I’ve recently added a Calendar widget to the blog–just below the login widget on the left hand side.
I will use it to maintain a calendar of upcoming public events–and also conferences where I am speaking–as well as media coverage, if I get enough notice of it. The widget is very well designed–days coloured red to indicate an activity; hover over a highlighted day to see a summary; click on the date to get full details.
The first event there is a discussion about the crisis on the Sky News Program “On the Record”, at 8am this morning.
Please keep an eye on this if you want to know of any forthcoming talks.
Cheers, Steve
February 9th, 2009 at 7:52 am
Morning Steve & All.
Firstly, I’ll be watching.
Second; your site has already created a great forum for ideas and debate, so if it aint’ broken, why fixit?
Third; there appears to be growing speculation that America will default on it’s debts, ABC Lateline (Paul Keating interview) and this from GEAB; On this subject, LEAP/E2020 wishes to made a recommendation for the intention of international financial institutions, and in particular of their statistical services: it is urgent to set up an alternative international accounting system, based on a basket of currencies (for instance: 25% USD, 25% Euro, 25% Yen and 25% Yuan, until political leaders make a formal decision about a global basket) because when the US defaults on their debt and the global monetary system breaks down as we anticipated should happen next summer 2009, there will be immediate disastrous effects on the accounting of international financial assets and flows. Therefore it is urgent, even if it results from non-official discussions and “black” accounting, to backup the current statistics (calculated in US Dollars mostly) with another version, based on a basket of currencies, in order to secure the continuity of statistics while the global monetary system is being rebuilt. Site: http://www.leap2020.eu/index.php?action=&=
Would be interested in yours and others comments.
Regards CK.
February 9th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Hi CK,
On the site, I’m just concerned that the conversations are becoming hard to follow–and also, that people’s email in-boxes are becoming overloaded. I might trial a discussion forum as an adjunct to the site; if it doesn’t work well, then I’ll shut it down.
I like the idea of a basket of currencies to recalculate economic statistics–it’s akin to the SDR proposal for international trade that Keynes proposed at Bretton Woods and the Americans sank, with which we would have had a rather less speculative financial system than we ended up with. And it would definitely take some of the confusion of rising and collapsing currencies out of working out what’s going on. So yes I think that is a good idea.
A good basis would be a proportional currency calculation, weighted by the contributions of the, say, top 20 economies to global GDP. Of course you have a problem of working out who those are in currency terms right now, but it would be certainly better than using just the US dollar.
The team that’s working on revising the database beneath Debtwatch will think about producing a composite currency index as part of its revamping.
February 9th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Hi Steve,
watched the sky news debate, I hope that people were listening to to comment re debt levels, although I doubt that many would hear what you actually said.
As for your site, it is your site, so what ever you do I and others will continue to access it.
Many thanks, CK.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Hi steve, i love your blogs,
just wondering why you arent doing anymore podcasts they were really interesting
February 9th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Hi “Milton” (love the alias),
I’m still doing them, I’ve just been too overwhelmed to post them recently (and I am trialling a new software package to integrate them with the blog).
Hopefully I’ll post the outstanding ones this week.
February 9th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Do you have any events in Melbourne?
February 9th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Yes–please check the calendar in future, but as an early warning I am giving a paper at an open meeting to the Economics Society of Victoria this coming Thursday at 5.30pm. See the calendar for further details.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Hi,
The calender pop up for Thur 12th has Wed 12th in the top line.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Yike! That appears to be a bug in the software. The date is correct, the day isn’t.
It might relate to the program being written in the USA, or maybe my time zone not being set properly. I’ll see what I can do.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
The details are as follows (organized by Steve Kates – who I’ve had the pleasure of meeting):
The Great Depression: Are those who misunderstand history doomed to repeat it?
Steve Keen, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Western Sydney, has been a key and controversial commentator on recent economic developments. Steve is the author of the best-selling book ‘Debunking Economics’, maintains the popular Debtwatch blog, and has been widely cited in the media about the severity of the economic challenges that the Australian and World economies now face.
Date:
5.30pm, Thursday, 12th February 2009
Venue:
Productivity Commission Inquiry Room, Level 28, 35 Collins St
This event is free and open to the public.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Nothing to do with calendars. This is a market update for those vaguely interested.
The CBOE Put/call ratio (in the US). This is a measure of how many bulls are in the market relative to bears. The ratio is reading at an extreme. The last 2 days have registered 0.63 and 0.56. The 10 day average is now at 0.81. 0.81 is back to the level that the market hit in Oct ’07. An all time high.
