Comments on: Out of touch for a few days/Black Swans

By: The Outback Oracle

The Outback Oracle — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 03:17:17 +0000

DOUFITZ

I read itulip.com a lot. Steve is used as a source there and widely quoted. It’s very USA oriented but there are a lot of good contributors from all over the world.
It’s hard to beat Steve’s site here for an Australian outlook that’s for sure

By: danny

danny — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 11:04:47 +0000

I’ve written a review of Taleb’s The Black Swan, at http://dannyreviews.com/h/Black_Swan.html

By: Robert

Robert — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 07:20:37 +0000

Prudent
A great resource on the demographics of baby boomers is Harry Dent Jnr’s ‘The Great Depression Ahead’ which cites the peak spending wave of the boomers in 2010 as a key driver of the depression.

By: ned

ned — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 23:19:54 +0000

Ok, so what is the outlook for interest rates during debt-deflation then?? The usual reason for the RBA increasing them is to combat inflation, since this won’t be a problem during debt-deflation I would expect interest rates to fall further. Is this correct?? Also is it what happened during previous depressions??

By: BrightSpark1

BrightSpark1 — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:08:21 +0000

Hi Prudent

The baby boomers who have saved will also be a load on the system because the are loosing most of their saving right now. Many were “advised” by FAs to engaged in geared “investment” in shares and real estate. Joining the world and national Ponzi schemes.

Whatever the baby boomers are going to cost is going to be microscopic compared to the cost of the unravelling of the world banking and trading systems which is going on right now. (By at least 2 noughts).

We live in interresting times. The “wild west” era of economics.

By: prudentsaver

prudentsaver — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 14:20:35 +0000

Is all those 65 trillions really something?

I think what is really going to break the western world are the baby boomers, and the time that have to come when they retire.

I think they have the mistaken belief that the governments will take care of them, not having saved. It could become a big problem.

By: dojufitz

dojufitz — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 05:21:57 +0000

Does the US have much debt?

http://thefinalhour.blogspot.com/2009/02/65-trillion-us-financial-obligations.html

By: dojufitz

dojufitz — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 05:04:53 +0000

Hi BTB,

JB is Jberni1 on youtube – you should be able to find his blog via his channel.

I think he is very good.

By: Bullturnedbear

Bullturnedbear — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:01:08 +0000

Hi Dojufitz,

Who is JB? I’m always keen to pump new opinions and theories into my small brain.

Hi Joshua,

Morgan Stanly must be desperate to find any thread of hope. Credit conditions are crashing, not improving.

The corporate bond market is in turmoil. With governments across the globe planning to borrow massive amounts of money this year. The corporate bond market will be further crowded out by a massive flight to quality. Also interest rates for corporations are and will continue to skyrocket. Corporate Bankruptcies are likely to soar in the next 18 months. Due to an inability to rollover capital alone. Risk aversion continues to rise!

Be careful when writers identify one metric to confirm their findings. This crisis is very complex. Re-read “Steve’s Roving Cavaliers of Credit” to see why expanding base money by $1T will have zero effect when credit money is crashing by the tens of trillions.

By: dojufitz

dojufitz — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:27:34 +0000

The Outback Oracle – that other site you mentioned – would that be JB?

I also read his thoughts…