University of Texas Economics Professor James Galbraith is a son of the great US Institutional economist John Kenneth Galbraith, and a leading non-orthodox economist in his own right. He has developed highly innovative methods to measure economic inequality that are well documented here; he is a strident critic of conventional economics; and he has been as active in the USA as an analyst of and commentator on this financial crisis as I have in Australia. His many interviews on the topic are linked from this site.
Galbraith describes himself in this interview on Yahoo Finance’s Tech Ticker as a “financial ambulance chaser”, and someone who did see this crisis coming–unlike the vast majority of the economics professsion, who–like Australia’s own RBA (central bank) Governor Glenn Stevens–not only did not see this crisis coming, but didn’t know anyone else who did.
That’s because they have been raised solely within the neoclassical approach to economics, which has dominated the academic discipline of economics since the mid-1970s. They have been trained to uncritically believe in models of the economy based on the fantasies of hyper-rational individuals (who can predict the future), markets that are always in equilibrium, and a world in which money is simply a veil over barter. They don’t listen to professional economists like myself and James who reject this entire philosophy. By and large, they don’t even acknowledge that we exist.
One excellent question that was put to James by Henry Blodget is worth quoting in its entirety. Blodget quite justifiably expressed the belief that in their training economists look at history–a statement that shows he didn’t himself do an economics degree, because one of the first subjects that neoclassical economists eliminated to make way for their obsessions with “microeconomics” and “econometrics” was economic history:
Blodget: But obviously in training economists, especially academics who go through an incredible period where they’re learning and studying history, and you look back over history where you’ve had many of these complete crashes that were unforeseen at the time. How does academia deal with that? Is the story always told that “Oh yes, but we were stupid and unsophisticated then, and now we’re smart and therefore we’ll see it”? How do people explain that?
James’s reply was:
Galbraith: That’s an excellent question, but the reality is that training in economics does not involve coming to grips with history. Economic history is barely taught in graduate economics departments, and the history of economic thought isn’t taught at all. So figures that have been fundamental to understanding phenomena like the Great Depression–or for that matter the Great Crash–are simply not in the curriculum.
Keynes, who taught my father John Kenneth Galbraith–who understood the Great Depression as well as any figure in the 20th century–… you won’t find them on the reading lists. That is in some sense the shocking commentary on the intellectual direction that the profession has taken.
There’s much more worth listening to in this interview. There is, also, hope. The fact that serious intellectuals who are critical of neoclassical economics are now being listened to by the media and the markets–though not yet governments–is a sign that, possibly, the days of the delusional neoclassical approach to economics are coming to a close.
Unfortunately, it has taken a serious economic crisis–possibly the most serious in history–to bring that delusion to its knees. But in the meantime, people trained in that delusion are still in control of economic policy, and are charged with helping overcome a problem they did not foresee, and still do not understand.






December 11th, 2008 at 10:26 am
I agree entirely. (Believe it or not I added a comment, making almost exactly the same point that Galbraith makes, to the previous post, but the system signed out for some reason, so it was lost…grrr)
I could never understand how we are to comprehend real-world economic processes within real-world social systems, without looking at the ACTUAL history and the ACTUAL institutional structure of the given society.
I’m not against econometric modeling, but I simply cannot see how it is possible to describe a specific economic system only by abstract models, without paying attention to institutional and sociological detail.
The completely ahistoric and asocial character of (mainstream) economics has always struck me as its most serious shortcoming. IMHO there’s just no way of understanding a real-world economy by exclusively building on “individualistic” assumptions. (Especially, if these assumptions seem to be inconsistent with reality).
So, if economics were indeed to be “reformed”, I believe more economic history and more (macro-level) institutional studies would be desperately needed.
As for “people trained in that delusion are still in control of economic policy” you should come to eastern Europe – here, the situation is much worse…stone-age neoliberals have really set up a complete monopoly in economic thinking, which has not been shaken at all by the present crisis.
