Today Tonight on pos­si­bil­ity of Depres­sion

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Chan­nel Seven’s Today Tonight is doing a piece on whether we might face a Depres­sion, and if so what it might be like. It should go to air tomorrow–Tuesday Feb­ru­ary 3rd.

They have inter­viewed me for analy­sis, and Eric Aarons–who lived through the Great Depres­sion and at 90 is still a dynamic sculp­tor and author.

They also want to speak to any­one who has lost their job recently–specifically if pos­si­ble as a result of the global finan­cial cri­sis.

So if any­one out there is will­ing to speak on cam­era about it, please con­tact the jour­nal­ist James Thomas:

His email is and his mobile is 0411 329 920.

About Steve Keen

I am Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London, and a long time critic of conventional economic thought. As well as attacking mainstream thought in Debunking Economics, I am also developing an alternative dynamic approach to economic modelling. The key issue I am tackling here is the prospect for a debt-deflation on the back of the enormous private debts accumulated globally, and our very low rate of inflation.
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  • Stats Watcher

    Hi Steve,

    If the stock mar­ket is any indi­ca­tor of future eco­nomic activ­ity then we are headed for a depres­sion – the real ques­tion should be How severe will it be? 

    The 5 worst crashes for the Dow Jones (I hope some­one could post the 5 worst for Aus­tralia)
    1. –86% in 1930–32 (813 days)
    2. –49.1% in 1937–38 (386 days)
    3. –48.5% in 1907-08 (665 days)
    4. –47.9% in 1929 (71 days)
    5. –46.6% in 1919–21 (660 days)

    Australia’s All Ordi­nar­ies has fallen by 51.8% from 1 Novem­ber 2007 to 23 Jan­u­ary 2009 (449 days) – using close of trade fig­ures. This is sec­ond only to the Great Depres­sion and ongo­ing volatil­ity could see fur­ther falls in com­ing months.

    If any read­ers are con­fused as to why expo­nen­tial func­tions, such as our cur­rent neo-clas­si­cal eco­nom­ics based cap­i­tal­ist sys­tem, are not sus­tain­able then it is advis­able to watch this video by Dr Albert Bartlett – Pro­fes­sor Emer­i­tus of Physics at the Uni­ver­sity of Col­orado. (there are 8 videos in total)

  • Paul

    Hi Steve

    Unfor­tu­nately I was not able to watch you on Today Tonight. How­ever, I now have to ques­tion if house prices will crash. It has become increas­ingly obvi­ous that the gov­ern­ment will do all it can to pre­vent this from hap­pen­ing. We just need to look­ing at the fol­low­ing

    Home own­ers grant for exist­ing and estab­lished homes.(Apparently in some states you can even get a fur­ther grant from the state gov­ern­ment)

    The assis­tance to the com­mer­cial prop­erty, which some argue was really designed to prop up the res­i­den­tial mar­ket.

    Neg­a­tive gear­ing, their is no sign that this is going to be abol­ished or at the very least amended.

    Reduc­tion of inter­est rates, which has reduced peo­ples mort­gage repay­ments. Many econ­o­mist now pre­dict that it won’t go below 2%. I heard some com­ments that they want to avoid what hap­pened in the U.S when inter­est rates went low.

    Paul Keat­ing on late line indi­cated that noth­ing needed to be done with res­i­den­tial prop­er­ties. I found this of great con­cern.

    What are your thoughts? 



  • It’s actu­ally (prob­a­bly) going to air tonight Paul (Tues­day).

    Yes the gov­ern­ment is doing all it can to pre­vent it–but this is rather like the myth­i­cal attempt by King Canute to stop the tide from com­ing in.

    I also find Keating’s state­ment of great con­cern, but it doesn’t amaze me. His admin­is­tra­tion rode a pri­vate debt bub­ble too, which made its eco­nomic man­age­ment look great in the 1980s and dis­as­trous in the reces­sion of the early 1990s. The same is hap­pen­ing again now, though in some ways his suc­ces­sor Peter Costello had the good for­tune to lose the elec­tion prior to the crash begin­ning.

    I don’t blame the pol­lies for this though–of either party. If there is any cul­pa­bil­ity, it is in the eco­nom­ics pro­fes­sion, whose alleged “exper­tise” on the econ­omy they nec­es­sar­ily had to trust–after all, politi­cians are the ulti­mate gen­er­al­ists; we crit­i­cise them if they don’t fol­low the experts else­where, why should eco­nom­ics be any dif­fer­ent?

