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	<title>Comments on: &#8220;No-one saw this coming?&#8221; Balderdash!</title>
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	<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/#utm_source=feed&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=feed</link>
	<description>Analysing the Global Debt Bubble</description>
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		<title>By: The great interest rate rip off - Page 703 - The Consumer Forums</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-10/#comment-20959</link>
		<dc:creator>The great interest rate rip off - Page 703 - The Consumer Forums</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:09:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-20959</guid>
		<description>[...] The great interest rate rip off   &#8220;No-one saw this coming?&#8221; Balderdash! &#124; Steve Keen&#039;s Debtwitch   [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] The great interest rate rip off   &#8220;No-one saw this coming?&#8221; Balderdash! | Steve Keen&#39;s Debtwitch   [...]</p>
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		<title>By: McMahon Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-10/#comment-17719</link>
		<dc:creator>McMahon Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-17719</guid>
		<description>Steve
I would like to add to your list of economists with great foresight.William Kaye,an American based in Hong Kong writing in The Far Eastern Review in 1999 could see the future.William Slattery in february 2000 forecast here in Ireland that a property collapse due to rising private debt was inevitable.A Gary Shilling writing in Forbes june 2006 forecast a housing crash.
I like the story that Professor Tom Woods of The Vom Mises Institute in America tells quoting Peter Shiffs book about the circus coming to town and the local restaurant owner seeing so many clowns and trapeze artists filling up his restaurant every night decides to get a loan from his bank manager to expand his business and off course no sooner has he done that the circus leaves town leaving him with empty tables and loans he can&#039;t pay.
Ireland today looks like the town the circus just left,only we seem to be left with the clowns still running the show.
In the US or Europe or even Australia nobody in authority had studied the work on Ludwig Von Mises,Joseph Schumpeter,Hyman Minsky or Nicholai Kondratieff.
Steve,How do you compare this Great Recession with 1873-1896.I think the ghost of Hetty Green is walking down Wall St.
Michael McMahon Ireland</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve<br />
I would like to add to your list of economists with great foresight.William Kaye,an American based in Hong Kong writing in The Far Eastern Review in 1999 could see the future.William Slattery in february 2000 forecast here in Ireland that a property collapse due to rising private debt was inevitable.A Gary Shilling writing in Forbes june 2006 forecast a housing crash.<br />
I like the story that Professor Tom Woods of The Vom Mises Institute in America tells quoting Peter Shiffs book about the circus coming to town and the local restaurant owner seeing so many clowns and trapeze artists filling up his restaurant every night decides to get a loan from his bank manager to expand his business and off course no sooner has he done that the circus leaves town leaving him with empty tables and loans he can&#8217;t pay.<br />
Ireland today looks like the town the circus just left,only we seem to be left with the clowns still running the show.<br />
In the US or Europe or even Australia nobody in authority had studied the work on Ludwig Von Mises,Joseph Schumpeter,Hyman Minsky or Nicholai Kondratieff.<br />
Steve,How do you compare this Great Recession with 1873-1896.I think the ghost of Hetty Green is walking down Wall St.<br />
Michael McMahon Ireland</p>
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		<title>By: 20091104 - Adam Crowe</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-17161</link>
		<dc:creator>20091104 - Adam Crowe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:32:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-17161</guid>
		<description>[...] Steve Keen&#039;s Debtwatch &#8212; “No-one saw this coming?” Balderdash! &#160;11 economists who saw it coming: Dean Baker, Wynne Godley, Fred Harrison, Michael Hudson, Eric Janszen, Stephen Keen, Jakob Brøchner Madsen &amp; Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Kurt Richebächer, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff &#8212; 4 common elements of their predictions: #1. “a concern with financial assets as distinct from real-sector assets #2. with the credit flows that finance both forms of wealth #3. with the debt growth accompanying growth in financial wealth #4. with the accounting relation between the financial and real economy.”  predictions economics [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Steve Keen&#39;s Debtwatch &#8212; “No-one saw this coming?” Balderdash! &nbsp;11 economists who saw it coming: Dean Baker, Wynne Godley, Fred Harrison, Michael Hudson, Eric Janszen, Stephen Keen, Jakob Brøchner Madsen &amp; Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Kurt Richebächer, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff &#8212; 4 common elements of their predictions: #1. “a concern with financial assets as distinct from real-sector assets #2. with the credit flows that finance both forms of wealth #3. with the debt growth accompanying growth in financial wealth #4. with the accounting relation between the financial and real economy.”  predictions economics [...]</p>
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		<title>By: reason</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-13568</link>
		<dc:creator>reason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 08:25:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-13568</guid>
		<description>Interesting that my problem with modern day Georgians, is EXACTLY the same problem that people had with the original Henry George
http://michael-hudson.com/articles/realestate/0801George&#039;sCritics.pdf