A case in point: the restrictive IMF-package was hailed uniformly by economists, who stated that historically IMF-packages have been very successful.
You really cannot get lower than that, as far as historical illiteracy is concerned.
December 11th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Melissa, from her PublicProperty blog at the Courier Mail, wrote:
“Good to see the increased first home buyer’s grant and drops in interest rates may finally be making a difference to the number of punters making the leap into their first mortgage.” … “152per cent increase in the loans to first timers in the past three months…. ….It is probably more a case of first timers needing to borrow a higher portion of the purchase price than those who have been in the market before.”
I replied to her blog:
“I honestly get similar feelings of dred and helplessness hearing of people leap into suicide when I hear of people leaping into their first mortgage.. especially if data shows the mortgages are even higher.
I want to reach out to them.. help them understand that it doesn’t matter if prices go up or sideways, current prices are so high and returns so miniscule, they are only putting themselves into great risk and at best a painful 30year debt induced nightmare.”
Many people irrationally believe the worst has hit us, that house prices won’t be affected, that debt will comfortably stabilise.
Thanks Steve, for continuing to fight against delusion, deception and the just plain dumb.
December 11th, 2008 at 11:13 am
This post left me all nostalgic – Economic History was what I was good at back at University… in fact I was still at Melbourne Uni when they shut down the Economic History department and replaced it with bloody management theorists. Still, it’s not like anyone’s ever accused the Melbourne Uni’s Economics faculty of thinking outside the box…
December 11th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Bernanke’s explanation of the Great Depression was that the Federal Reserve got it wrong by raising interest rates too high, not that they got debt wrong. Maybe now that they are getting it wrong again maybe they will realise that if debt is too high it is impossible to do anything about it, other than to lessen slightly the recession.
December 11th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I thought “Economic History” as an undergrad was very interesting. I also took a subject called “Japanese Economy and Economic Policy”. I studied that subject in 1989. What a load of bunk that was.
Don’t forget there is always several interpretations of history. History will get this crisis wrong, just like history still misrepresents the causes and cures of the Great Depression.
December 11th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Stitchy,
I continue to be amazed at 2 things;
1) The outright lies and toxic marketing being perpetrated on gullible youngsters drawing them into a cliff diving property market, the epitome of which is the “PM’s spend it all now” theme.
2) The blatant stupidity of many new homebuyers at present believing this kind of ridiculous deceipt.
“”Property prices are down in general between 10 per cent and 20 per cent and I believe they could fall a further 5 per cent,” says chief executive of McGrath Estate Agents in Sydney, John McGrath.”
“”On balance, we see average house prices falling another 10 to 15 per cent over the year ahead,” Shane Oliver (Cheif Economist AMP)says.
“MEDIAN house prices in Brisbane have dropped nearly 30 per cent over the past three months, but the Real Estate Institute of Queensland has told homeowners not to panic.”
Just a few of the under reported data/comments being subtly ignored by the headline writers.
The property crisis is here- now. It’s arrived. What remains is to count up the casulaties.
December 11th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
But surely economics departments turn out precisely the graduates that are needed to create and perpetuate the illusions on which our financial systems have been based for the past decades?
This is simply a case of universities responding to market forces. It’s where the grants are, where the jobs are and where the money goes.
They have been kicking goals. If you want different results, you have to move the goalposts.
December 11th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
No Dyork,
It’s not market driven. Trust me on this–academic economists, and neoclassical ones in particular, are the least market-driven people you could hope (or not hope!) to meet.
They are also not consciously ideological–indeed many of them would profess to “progressive” or even “left” views on social issues.
They are instead driven by a vision of a perfectly functioning system that seems to suck them in during their teens (I speak from experience), and from then on most of them (here I am obviously an exception!) spend their days trying to refine that vision.
They also honestly believe that what they are doing–arguing against monopolies and unions, promoting the view that the market is self-equilibrating, pushing for deregulation–will make society a better place.