That means most of the market is very bullish. A reading that is so lopsided sends a very bearish signal to me. When the whole market has bet on a rise, there are no buyers left. So the sellers win the day. That’s the theory anyway.
The market has been stalled waiting for Geithner’s Banking Bailout Package. I see two potential scenarios playing out. The market rallies on the announcement, runs out of steam in a day or so and then sells off hard falling past the Nov 21 market lows. Option two is that the market sells off as soon as the announcement is made and keeps tracking lower.
Why is this relevant to economics? I hear you ask. I think the market is a great measure of social mood. I also believe that social mood predicts and drives economic outcomes. The numbers coming out of Asia and parts of Europe are terrible. The numbers are a trailing indicator, whereas the market is a leading indicator.
February 10th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Steve,
I’ve resent the Excel spreadsheet using ABS data to extend Nigel Stapledon’s work.
February 10th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Thanks Phil, I’ll make sure that I include it in the presentation I’ll give on Thursday.
It looks like you’ll be coming along? I’d be pleased to meet you–and anyone else from the blog who can make it. Maybe we can go out for a Curmudgeon’s Dinner afterwards (with Steve Kates too of course!)
February 10th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Sounds good. There must be other members of DebtDeflation that reside in Melbourne as well, so it would be interesting to meet them. How long will you be in Melbourne for? Any other appearances scheduled for Melbourne?
What I find interesting is that the Productivity Commission adheres to neoclassicism, yet a classical liberal is organizing it, with a Post-Keynesian giving the presentation. If it wasn’t a public talk, the PC would never let the two of you come through the front doors.
An uncle of mine, who is a retired professor of economics at LaTrobe Uni, works at the PC and may be attending as well. I’ll try to bring along as many people as possible.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
I do look forward to meeting any members of the blog who are in Melbourne and able to come along. That said, I know that the bushfires are going to stop a lot of people, and for the moment are a far more important issue. I have friends in that region that I have not yet heard from, and I’m desperately hoping that they are OK. Hopefully I’ll hear something in the next couple of days.
And yes, Steve Kates has been amazing. He is as you say an avowed classical liberal–and believer in Say’s Law–but Steve is a classical liberal in the best of senses: he asked me to contribute to a book on 200 Years of Say’s Law because he knew I was critical of it (a Voltairean gesture); and I think from our recent correspondence that the experience of this crisis has caused him to re-evaluate his beliefs.
Ditto too about the Productivity Commission. Frustration with having to concede the high ground to them in industry policy submissions during the 1980s–when I knew they didn’t deserve it–played a major role in motivating me to go back to do my PhD and take on neoclassicism in its breeding grounds, the universities. It is rather ironic to be giving this coming talk there.
I’m attending a Think Tank on Housing on Thursday and Friday; it’s generally closed, but there’s a public talk by John Quiggin that I’ll advertise that on the Calendar now too (note that I can’t do anything about the day of the week bug on the calendar–though I’ll alert the developer–I think it has something to do with the application being written in America, where it’s the day before Australia’s day [the date's right but the day is not]).
So my Thursday night (and Saturday morning to some extent) are free, but the rest is committed.
And Melbourne-based bloggers, I hope we have the chance to go out for dinner and/or a drink after the session. I imagine we’ll finish around 7-7.30pm. Put on your thinking caps about good places to eat in the vicinity.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Hi All,
Everybody stop what you are doing and watch this video.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ca2_1234032281
If it happened on September 15. It will happen again. Like I have been saying for a while. Do not trust the banking system, government bailouts or rhetoric. This is a depression. In a depression most get wiped out. Even the prudent.
That’s why it’s called a depression and not a recession.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
I’ll be there on Thursday.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Hi Bullturnedbear, I also found this video a few hours ago on the front page of google news (top right)
Title: The One Jaw Dropping Video that Every Fool Must See Motley Fool – 8 hours ago
Looks like it’s spreading like a wildfire through the internet. It’s also on youtube.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Hi Bullturnedbear
Great link – we all new that sort of thing was happening – it is just unusual to hear it from an elected member of the US parliament.
Depression (Economic) from Wikipedia
“In economics, a depression is a sustained, long downturn in one or more economies.
- It is more severe than a recession, which is seen as a normal downturn in the business cycle.
- Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations.
- Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.”