By the way, I didn&#039;t reply to a request for links about increasing inequality and declining intergenerational mobility and declining marginal tax rates because it is not controversial (i.e. there is so much evidence and discussion about it), the request seemed simply unreasonable time wasting to me. A good summary here:
http://www.princeton.edu/~rosentha/POLARIZATIONPOLICYINEQUALITY.pdf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting that my problem with modern day Georgians, is EXACTLY the same problem that people had with the original Henry George<br />
<a href="http://michael-hudson.com/articles/realestate/0801George" rel="nofollow">http://michael-hudson.com/articles/realestate/0801George</a>&#8217;sCritics.pdf</p>
<p>By the way, I didn&#8217;t reply to a request for links about increasing inequality and declining intergenerational mobility and declining marginal tax rates because it is not controversial (i.e. there is so much evidence and discussion about it), the request seemed simply unreasonable time wasting to me. A good summary here:<br />
<a href="http://www.princeton.edu/~rosentha/POLARIZATIONPOLICYINEQUALITY.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.princeton.edu/~rosentha/POLARIZATIONPOLICYINEQUALITY.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>By: The Irish Economy &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Learning from the Financial Crisis: Globally and Locally</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-13527</link>
		<dc:creator>The Irish Economy &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Learning from the Financial Crisis: Globally and Locally</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 19:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-13527</guid>
		<description>[...] reader recommends this blog post which is critical of mainstream macroeconomic models.  Of course, Willem Buiter of the LSE issued [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] reader recommends this blog post which is critical of mainstream macroeconomic models.  Of course, Willem Buiter of the LSE issued [...]</p>
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		<title>By: President Obama ? - Page 6 - Cricket Web</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-13358</link>
		<dc:creator>President Obama ? - Page 6 - Cricket Web</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:44:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-13358</guid>
		<description>[...] Keen shows some other figures from different disciplinary backgrounds who also saw it coming.  &#8220;No-one saw this coming?&#8221; Balderdash! &#124; Steve Keen&#039;s Debtwatch  Even Marxist theorists saw it coming. Read some of the work by Michael Hudson (although he is more [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Keen shows some other figures from different disciplinary backgrounds who also saw it coming.  &#8220;No-one saw this coming?&#8221; Balderdash! | Steve Keen&#39;s Debtwatch  Even Marxist theorists saw it coming. Read some of the work by Michael Hudson (although he is more [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Josie</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-12813</link>
		<dc:creator>Josie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:20:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-12813</guid>
		<description>SuitablyIronicMoniker:

I don&#039;t want to hijack this blog into a discussion of climate science, but it is not really true that the climate is a chaotic system. Weather is chaotic, which is what prevents accurate long term weather predictions, but climate is the long run statistical average, which is different. The example often given is that you can&#039;t predict on the toss of a coin whether it will fall heads or tails, but you can make a pretty good estimate of the likelihood of getting different numbers of heads and tails if you toss it 1000 times. 

We are very familiar with the climate being a very predictable system, not a chaotic one. The seasons come in a regular fashion. You may get a cold day in summer (which is weather) but you won&#039;t get all the days in summer being colder than winter. If you turn down the sun, the temperature drops very predictably. After a volcanic erruption, the earth cools very predictably. If you double the amount of an important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the temperature rises.

