Jan 1973 to Sept 1974 – fall of 59.3%
12 month post low recovery 51%

Sep 1987 – Nov 1987 – fall of 50.1%
12 month post low recovery 35%

While the numbers are bad – there is always light at the end of the tunnel – even though it might only be the express train!

US falls:
Jan 1973 – October 1974 – fall of 48.2%
12 month post low recovery 38%

Mar 2000 – Oct 2002 – fal of 49.1%
12 month post low recovery 34%

thanks for posting the link to the videos of exponential functions http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY another eye-opener for me.

1. ‘BUY AN APARTMENT, GET A BMW’
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25000849-2682,00.html?from=public_rss

‘An “extraordinary” stunt involving free BMWs and luxury sports boats helped a developer defy the financial crisis and sell $3 million of houses and apartments at the weekend.

‘Urban Construct’s Developer Summer 2009 Clearance Sale, which started on Saturday, allows buyers to choose one of five incentives when they buy a property at Place on Brougham, North Adelaide, and Edgewater and Marina Cove, Newport Quays.’

‘They can choose from a BMW 320i, valued at $63,826, a Sea Ray 185 Luxury Sports Boat, 0 per cent finance interest for two years, plus stamp duty, or three years rent return, which also includes stamp duty.’

‘Social analyst David Chalke, ”You’ve also got to remember there’s a lot of BMW dealers that can’t get rid of stock and the boat market has virtually evaporated in the past year, so it’s also a good initiative for them too.”’

2. COMMSEC SAYS MANY WORKERS WON’T FEEL FINANCIAL CRISIS

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25001096-2682,00.html?from=public_rss

‘Interest rates are tipped to fall to the lowest levels in more than 40 years, but that will make little difference to a large number of Australians who will cruise through the financial crisis. For a section of workers who are experiencing falling petrol prices, hefty discounts in shops and living costs not rising as quickly as usual, they’re wondering what all the fuss is about, says economist Craig James of CommSec.

“For Gen-Y type staff, they are just scratching their heads to work out how the global financial crisis is really impacting them,” he says. “If they’re not paying off a home loan, if they haven’t got substantial share market investments but they’re in secure employment, then they’re probably not seeing a great impact. If anything it’s a positive. A lot of people are probably looking at the situation saying if this is what a recession looks like, then we should have more of them.”

Young workers who fit into this category are in a position to come out better than before, Marinis Financial Group’s Theo Marinis says. “Pretty much anyone who can maintain their job and their income,” he said. Mr Marinis said a large percentage of the population were “blissfully unaware” of dire economic predictions for the year ahead. “Most punters aren’t really aware of what’s going on, and maybe that’s a good thing.” He says a boost to the first home owners grant and the Government’s attempts to encourage spending mean more young people have an opportunity to enter the property market.
Mr Marinis says the gloom is never as bad as it’s made out to be. Even if employment hits 12 per cent, it still means more than 80 per cent of the workforce is employed.

“It’s the minority of the population that will get hurt.”

Noone should tro out the old line that “noone could see this comingz”. It was as obvious as the nose on Pinocchio’s face to anyone who cared to look. What is never obvious is just which side of a corrupted, distorted, financial system and economy would fall first. However once it started to fall, total collapse was inevitable. What is also never obvious is how much lying, cheating, and profligacy the Government system will go to in order to try to hide its mistakes and postpone the consequences past its watch.

I was interested in your article in the SMH Now we hsve a Government championing the massive budget deficits on which it is about to embark. Now, if Australia was a Current Account Surplus country with massive International Reserves, such as China, Japan, Norway or Singapore the policy would probably have merit. However we are a nation with,at last I heard, $648 BILLION i.e.$648,000,000,000 in Foreign debts (I suppose the attitude is …”well, what the hell difference is a few zeroes???). However that is the minor issue. The last numbers published on Foreign ownership of our Mining Industry was 68% but that was many years ago. (Funny how Governments stop publishing stats that are a bit inconvenient and they prefer the public not to know) My back of the envelope figures indicate that level is now 80% foreign ownership. The Mayne report, I note, came up with a similar number from a company by company analysis. Repatriation of interest and dividends is now a significant part of our Currrent Account Deficit which, these past few years, has been running at $50-$60 Billion.. Again I note Access Economics estimating the CAD will rise to $100 Billion ANNUALLY

Now, we know that all the vandals that went before before are responsible for this parlous situation in respect to our Foreign Debt. However what it surely means is that we cannot afford to run deficits (start massive stimulus spending) at this stage. The leakage into imports will be very high as we have little industry left. Someone on these pages may have some objecticve indication of this and i’d be grateful to see the numbers. In addition, what money is spent here is likely to be spent with foreign owned companies, since they own such a large proportion of our industry generally.

Now, clearly, anyone with half a brain can see all this. One can only assume that the dangers of it, and the increasingly parabolic destruction of the nation’s economic heritage, are being ignored in the name of political expediency or, alternately, a psychopathic desire to hold on to power no matter who gets hurt or how much. So, clearly the government has worked out some maths. Exactly what level of Foreign Debt does it regard as acceptable….$1 Trillion? 2? Exactly what level of foreign Ownership of our resources and Food chain does it regard as acceptable? This morning’s SMH article by Mr Chris Bowen, Deputy Treasurer promoting massive deficits ought, on balance, address these very important issues?

What does the governmen see as being left for our children after all this or is the great master stroke to be that we are happy to be serfs in our own land?

Again I am not interested in the politics. I am, however, deeply concerned that perhaps our land is governed by a bunch of psychopaths on both sides of the House. I would really love to know that this is not the case. I would like to see someone from either side of the House explain to the Australian people the really perilous nature of our position. Mr. Turnbull’s role in this mess, to date, has just been a disgrace. in this mess. There should be no political disadvantage in this as the mess has been created by successive myopic Governments of all colours since about 1957. At least then the Australian people would understand that we all need to make sacrifices to try to redeem our position and to leave something of this land and its inheritance for our children. Perhaps, just perhaps, we might make some progress.

If noone gives a rats…just ignore me

I think PK has it spot on with the micro change required to re-balance the world economy. But I say again, will the western european (white) economies surcumb to a redistribution of power?
I think he is saying something similar to what Steve’s debt moratoria suggests that creditor nations and debtors nations reconcile each other’s accounts.

And please ignore the interviewer’s attempts to politicise the debate. He is only the next Maxine McKew…)

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline

in total agreement with your correct line of thinking. There is no way that the house prices will remain where they are, the only way they are set to go is down. As Steve also points out, what the government is attempting to do is a drop in the ocean to what we are about to experience as a collapse in credit based growth takes hold, and with that a collapse in gdp, a spike in unemployment, which will follow up with mortgage defaults. This is what is about to beset the Australian mortgage holders. Export growth from the resource sector, disguised the fundemental weakness and with this now gone it is now exposed for all to see. As al49er points out all those who believed that wealth could be achieved out of something like housing, having been misled by the neoliberal ideology, will soon enough have the shock of their life.

Saw your interview on the Today show this morning – top marks in getting your points across – pity they spent more time on graffiti sentences.

This interview on ABC was also a great summary of where we are going -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/03/2480923.htm

Can you please explain one thing that I find troubling about Rudd’s new $42 billion stimulus package.
If government has to borrow $42 billion extra (and none of it is going into making us more productive long term) won’t that make Australia’s outstanding Debt greater and the problems of Debt Deflation even more severe?
Is there an alternative to a significant one-off Debt default/abolition by spreading the reduction over a number of years? For example if the world abolished 50% of debt at say 5% a year for 10 years could this spread the pain out?.