Ironically, rather than being driven by self-interest, they are amongst the least self-interested people I have ever met.
If that were all there were to them, they would be a laudable bunch. But because their vision of how the world operates is manifestly flawed, their attempts to make the real world work better actually make it work far more poorly than it would without their intervention.
In this they have more in common with religious zealots than scientists. I doubt that any religious fanatic believes he/she is doing something evil when, for example, they stone an adulterer to death–or crash a plane into a large building for instance.
Ditto an economist who fervently believes that the financial system should be deregulated. They don’t do it because that’s what the market demands–though in that world market spivs do indeed make a fortune (for a while). They do it because they selflessly believe it will make the world a better place.
Delusion is a far more powerful force for human harm than self-interest.
December 11th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Melissa is a “serial investor and renovator” so what would you expect. She’s little more than cheerleader for the property market.
You’d expect better from economists however…
- John Edwards, chief economist HSBC, after today’s unemployment figures were released.
Edwards is delusional. God knows how these people keep their jobs. Australia has Buckley’s and none chance of avoiding recession through 2009.
Australians are partying on the beach while the economic tsunami rolls in from the US via China.
December 11th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Steve, most academic economists (I’ve been as close as I want to an economics department) seem to be driven by the self-interest of being right, right being that everyone else agrees with them and implements their schemes. And when they don’t work they claim that it was some other cause rather than their particular theory of economics being wrong.
December 11th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Now that’s an interpretation of economists that I can’t fault Ken!
December 11th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
GSM, I have been trying to get accurate up to date info on Australian home prices.
Could you please provide the reference or link to your quote below. A 30% price fall in only 3 months is quite phenomenal!
“MEDIAN house prices in Brisbane have dropped nearly 30 per cent over the past three months, but the Real Estate Institute of Queensland has told homeowners not to panic.”
Sure you didnt mean 30% fall in home sales?
December 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Thanks steve for the remarks above,I think your words”… religious zealots” is very appropriate!The evil bit though, has been that at the end of the ‘economic rationalist’s decade’ we poor working Australians have to suffer, without even the decency for the establishment(or media) to alocate blame for the suffering imposed, yes imposed, by these “zealots”!
December 11th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Latvia defends economist’s arrest
Steve Keen you have been warned
December 11th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
moonatic here is the link on the 30% house price drop article.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/dont-panic-says-institute/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html
- Ernie.
December 11th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Moonatic,
Free or public data in simple form is not easy to find. Snippets by interetsed groups are realeased along with lot’s of spin.
House prices here seeem to be tracking a faster decline than the UK or US over comparitive time frames. Steve has posted info here from to time which is invaluable. It looks like we are around 12 mths behind the US and 6-9 mths behind the UK.
Ernie’s link above is the one I referred to but at least once a week I do a google trawl to find what makes print. In the last month or so the data seems to be deteriorating markedly.
“PROPERTY prices in Surfers Paradise have collapsed by more than 45 per cent as the credit crunch continues to hit the Queensland housing market.
Surfers Paradise recorded a fall of 45.1 per cent in the latest Real Estate Institute of Queensland survey, while other Gold Coast suburbs such as Burleigh Heads (31.1 per cent) and Runaway Bay (30.3 per cent) also fared badly.
The survey shows the median house price on the Gold Coast fell 4.8 per cent to $466,500 over the September quarter.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24772911-952,00.html
Burleigh and Runaway bay have some premium neighbourhoods.
I really hope someone could start a blog like Calculated Risk for here in Australia. The honest coverage of RE and the mortgage biz on CR is first class.
December 12th, 2008 at 3:11 am
[...] How the ‘Experts’ Missed the Crash: Philosophical Flaws, No Sense of History | Steve Keen’… That’s because they [nearly all mainstream economists] have been raised solely within the neoclassical approach to economics, which has dominated the academic discipline of economics since the mid-1970s. They have been trained to uncritically believe in models of the economy based on the fantasies of hyper-rational individuals (who can predict the future), markets that are always in equilibrium, and a world in which money is simply a veil over barter. They don’t listen to professional economists like myself and James Galbraith who reject this entire philosophy. By and large, they don’t even acknowledge that we exist….James’s reply [in the interview] was: [...]