    Unfor­tu­nately, as I argued in Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics, eco­nom­ics is far from being a sci­ence as yet, and what those trained in neo­clas­si­cal eco­nom­ics believe is sci­en­tific behav­iour is fun­da­men­tally bad ide­ol­ogy dressed up with bad math­e­mat­ics.

    Inci­den­tally, I will also be on Chan­nel Nine’s Today Show this morn­ing, just after 7am.

  • Suit­ablyIron­ic­Moniker

    Neg­a­tive gear­ing only makes sense in an asset infla­tion­ary bub­ble. If I owned an asset, I would want to make money after expenses (includ­ing inter­est paid on any loans).

    In hous­ing, it is gen­er­ally assumed that I will lose money each finan­cial year (inter­est pay­ments on the loan are larger than rents received). Some of this loss is taken over by the gov­ern­ment through tax­a­tion, but it is still a loss.

    The only way I make money is to sell the asset at a large cap­i­tal gain. This is where the real pol­icy incen­tive comes in, as I only pay 50% of the tax if I have held the asset for more than 12 months.

    This fun game dis­ap­pears if there is no asset infla­tion­ary bub­ble. There is no rea­son that Aus­tralian real estate has mag­i­cal prop­er­ties com­pared with the US, Japan, UK, Ire­land… It is all just mag­i­cal think­ing.

  • doju­fitz

    Suit­ablyIron­ic­Moniker — thanks as this is what i tell peo­ple at work who have homes and ‘invest­ment’ homes.

    I try to tell them there isn’t a giant golden koala pro­tect­ing aus­tralian homes…they just look blank and keep moving.…oh well.

  • home­s4aussies

    Paul, note activ­ity in the hous­ing mar­ket has fallen con­sid­er­ably — yesterday’s ABS release showed trans­fers were down 29% in the June 2008 qtr over June qtr 2007! Perth and Bris­bane are see­ing the sharpest falls in “mar­ket depth” — the lat­ter recorded a fall of 44% !! (My fig­ures show the fall in activ­ity quick­ened in the Sept 08 qtr in Bris­bane with the above com­par­i­son show­ing a fall of 70%).

    Like all bub­bles, the hous­ing mar­ket was pro­pelled by emo­tion (sen­ti­ment). In an ear­lier thread I laid out that emo­tional back­drop.

    The point is, and this ties in with Steve’s lat­est debt watch, that sen­ti­ment has changed — mar­ket par­tic­i­pants had a gnor­ing feel­ing that this was all too good to be true, and price falls in other coun­tries con­firmed that, and they knew that their debt build up was unsus­tain­able.

    (And note, that gnor­ing feel­ing was sub­stan­ti­ated by com­ments of the “fis­cally con­ser­v­a­tive” Rudd Gov­ern­ment in their first few months in office about improv­ing the sav­ings rate, etc — remem­ber the First Home Saver’s Accounts (which are off lim­its for 4 years) — don’t hear much about them now do we? It’s “buy now [at bub­ble prices] to save the coun­try”)

    So, all of sud­den, every­body has recog­nised the ele­phant in the room — buy­ing a house costs 2–3 times what it costs to rent it. TEMPORARY inter­est rate cuts, and a bit of cash don’t change the equa­tion much ($7K isn’t much com­pared with price falls of $50K, $100K, even $150K).

    When the herd decides to stop ignor­ing it and look into the elephant’s eyes, there’s not much that any­body can do!

  • ueber­baer

    A great def­i­n­i­tion of deriv­a­tives from the auto­matic earth site:

    Ilargi writes: “It may well be wise, just so every­one gets a clearer pic­ture of what we are talk­ing about, to stop refer­ring to all this paper as “assets” or “invest­ments”. In this case, these are mis­lead­ing terms. An asset is some­thing that exists in the real world. A deriv­a­tive, on the other hand, can best be com­pared to the paper slip you receive at the race­track when you place a bet on a horse. That paper slip doesn’t buy you a part of the horse, it buys you the chance of win­ning an X amount of money if the horse wins the race you’re bet­ting on. When that race is run, you have either won that X amount or you have lost the money the wager has cost you.”

