant take on those who think the “status quo” will last forever
  • Property Knowledge Group - An interesting impartial forum on housing issues, unlike most such forums that are either bulls or bears. Holds regular public debates on the topic. Well worth attending
  • RBA 2003 Conference on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy - This is an excellent set of papers on the dangers of leveraged speculation, and the capacity of the market for irrational behaviour.
  • RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables - The good people at RBA Statistics have recently added a Zipped file that contains all their XLS files–many thanks!
  • RBA Speech March 16th - One economic indicator not considered in Dr Edey’s presentation was the level of private debt…
  • Shared Equity Loans - Well-researched article on the pitfalls of shared equity mortgages
  • The New Matilda - Intelligent alternative thought on social and economic issues in Australia
  • True rate of home defaults hidden - Repossessions may be four times higher than reported figures
  • Two Depressions, One Banking Collapse - An excellent comparison of the 1890 to the 1930 Depression, by Chay Fisher & Christopher Kent, which shows how much more severe the 1890 downturn was for Australia, and the role of debt and housing speculation in that crisis
  • US Federal Reserve Historical Statistics - I use the Zipped “tabs” files from this page; check the bottom of the page for an explanation of the data structure
  • US Housing Crash Blog
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