December 12th, 2008 at 4:50 am
Whoops…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-households-pay-down-debts/story.aspx?guid={823A97D3-ECA6-4887-A70B-9425366E7473}&print=true&dist=printMidSection
U.S. households pay down debts for first time
Net worth plunges at 18% annualized rate in third quarter, Fed data show
Assets of households dropped by $2.7 trillion, while liabilities increased by $128 billion.
Holdings in real estate fell by $647 billion. Direct holdings in corporate equities fell by $922 billion, while holdings in mutual funds fell by $423 billion. Life-insurance and pension reserves also declined, down by $653 billion.
December 12th, 2008 at 5:01 am
GSM – I’d like to second that.
I live here in Blighty (comming home soon!) and it is scary how the press are almost word for word copying.
The UK is about 12 – 18 months behind California. It is VERY important to make this distinction though! Not all US cities had housing bubbles. They were exculsively the domain of cities with ’smart growth’ urban planning laws. See Demographia’s website (bit of googling) to see what I mean.
Have a look at the Case Schiller index (broken down by market) and the falls match 1 for 1 to the Demographia report! If THAT’s not a smoking gun then I don’t know what is… Be very interested to hear your take as an economist on Hugh’s work Steve (future topic perhaps?)
My personal heresy is that the ’smart growth’ planning laws by slowing land release increased inelasticity in the supply responce of the construction sector. As a result, a small runnup in demand (mining boom here, financials in UK etc) triggered capital gains over several years instead of having new houses built 9 months after the initial demand increase. The result was a ‘trend’ that then built into a self fulfilling mania – fuelled by debt and hey presto – bust. Note in Houston where the ‘trend’ never got started (they were able to just build more housing – growing from 2 million to 5 million in a decade and cutting travel time to boot!) there has been very little in the way of falls (and presumably bad debts). I think the key to prevent the mania is to prevent the initial trend that people latch on to and think they’ll ‘go for ever’. I suspect if you include a time sensitive variable in your Ponzi model it’ll support this (ie the longer a trend has been running, the more confident people get, hence the more likely they’ll be to jump in and reinforce the trend). This paper describes a similar sort of effect (self reinforcing belief) http://www.wallis.rochester.edu/conference11/mediabias.pdf – reckon the math approach might be of use to Ponzi modeling… Be interested in your thoughts Steve.
Anyhoo – the current press in Aus is almost word for word The Times from April this year.
Since we had the biggest bubble (median house to median income – except for California) I think it follows that we are in for one of the biggest busts…
From a purely statistical point of view you’ve gotta love the guy’s explanation of the falling median – ‘a lot of activity at the lower end of the market…’!!! Hahahahaha!
December 12th, 2008 at 11:05 am
GSM,
Thankyou for your reply.
Falls of such magnitude dont seem to get much publicity here in victoria.
Yes it does seem Australia is lagging the US by about 12 months – in all aspects of this meltdown.
Economists predicting that we will avoid recession make me laugh. Fourth quarter results released next year will show negative growth, and 2009 is going to be worse. Not sure if our figures are revised like the US, if so we probably entered recession mid year.
0.1% growth for 3rd Quarter doesnt leave much room.
Look out if China enters recession next year or even goes close. That may be an idication of how severe our own recession will be.
On unemployment – yesterdays figures dont seem that bad, however US unemployment has really escalated in last three months. What does that suggest for our future?
December 12th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
It is not just in academic economics where one particular paradigm holds sway, meaning – effectively – that it is almost impossible to publish any counter opinion.
Many in this forum would not be aware for example that there is a considerable body of scientists (including Nobel prize winners) that does not believe that HIV has anything to do with AIDS.