  • pru­dentsaver

    Stats Watcher

    That video is inter­est­ing, I recall hav­ing seen it before. I think the ques­tion is, does it go par­a­bolic and just blow up, or does it really deflate?

  • al49er

    Well I have just watched Kev’s press con­fer­ence about his lat­est “eco­nomic stim­u­lus pack­age” this time said to be, (depend­ing on whose fig­ure you take worth $35 to 43 bil­lion).

    Again he pointed out how his gov­ern­ment had resolved to “act” — repeat­ing it a num­ber of times, includ­ing point­ing up the alter­na­tive which was “to do noth­ing”. Cut­ting def­i­n­i­tions!

    In this, (‘the pack­age’), every school in Aus­tralia will become “a cen­tre of eco­nomic activ­ity” with expen­di­ture on libraries, sci­ence and lan­guage blocks or Audi­to­ri­ums. (That’s pri­mary) and at the sec­ondary level upgrades and main­te­nance pro­grams to $one bil­lion,

    Then we have “free” insu­la­tion for every home in Aus­tralia cur­rently with­out it. And third (but not nec­es­sar­ily finally), adding 20,000 wel­fare homes to the gov­ern­ment stock of this accom­mo­da­tion, which fits in with their pol­icy of “get­ting the home­less of the street”.
    You know, a la Bob Hawke, “no home­less liv­ing in Aus­tralia by 2000 and some­thing”

    He was stri­dent in his rhetoric of say­ing that the gov­ern­ment will do every­thing within its power to ‘insu­late’ (no pun intended, but it should come up in a head­line some­where) Aus­tralia against the GFC which (and this is the most impor­tant part) he stressed

    Boy, am I relieved to hear that. It’s not OUR fault, we are the inno­cent vic­tims,
    we can blame some­one else — those ‘sub prime Amer­i­cans’, ‘aspi­rant Chi­nese, ‘ typ­i­cal Pom stuff-ups’, and those Ice­landers — don’t get me started. They and oth­ers are the guilty ones and as usual us poor Aussies have to “carry the can,” !

    Asked about the process for decid­ing on these pack­ages, Kev said that they had been “chug­ging away over the sum­mer” and when it ” began to become absolutely clear” we just decided to “hop to and do it”. “Our chal­lenge is to meet that chal­lenge” — breath­tak­ing.

    Ques­tioned about the ( oops , I shouldn’t say it myself ) you know, the ‘R’ word, he said his gov­ern­ment would “never haul up the white flag on the inevitabil­ity of reces­sion” – bug­ger ! I said it.

    And in respect to the gov­ern­ment run­ning those ‘D’ things – sssh – deficits over the next two or three years, he made clear that they had an “exit strat­egy” via their “doc­tri­nal state­ment” which would see them return to sur­pluses when there was “above trend growth”. (he sort of gave a def­i­n­i­tion of above 3%)

    In terms of his expec­ta­tions of the banks, he said among other things he expected them — indeed seemed to be warn­ing them, in the light of all his gov­ern­ment had done for them (you know basi­cally guar­an­teed their deposits and pretty much ensured busi­ness as usual — no doubt, includ­ing high exec­u­tive salary pack­ages) — that he expected them to be com­pas­sion­ate in terms of deal­ing with their delin­quent mort­gages “for which those peo­ple are not to blame.” 

    Gee , I feel a heel for sug­gest­ing that those peo­ple who bought $400,000, 6, 8 , mil­lion $ homes on 80% 90% or more val­u­a­tions and then used the “equity” to buy the essen­tial plasma and four-wheel drive for the Mrs, not to men­tion the Europe hol­i­day, should pos­si­bly have thought about some­thing a BIT more mod­est and maybe just an LCD, a Corolla and Tassie. 

    But there you are, THEY are ‘not to blame’ ! Great that enti­tles them to a ‘hand­out’

    Just a word of advice Kev, this all sounds fan­tas­tic and makes me much more com­fort­able that there will not be a world eco­nomic and finan­cial sys­tem melt­down.

    But I would get straight on to all those rot­ten so and so’s who caused all this, get them to say ‘ Sorry’ to us poor bloody Aussies — and we can hit them for repa­ra­tions !

    It’s just a backup plan — in case things get worse. nah that could hap­pen!

  • doju­fitz

    Per­son­ally i hope Mel­bourne real estate cor­rects to $150,000.