Of course there is a great deal of uncertainty in climate science, and climate scientists emphasise it every step of the way. But not knowing everything is very different from knowing nothing. If someone&#039;s body is racked with terminal cancer you can&#039;t predict exactly when they will die, but you can predict that they will almost certainly not live another 20 years.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SuitablyIronicMoniker:</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t want to hijack this blog into a discussion of climate science, but it is not really true that the climate is a chaotic system. Weather is chaotic, which is what prevents accurate long term weather predictions, but climate is the long run statistical average, which is different. The example often given is that you can&#8217;t predict on the toss of a coin whether it will fall heads or tails, but you can make a pretty good estimate of the likelihood of getting different numbers of heads and tails if you toss it 1000 times. </p>
<p>We are very familiar with the climate being a very predictable system, not a chaotic one. The seasons come in a regular fashion. You may get a cold day in summer (which is weather) but you won&#8217;t get all the days in summer being colder than winter. If you turn down the sun, the temperature drops very predictably. After a volcanic erruption, the earth cools very predictably. If you double the amount of an important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the temperature rises.</p>
<p>Of course there is a great deal of uncertainty in climate science, and climate scientists emphasise it every step of the way. But not knowing everything is very different from knowing nothing. If someone&#8217;s body is racked with terminal cancer you can&#8217;t predict exactly when they will die, but you can predict that they will almost certainly not live another 20 years.</p>
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		<title>By: SuitablyIronicMoniker</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-12811</link>
		<dc:creator>SuitablyIronicMoniker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 21:23:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-12811</guid>
		<description>Hi Josie,

There is a lot of truth to what you say - but any predictive model in a chaotic system will only have a limited scope to see into the crystal ball. Futurology will always be an imprecise science, due to those very same las of physics.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Josie,</p>
<p>There is a lot of truth to what you say &#8211; but any predictive model in a chaotic system will only have a limited scope to see into the crystal ball. Futurology will always be an imprecise science, due to those very same las of physics.</p>
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		<title>By: Warren Raftshol</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-12810</link>
		<dc:creator>Warren Raftshol</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 17:42:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-12810</guid>
		<description>A good book that need to be revived is &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.questia.com/library/book/the-capitalist-manifesto-by-mortimer-j-adler-louis-o-kelso.jsp&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Capitalist Manifesto&lt;/a&gt; by Mortimer J Adler and Louis O Kelso.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A good book that need to be revived is <a href="http://www.questia.com/library/book/the-capitalist-manifesto-by-mortimer-j-adler-louis-o-kelso.jsp" rel="nofollow">The Capitalist Manifesto</a> by Mortimer J Adler and Louis O Kelso.</p>
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		<title>By: Josie</title>
		<link>http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/comment-page-9/#comment-12809</link>
		<dc:creator>Josie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 16:49:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?p=2331#comment-12809</guid>
		<description>Ueberbaer said:

&quot;just thinking.. so many economists with the wrong models and ideas…and so many climate scientists also using models and theories to explain their assumptions and believes…&quot;

No, these are not equivalent in any way. The term &#039;model&#039; is misleading. Climate models are based on the laws of physics and chemistry, which have been discovered through empirical research over centuries. All they do is solve lots of equations. Their outputs are then tested against real data and found to replicate and predict it very well. 

Economists just make up their &#039;models&#039; and theories and equations. That is what is so shocking about the subject if you are used to science- none of it arises out of empirical research. 

Economics is psuedoscience. That has no bearing on real science. If economists behaved like real scientists the subject would be very different.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ueberbaer said:</p>
<p>&#8220;just thinking.. so many economists with the wrong models and ideas…and so many climate scientists also using models and theories to explain their assumptions and believes…&#8221;</p>
<p>No, these are not equivalent in any way. The term &#8216;model&#8217; is misleading. Climate models are based on the laws of physics and chemistry, which have been discovered through empirical research over centuries. All they do is solve lots of equations. Their outputs are then tested against real data and found to replicate and predict it very well. </p>
<p>Economists just make up their &#8216;models&#8217; and theories and equations. That is what is so shocking about the subject if you are used to science- none of it arises out of empirical research. </p>
<p>Economics is psuedoscience. That has no bearing on real science. If economists behaved like real scientists the subject would be very different.</p>
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