Money and funding play a big part of course, and 2 years ago I was in an NHMRC panel where one panelist joked about having rejected Marshall and Warren’s grant application to study Helicobacter pylori as a cause of gastric ulcers because it didn’t fit the consensus (or the drug money interests) of the time.[This work went on to win a Nobel.]
However, the history of science attests to the big paradigm shifts that can occur quite rapidly, particularly with changes in economic circumstances. So I feel quite confident that by the end of this crisis your work, Steve, and others like it will be vindicated and a new paradigm will force the agenda for the next 60 years.
December 12th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Bloomberg: Bernard Madoff arrested for running $50 billion Ponzi scheme
December 12th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Those posting predominantly about the housing market may be interested to read about some recent events which I have been covering in the blogs section of my website (www.geocities.com/homes4aussies).
The skinny is this – as some posters have mentioned above, the REIQ and Melissa Ketchell have been particularly active over the last week.
Partly because last weekend the house price data for Queensland were published by the Courier Mail. I detected an error in the presentation of those data – only for Brisbane, the table heading indicated the annual data were up to June instead of September. The quarterly data were for September and they showed major falls in prices in some suburbs over the earlier quarter – but all suburbs showed positive annual growth (including some that fell over the quarter but showed strong annual growth).
For example, the data for Belmont showed – Median Sep 08 QTR $439,000 – Median 12 months Jun 07 $507,000 – Median 12 months Jun 08 $552,000 – Change over 1 yr 8.9%. (But note the September QTR 08 figure is actually 14% below the Median 12 months Jun 07 figure)
Peter McGrath (REIQ) was quoted as telling home owners to take more notice of the annual data than the quarterly, and assured people that it is unlikely that anybody has lost money.
Now I thought the table was split – 2 columns of (QTRly) September data, and 3 of (annual) June data mainly because for many suburbs the September QTR median was below or only very slightly above the median 12 months ending “Jun” 07.
However, after placing a call to the Courier Mail realestate editor, I was contacted by somebody from the REIQ to explain the error – I was told it was a typo, that the annual data were actually ending September. When I said that the data did not appear to make sense, then, they said something that I suspected – that the number of sales in the September quarter were so low that they had little impact on the annual data.
I then said that I track a postcode of Brisbane where recorded sales of free standing houses had decreased 70% in the month of August 08 (over August 07), and 90% in September 08!! That amounts to just 8 sales in Sept!!!This person was not surprised.
I then called the Department of Natural Resources and Water, the body charged with collating these data for Queensland. The person I spoke to was tight lipped about the number of sales, but confirmed that they were very quiet so are able to complete collation within 4 weeks of the sale (rather than 8 weeks when it was busy).
So far, 14 sales for the month of October have been recorded for this postcode that I track – so perhaps Melissa Ketchell might like to report a 75% bounce in sales! But when you tell the whole story, this is in a postcode that averaged 77 sales a month through 2007.
An interesting postscript – looks like I am persona non grata on Melissa’s blog site. A shame because I think it’s now more important than ever to blog on the high traffic sites to attempt to get the truth out to the public (through their censorship).
December 12th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I didn’t notice that Ernie had posted a link to one of the articles to which I was referring.
Note this comment by Mr McGrath – “For example, worst performer Northgate’s annual media property prices rose by 18.5 per cent, meaning homeowners there were unlikely to have lost money.”
But note that for Northgate the Median Sep QTR 08 figure is $415,000, 1.2% BELOW the Median 12 months Sep 07 figure and 16.5% below the Median 12 months Sep 08 figure!
Of course these quarterly data are going to be incredibly volatile at the suburb level because of the extremely low level of sales (note that the postcode I mentioned above – with only 8 sales in September – covers several suburbs with a total of 12,000 free standing houses!)
But seems to me that the REIQ would rather “wear” a public perception of falling house prices rather than one that buyers have almost completely dried up!