    Instead of $420,000.

  • Stats Watcher


    Saw your inter­view on the Today show this morn­ing – top marks in get­ting your points across – pity they spent more time on graf­fiti sen­tences.

    This inter­view on ABC was also a great sum­mary of where we are going -

    Can you please explain one thing that I find trou­bling about Rudd’s new $42 bil­lion stim­u­lus pack­age.
    If gov­ern­ment has to bor­row $42 bil­lion extra (and none of it is going into mak­ing us more pro­duc­tive long term) won’t that make Australia’s out­stand­ing Debt greater and the prob­lems of Debt Defla­tion even more severe?
    Is there an alter­na­tive to a sig­nif­i­cant one-off Debt default/abolition by spread­ing the reduc­tion over a num­ber of years? For exam­ple if the world abol­ished 50% of debt at say 5% a year for 10 years could this spread the pain out?.

  • icon­o­clast

    Suit­ablyIron­ic­Moniker, home­s4aussies & al49er,

    in total agree­ment with your cor­rect line of think­ing. There is no way that the house prices will remain where they are, the only way they are set to go is down. As Steve also points out, what the gov­ern­ment is attempt­ing to do is a drop in the ocean to what we are about to expe­ri­ence as a col­lapse in credit based growth takes hold, and with that a col­lapse in gdp, a spike in unem­ploy­ment, which will fol­low up with mort­gage defaults. This is what is about to beset the Aus­tralian mort­gage hold­ers. Export growth from the resource sec­tor, dis­guised the fun­de­men­tal weak­ness and with this now gone it is now exposed for all to see. As al49er points out all those who believed that wealth could be achieved out of some­thing like hous­ing, hav­ing been mis­led by the neolib­eral ide­ol­ogy, will soon enough have the shock of their life.

  • amash

    I was never one to accept Paul Keating’s rants and raves. But hav­ing lis­tened to him in this inter­view last night has made me actu­ally agree with him for a change. I am well and truly over the pol­i­tics of the econ­omy. KRudd blam­ing the neo-lib­er­als (never mind Carter’s and Clinton’s ven­tures into sub prime) and Turnball’s con­fused rhetoric. Nei­ther the right nor the left has the moral ground on this and one needs to be a prag­matic real­ist to be able to move for­ward with a solu­tion, ie when we find a cure for greed, we can solve this prob­lem.

    I think PK has it spot on with the micro change required to re-bal­ance the world econ­omy. But I say again, will the west­ern euro­pean (white) economies sur­cumb to a redis­tri­b­u­tion of power?
    I think he is say­ing some­thing sim­i­lar to what Steve’s debt mora­to­ria sug­gests that cred­i­tor nations and debtors nations rec­on­cile each other’s accounts.

    And please ignore the interviewer’s attempts to politi­cise the debate. He is only the next Max­ine McKew…)

  • The Out­back Ora­cle

    Firstly let me state my posi­tion re Eco­nom­ics and pol­i­tics. I thought Howard and Costello were just a pair of Eco­nomic van­dals as far as Aus­tralia and the future of its peo­ple were con­cerned. They were obvi­ously aided and abet­ted by Ken Henry. So my con­cerns here are noth­ing to do with pol­i­tics.

    Noone should tro out the old line that “noone could see this com­ingz”. It was as obvi­ous as the nose on Pinocchio’s face to any­one who cared to look. What is never obvi­ous is just which side of a cor­rupted, dis­torted, finan­cial sys­tem and econ­omy would fall first. How­ever once it started to fall, total col­lapse was inevitable. What is also never obvi­ous is how much lying, cheat­ing, and profli­gacy the Gov­ern­ment sys­tem will go to in order to try to hide its mis­takes and post­pone the con­se­quences past its watch.