Seems to me that we can tick all those boxes – so good call Bullturnedbear.
Steve – will you be coming to Perth this year?
February 11th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Hi Steve,
I love this site, the best one that is covering the economic crisis so far and has the balls to predict the worst. It very addictive reading at times and is a great forum for discussion on solutions to the largest problem in world history.
If the government is looking for short term economic boosts then why not abolish the super guarantee? Super has been a very inefficient and ineffective savings tool for Australian’s for their retirements, and it only benefits the wealthy as a tax dodge. Destroying this industry would free up so many more spending dollars and could possibly lead to slight wage reductions which would help businesses with costs.
Any thoughts?
February 11th, 2009 at 3:03 am
Could anyone please provide a view on Alan Kohler’s piece on 19th November 2008 on Business Spectator in writing about the synthetic CDO’s and Credit Default Swaps and the possibility of the bank’s poison providing its own antidote- is this a likely scenario? -
A tsunami of hope or terror?
“But for the banks, it’s happy days. Suddenly, when the ninth reference entity tips over, they will be flooded with capital. It’s possible they will have so much new capital, they won’t know what to do with it.
This is entirely uncharted territory so it’s impossible to know what will happen, but it is possible that the credit crunch will come to sudden and complete end, like the passing of a tornado that has left devastation in its wake, along with an eerie silence.”
February 11th, 2009 at 8:09 am
First bit is a possibility, but the punch line is impossible. Even if all the derivative toxic waste stuff collapsed, and even if banks suddenly had oodles of capital, the non-financial would still be carrying the biggest debt burden in human history. One cause of the credit crunch might disappear, but the Depression would still remain.
To paraphrase Dr. Frank N. Furter, it would remove the cause, but not the symptom.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:09 am
Hi Bullturnedbear & All.
Adding to your ‘run on the bank’ piece, read this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1127278/Revealed-Day-banks-just-hours-collapse.html
Regards CK.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:14 am
It won’t do it horsome–not early on anyway. And it would precipitate an enormous collapse on the stock market (imagine where shares would be now were it not for a fraction of 9% of every Australian salary going into share purchases)–not something I’m opposed to of course, but something the government is trying to prevent.
I agree of course that the super industry has been a massive delusion. You don’t invest for the future by buying financial assets: you invest by building physical ones. The super funds could have done so, at the risk of some bad investments, but instead they have simply pumped the share and property markets up.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:17 am
No plans Stats Watcher,
But if it could be arranged and fitted my schedule then I would be willing to come over.
At some stage I have to limit my public work though to get Finance and Economic Breakdown moving.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Hi Steve & Justthinking
You’ll probably all roll about laughing when I ask this dumb question, but I’m going to ask it anyway.
Steve, commenting on the super industry you say, ‘You don’t invest for the future by buying financial assets: you invest by building physical ones. The super funds could have done so, at the risk of some bad investments, but instead they have simply pumped the share and property markets up.’
What are the physical assets? Property? I’m confused.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Hi justthinking, Alan K revisited the synthetic CDO issue in today’s Business Spectator. He appears to have given up on the possibility of a tiny ray of sunshine.
Bullturnedbear, good call on the Dow Jones so far.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Hi All.
For those that have the time I would recommend this article. A condensed ‘The Fourth Turning” with commentary & prediction.
Baby Boomers- Your Generation’s Crisis Has Arrived – 10th Feb 09 – James_Quinn
For those who say “what has this got to do with Australia”, just remember, we are joined at the hip to America.
Regards CK.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:02 am
The Link: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8800.html
My apology.
CK.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Hi Effit,
I’m not answering for Steve. But my answer of what would have been a sensible investment for Super would have been to invest in productive business. That is, A business that produces a product that is then consumed. That way the profit from production can go towards repaying the initial investment and then producing a lasting return. This is hard and risky though, so the Super funds went for shares.
Most people are not aware that buying shares does not invest money into a company (unless it is an IPO or a Capital raising). Therefore buying shares is just speculating that the company’s shares will be sold to another party for a higher price in the future. The irony is that Super fund “investors” had no intention to sell. They still haven’t sold.
I also don’t agree with your comment Steve that the Super Guarantee is holding up share prices. I believe this to be a common misconception. Super funds have been buying and holding all the way down. yet the market is off 50%.