So, in regards to mentioning 45% drops, I can’t help but think that has the aim of moving vendor and buyer expectations closer – on the one hand to browbeat buyers into dropping their asking prices to more realistic levels, and to get more more buyers out looking (especially the less naive who have been sitting on cash, and can actually obtain credit, who are waiting for price declines) to produce at least some competitive tension at open houses and auctions. Afterall, realestate agents need turnover to survive.
All of this adds further weight to Steve’s view on the Australian economy and house prices. With so few buyers in the market, and with the economy looking weaker with each day that passes, I expect house price falls to accelerate.
December 12th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
. . . because their vision of how the world operates is manifestly flawed, their attempts to make the real world work better actually make it work far more poorly than it would without their intervention.
This accurate insight is reminiscent of Thomas Sowell whose books “Is Reality Optional?” and “A Conflict of Visions” present the case that too many of today’s elites who seek to run things from the top have little practical experience. It is not just academics, but foundation heads, professional politicians, and the activists in special interest and philanthropic groups that bring a flawed vision to national policy.
I believe that application of the case method would bring a semblance of reality to the student in economics as well as in most humanity courses. Business and law schools use actual past experience via case studies to inform students of the variations of problems and solutions that have plagued decision-makers in the past.
Because economies represent simply the sum of individual human decisions and actions, mathematical formulas and abstract theories cannot account for them nor predict them. Mises great book “Human Action” places economics on a foundation of individuals–everything depends on the initiative, energy, and whims of the masses of involved participants. As Julian Simon wrote, the most valuable natural resource of a nation is its people.
My survey of history’s “best” case studies indicates that the few locales where prosperity became widely dispersed were in isolated up-start communities where regulation by aristocracies and bureaucracies was very limited. The people were allowed to exercise their economic freedom to build successful economies. But, once these communities became wealthy, new elites emerged–but their vision of how the world worked was uninformed and flawed. Nevertheless, they usually managed to displace the ordinary souls who had built the nation. Naturally, once in power, their efforts to make the nation “even Better” usually resulted in the onset of Decline.
December 12th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
A typo in my earlier comment – I meant to say “on the one hand to browbeat SELLERS into dropping their asking prices to more realistic levels”
The other thing worth raising at this time is that I believe there are indications from recent federal Government policy actions that suggests we do indeed have a developing new building overhang (contrary to the propaganda blitz).
1) The more generous treatment of newly built houses in the FHOB – supposedly to increase supply and stimulate more construction – but notice it does not stipulate (to my knowledge) that the dwelling should NOT have been already constructed or under construction when the policy was announced on 14 October.
2) The National Rental Affordability Scheme was finally enacted last week. The minister was quoted as saying families will be able to move in by Xmas. How could they move in if the funding was only just beginning to flow? Answer – and confirmed by speaking to someone involved – because it’s already built, they’re taking some supply off developers and builders!
Now, I am all for struggling families getting affordable rental accommodation – it is my concern especially for these families that is driving my efforts to inform people about this housing bubble – but I’m a little tired of the spin and outright misinformation being fed to the public while behind the scenes the government is trying to cover up all of the weaknesses in the market.
People deserve to know the truth!
And it is hardly surprising that excess supply of new housing would be building up when in some regions sales of established houses have dropped 90% !!!
December 12th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Copied from your report homes4aussies ,
“Note, organisations that benefit from strong realestate markets include those in the realestate industry,
property wealth advising and consultation industries, building and construction industries, and finance
including mortgage broking and banking industries. Moreover, it is important to note that even state
governments have become particularly dependent on increased taxes from increased property prices –
property tax revenue increased 72% in 5 years! (6).”
One of the late major contributors to the US mega RE bubble was the massive propaganda campaign mounted by their Mainstream media (MSM) and Govt against consumers to keep diving into the debt pool. They unwittingly obliged until the BUST was so pervasive it was too late- the overwhelming carnage had arrived.
My sense is that is what we are witnessing right now in Australia. To speak against this propaganda makes you almost a social pariah.