    I was inter­ested in your arti­cle in the SMH Now we hsve a Gov­ern­ment cham­pi­oning the mas­sive bud­get deficits on which it is about to embark. Now, if Aus­tralia was a Cur­rent Account Sur­plus coun­try with mas­sive Inter­na­tional Reserves, such as China, Japan, Nor­way or Sin­ga­pore the pol­icy would prob­a­bly have merit. How­ever we are a nation with,at last I heard, $648 BILLION i.e.$648,000,000,000 in For­eign debts (I sup­pose the atti­tude is …“well, what the hell dif­fer­ence is a few zeroes???). How­ever that is the minor issue. The last num­bers pub­lished on For­eign own­er­ship of our Min­ing Indus­try was 68% but that was many years ago. (Funny how Gov­ern­ments stop pub­lish­ing stats that are a bit incon­ve­nient and they pre­fer the pub­lic not to know) My back of the enve­lope fig­ures indi­cate that level is now 80% for­eign own­er­ship. The Mayne report, I note, came up with a sim­i­lar num­ber from a com­pany by com­pany analy­sis. Repa­tri­a­tion of inter­est and div­i­dends is now a sig­nif­i­cant part of our Cur­rrent Account Deficit which, these past few years, has been run­ning at $50-$60 Bil­lion.. Again I note Access Eco­nom­ics esti­mat­ing the CAD will rise to $100 Bil­lion ANNUALLY

    Now, we know that all the van­dals that went before before are respon­si­ble for this par­lous sit­u­a­tion in respect to our For­eign Debt. How­ever what it surely means is that we can­not afford to run deficits (start mas­sive stim­u­lus spend­ing) at this stage. The leak­age into imports will be very high as we have lit­tle indus­try left. Some­one on these pages may have some objec­ticve indi­ca­tion of this and i’d be grate­ful to see the num­bers. In addi­tion, what money is spent here is likely to be spent with for­eign owned com­pa­nies, since they own such a large pro­por­tion of our indus­try gen­er­ally.

    Now, clearly, any­one with half a brain can see all this. One can only assume that the dan­gers of it, and the increas­ingly par­a­bolic destruc­tion of the nation’s eco­nomic her­itage, are being ignored in the name of polit­i­cal expe­di­ency or, alter­nately, a psy­cho­pathic desire to hold on to power no mat­ter who gets hurt or how much. So, clearly the gov­ern­ment has worked out some maths. Exactly what level of For­eign Debt does it regard as acceptable….$1 Tril­lion? 2? Exactly what level of for­eign Own­er­ship of our resources and Food chain does it regard as accept­able? This morning’s SMH arti­cle by Mr Chris Bowen, Deputy Trea­surer pro­mot­ing mas­sive deficits ought, on bal­ance, address these very impor­tant issues?

    What does the gov­ern­men see as being left for our chil­dren after all this or is the great mas­ter stroke to be that we are happy to be serfs in our own land?

    Again I am not inter­ested in the pol­i­tics. I am, how­ever, deeply con­cerned that per­haps our land is gov­erned by a bunch of psy­chopaths on both sides of the House. I would really love to know that this is not the case. I would like to see some­one from either side of the House explain to the Aus­tralian peo­ple the really per­ilous nature of our posi­tion. Mr. Turnbull’s role in this mess, to date, has just been a dis­grace. in this mess. There should be no polit­i­cal dis­ad­van­tage in this as the mess has been cre­ated by suc­ces­sive myopic Gov­ern­ments of all colours since about 1957. At least then the Aus­tralian peo­ple would under­stand that we all need to make sac­ri­fices to try to redeem our posi­tion and to leave some­thing of this land and its inher­i­tance for our chil­dren. Per­haps, just per­haps, we might make some progress.

    If noone gives a rats…just ignore me

  • Effit

    Two dif­fer­ent ways of look­ing at the unfold­ing Greek tragedy as some­one calls the GFC on this blog.

    1. ‘BUY AN APARTMENT, GETBMW,22606,25000849–2682,00.html?from=public_rss

    An “extra­or­di­nary” stunt involv­ing free BMWs and lux­ury sports boats helped a devel­oper defy the finan­cial cri­sis and sell $3 mil­lion of houses and apart­ments at the week­end.

    Urban Construct’s Devel­oper Sum­mer 2009 Clear­ance Sale, which started on Sat­ur­day, allows buy­ers to choose one of five incen­tives when they buy a prop­erty at Place on Brougham, North Ade­laide, and Edge­wa­ter and Marina Cove, New­port Quays.’

    They can choose from a BMW 320i, val­ued at $63,826, a Sea Ray 185 Lux­ury Sports Boat, 0 per cent finance inter­est for two years, plus stamp duty, or three years rent return, which also includes stamp duty.’