Whenever there is a buyer of shares there is always a seller. Therefore money moving from the sidelines creates the same amount of money on the sidelines. Because the seller receives the cash that the buyer put in. Sentiment on the other hand drives price. That is, If a buyer was willing (bullish) to pay a high price, the price would rise. If buyers are nervous they will be wanting to pay a lower price (bearish). Either way the cash in and out from either trade is the same.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Thanks CK,
I missed that story. Very interesting.
It is just a matter of time now until the Worldwide banking system is nationalised and the shareholders and bondholders are wiped out. The bondholders may be partially saved by some sort of debt for equity swap. But even that will tie up their money for many years to come. Also they would probably only get a sum of cents in the dollar for their bonds.
What that all means for Australia and the rest of the World. I have no idea. One would think that the creditor nations are the safest place. But under the above scenario, the creditor nations would suffer the greatest loss. Because they are the biggest bondholders.
I still do not have a better solution than physical cash. Foreign currency is getting too complex and risky and my views on gold have been well documented.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Bullturnedbear
I agree with Steve when he says that the super funds’ flow of money into the stock market is holding up share prices. I feel sure that if the super funds were to stop buying (I refuse to call it “investing in”) shares the prices would fall even further.
Shares, like real estate, are stll priced well above their real value. This even though they have fallen by 50%. They probable need to fall another 50% before their value as guaged by their dividend returns are realistic. The top 75%(and rising) of their price was maintained only by the proposition that someone would always borrow more and more to sustain the rise. Few people in the immediate past could see this but it is obvious to everyone now. The super funds were adding a bonus, their subscribers were and are simply bubble fodder, now throwing good money after bad as a requirement of statute law.
I must say that I have seen this happening for more than 20 years and have always considered the numbers on my super statements as representing “funny money”. In spite of “financial advice” I have contributed no more than I had to.
A house is worth a house, and a company is worth it’s ability to return a dividend, nothing more.
If the WTO or the GATT, and sucessive incompetent Australian governments had allowed real free trade (with protection from unrealistic exchange rates and economy of scale advantages) there would have been productive corporations to invest in within this country. But they even ruined most of our public assets by selling them into the this world Ponzi Scheme. No, super is just funny money, wasted on the alter of neoclassical economic theory.
Our real superannuation is negative represented by the mountain of debt both household and national.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Hi affordableHomes4aussies & all,
found this interesting: “ACTIVIST PICKETS CEOS’ HOMES FOR NEW MORTGAGES”
“A new kind of street warfare is breaking out against Wall Street titans – and it’s happening on their lawns and outside their lobbies too.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02102009/business/bank_on_change_154314.htm
February 11th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Hi CK,
Thanks for posing the story by James Quinn. Very interesting read.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Hi Bullturnedbear and BrightSpark1
Thanks for your thoughts on a better place for Super money to be invested. It makes a lot more sense to invest in a productive business, and as you say ‘that produces a product that is then consumed. That way the profit from production can go towards repaying the initial investment and then producing a lasting return’.
I think ‘they’ must have done a really good brainwash on me about Super being the best way to invest for my financial future. Probably didn’t help that I worked for a time in one of the first government regulatory bodies.
Last week I came in on the end of a radio interview with John Quiggan where he said that before the 1990s most Super schemes were defined benefit, but since then all Super schemes are market-linked and the investors now bear all the risk. Now we know how true that is, with the majority of funds in the share market.
I’d also been brainwashed that the ‘only way to go’ was to invest in the share market!
I’m so glad I attended that seminar some months ago where Steve gave his warnings about the coming recession/depression and as a result found this site.
February 11th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Hi Effit and Bullturnedbear
Before Bretton Woods John Maynard Keynes suggested a solution to the same problem that we face now, mountains of cross border debt.
His soloution involved an international exchange currency with negative (stabilising) feedback to penalise and eliminate imbalance by both imposing fines and changing exchange rates depending on national current accounts. Apparently it was the UK position at Bretton Woods, but the US, the worlds biggest creditor at that time, would not have a bar of it and instead set the ball rolling to the current disaster.
The US is now the world biggest debtor! I wonder what the current US goverment would think of this J M Keynes suggestion now? I wonder if the current US government will acknowledge US culpability for the current mess.
February 12th, 2009 at 8:28 am
Hi all.
Another interesting read: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1219039500.php
Cheers CK.
February 12th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Thanks CK – was a very interesting read.
February 12th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Brightspark,
Guardian journalist George Monbiot has a good article on it: http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/11/18/clearing-up-this-mess/