December 12th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
GSM, I really don’t see your point, or your reason for describing me in that way.
I agree with this – “They unwittingly obliged until the BUST was so pervasive it was too late- the overwhelming carnage had arrived. My sense is that is what we are witnessing right now in Australia.”
What I am trying to do is inform people of the reality so as few people as possible “unwittingly oblige”, joining the bubble at this very late stage and getting crunched by it’s inevitable popping!
It is because I feel very much a part of my community, and care very deeply for it, that I speak up. But I also believe that as well as hardship, a lot of good will come from the current recession (or depression). See this video to see what I’m about – http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=vKru2-Mm_PE
December 12th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
homes4aussies said,
Sorry, but I believe you have misunderstood me. I was trying to say I fully agree with your premise and having now looked breifly at your website (which i will view in depth in due course) will forward it to freinds and family – at great peril!!
I personally think you are doing an oustanding job.
I have been very focussed on watching the US housing devastation unfold and have been looking for a resource tracking this financial trainwreck in Australia.
The humble message I was trying to send out in my earlier post , gained from watching the US experience , was:
Do not trust mainstream media or the Govt to spell out the truth to you. We will only hear spin and BS from those sources.
December 12th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
http://business.theage.com.au/business/time-bomb-for-home-buyers-20081211-6ws6.html
‘Time bomb for home buyers’
‘ABOUT 300,000 Australian households could face “negative equity” next year — owing more money to lenders than their house is worth — if prices fall by 10 per cent as predicted.
Nicole Rich of the Consumer Action Law Centre said impending house price falls meant lenders should be discouraged from offering products that allowed people to “use their home like an ATM”.
“It’s not that they just make redraw available, they promote it,” Ms Rich said. “Some people are going to take advantage of the maximum 90 per cent redraw when they’re in difficulty.
“So by its nature it’s a product that appeals to people that are struggling a bit.”
While the Commonwealth Bank has removed its 100 per cent home loan, NAB will still lend 100 per cent of the purchase price of a property, less about 3 per cent mortgage insurance, to desirable borrowers.
Other borrowers with “equity loans” can draw on up to 90 per cent of the value of their home.’
December 12th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
GSM, apologies for misunderstanding.
December 12th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
I have been reading this blog and some of the comments on here for only a few weeks now. I started searching because I thought that surely “I cannot be the only one who can see what is really happening.” How wonderful it is to find that there is a whole community of sensible people out there.
I have no training in economics. I run a small business selling shutters and secutity screens to home owners.
For several years now I have been alarmed at the levels of borrowing I have been seeing first hand in the market. Young professional couples who buy a house for $900k and then spend $50k on shutters. You don’t buy 50 grand worth of shutters by saving a little from your pay each week.
I have upset a few dinner parties in the last couple years by telling all assembled that a big drop in house prices was a mathematical certainty. People didn’t and largely still don’t beleive it can happen here and they certainly don’t want to hear it.
Steve, I love your work. I have been back reading your posts and links.
A word of caution though if I may be so bold…..
Nobody likes a smart arse. I can appreciate that after years in the wilderness fighting the tide of stupidity you now feel rightly vindicated and the urge to shout “I told you so!” is very powerful. However good it feels though it doesn’t help you acheive your goals in the long run.
You have a lot to contribute to the world of economics and the broader community but your ideas will never be accepted if most of the stakeholders in the game hate your guts. A little humility goes a long way.
You might like to read ‘How Make Friends and Influence People’- it’s a cliche but it’s a classic and has helped me.
Keep up the good work.
December 13th, 2008 at 12:27 am
moonatic
China is already in the middle of a huge smash. There is definitely some sort of conspiracy of silence here in MSM in Aus. When i was there in late october/early November
Real estate prices had fallen 30% right across China in just one month. Factory workers were losing 5 years wages in one month!
In Guangdong province a factory emoloying 6000 workers closed while we were there. We flew to Xiamen where a factory employing 4000 workes closed while we were there.