    Social ana­lyst David Chalke, ”You’ve also got to remem­ber there’s a lot of BMW deal­ers that can’t get rid of stock and the boat mar­ket has vir­tu­ally evap­o­rated in the past year, so it’s also a good ini­tia­tive for them too.”’

    2. COMMSEC SAYS MANY WORKERS WON’T FEEL FINANCIAL CRISIS,22606,25001096–2682,00.html?from=public_rss

    Inter­est rates are tipped to fall to the low­est lev­els in more than 40 years, but that will make lit­tle dif­fer­ence to a large num­ber of Aus­tralians who will cruise through the finan­cial cri­sis. For a sec­tion of work­ers who are expe­ri­enc­ing falling petrol prices, hefty dis­counts in shops and liv­ing costs not ris­ing as quickly as usual, they’re won­der­ing what all the fuss is about, says econ­o­mist Craig James of Comm­Sec.

    For Gen-Y type staff, they are just scratch­ing their heads to work out how the global finan­cial cri­sis is really impact­ing them,” he says. “If they’re not pay­ing off a home loan, if they haven’t got sub­stan­tial share mar­ket invest­ments but they’re in secure employ­ment, then they’re prob­a­bly not see­ing a great impact. If any­thing it’s a pos­i­tive. A lot of peo­ple are prob­a­bly look­ing at the sit­u­a­tion say­ing if this is what a reces­sion looks like, then we should have more of them.”

    Young work­ers who fit into this cat­e­gory are in a posi­tion to come out bet­ter than before, Mari­nis Finan­cial Group’s Theo Mari­nis says. “Pretty much any­one who can main­tain their job and their income,” he said. Mr Mari­nis said a large per­cent­age of the pop­u­la­tion were “bliss­fully unaware” of dire eco­nomic pre­dic­tions for the year ahead. “Most pun­ters aren’t really aware of what’s going on, and maybe that’s a good thing.” He says a boost to the first home own­ers grant and the Government’s attempts to encour­age spend­ing mean more young peo­ple have an oppor­tu­nity to enter the prop­erty mar­ket.
    Mr Mari­nis says the gloom is never as bad as it’s made out to be. Even if employ­ment hits 12 per cent, it still means more than 80 per cent of the work­force is employed. 

    It’s the minor­ity of the pop­u­la­tion that will get hurt.”

  • The Out­back Ora­cle

    It always bloody is the minor­ity who get hurt. Small busi­ness, the self funded retirees who have been pru­dent, farm­ers. We just rip off the same few each time. How­ever i sus­pect this time we have gone too far. If for­eign fund­ing of our prof­li­gate ways dries up, every­one is going to get severely shafted!!! Some will be worse of than oth­ers of course but it could be a very nasty time.
    That is the very rea­son why it is impor­tant to get the whole truth out there so EVERYONE under­stans there must be sac­ri­fices and maybe be will­ing to make them.

  • icon­o­clast

    Craig James is an idiot

  • ueber­baer

    Hi Stats Watcher, 

    thanks for post­ing the link to the videos of expo­nen­tial func­tions another eye-opener for me.

  • Fred

    Aren’t there two there two kinds of Gov­ern­ment debt, wasted money and a good invest­ment? If a gov­ern­ment “just printed money” to say build a house then the debt that this spend­ing cre­ates is rep­re­sented by money in the pock­ets of the builders and sup­pli­ers that built it. If the house is unrentable or can’t be sold, then the fact that it can’t be sold makes the spend­ing to build it infla­tion­ary, oth­er­wise, it could be sold and the debt is extin­guished = no infla­tion and an asset in the econ­omy. So I couldn’t see why Rudd said that the stim­u­la­tion mea­sures had to be “paid back” unless he was plan­ning to waste the money.

  • Tres­sob

    Hi StatsWatcher
    Aus­tralian stock mar­ket falls:

    Jan 1973 to Sept 1974 — fall of 59.3%
    12 month post low recov­ery 51%

    Sep 1987 — Nov 1987 — fall of 50.1%
    12 month post low recov­ery 35%

    While the num­bers are bad — there is always light at the end of the tun­nel — even though it might only be the express train! 😉

    US falls:
    Jan 1973 — Octo­ber 1974 — fall of 48.2%
    12 month post low recov­ery 38%

    Mar 2000 — Oct 2002 — fal of 49.1%
    12 month post low recov­ery 34%

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