Factories were closing bankrupt everywhere
Factories who by now would have reasonably full order books for 2009 had NIL orders..nada…none!
The Canton Fair, which is their big rtrade generator was characterised by poor attendance. At the third session there was virtually noone there. Congregation areas where normally 500 people might be gathered…I’d count maybe 25-35. Our suppliers were telling us there was noone there from anywhere!
It’s put around that China has all this infrastructure spending they have announced. Noone seems able to determine of what was announced, what was already in process. in addition infrastructure builing in China is so massive it is difficult to see how they will acclerate it further.
Furhter you cannot simply take millions of workers working in export factories and send them to build infrastructure…even in China.
I hope the info helps. You sure don’t hear it from the media.
Cheers
December 13th, 2008 at 3:26 am
Thanks outback oracle,
MSM is so full of BS. Worse thing is many sheeple believe their articles word for word.
Any attempts by journalists/analysts to provide reasonable and logical aguements as to how bad things may get are labelled as fear mongerers.
By the way, on Rudd – nice one on promoting the great australian dream. You’ve given the green light and full encouragement for young people/couples to enter into a falling housing market. Whats going to happen one or two years down the track when their in over their heads, one of them has reduced hours or is unemployed, they end up getting foreclosed and suffer the long term financial pain and constraints of bankruptcy. Well done. Of course you could always give them a bailout.
December 13th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Dear Icarus,
Point taken. I do try to restrain myself on the “I told you so” front, and just stick to the analysis, but occasionally when I see statements like Glenn Stevens’ that inspired the previous post–that he “knew of no one who predicted this course of events”–I can’t help myself.
This is not a time for shadenfreude, as Brett from Homes for Aussies said so poignantly on his recent YouTube video. Nor is it a time for vindictiveness–generally I go out of my way to emphasise that the economists whose delusional theories contributed to this crisis had the best of intentions themselves.
But every now and then, one of them says something that I simply can’t pass up.
And yes occasionally I overdo it on the “I saw this coming ages ago” front. The fact that this is true is no compensation then to those whose noses are put out of joint by it.
One of my favourites “scenes” in the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” involves the graduate student who, via a stroke of genius, managed to create an “Infinite Improbability Drive” out of thin air.
Just as he is about to receive the Galactic Nobel Prize for Physics, he is lynched by an angry crowd of physicists who have suddenly realised “that what they really can’t stand is a smartarse”.
December 13th, 2008 at 7:31 am
On the topic of the MSM (mainstream media), while there are elements there that receive warranted opprobrium from members of this blog, there are also many journalists who were themselves as incredulous about the mantra coming from some of their colleagues about eternal good times, ever rising property markets, etc.
As individuals, they themselves were often feeling the burden of excessive mortgage debt, and as journalists, they were often reporting the initial brush-fires of the downturn–rising evictions in Campbelltown; shonky practices by mortgage brokers; court cases like Permanent Mortgages vs Cooks that first alerted me to the empirical magnitude of the crisis (the first time I had taken a close look at the empirical data on debt for Australia was while doing the research for my Expert Witness case–beforehand I had focused only on the USA).
Don’t forget either that the MSM has given a huge run to my arguments–indeed, that’s what Gerard Henderson was wingeing about in his remarkable piece on me in the SMH features pages a couple of months ago.
So the MSM is a mixed bag. Yes there are career spruikers in it, and yes there will be editorials like those in The Australian, etc. But there is also the classic “4th Estate” behaviour sitting within it. Certainly if I had to compare how the economics profession, the government and media have served us during this crisis, the media would come out best.
December 13th, 2008 at 9:46 am
moonatic and Outback Oracle:
CR reports that ISI’s Ed Hyman is now forecasting negative Q4 GDP in China. That would have been unthinkable a few months ago.
I agree that the MSM in Australia is either in denial about China, or is deliberately putting a positive spin on China so as not to frighten the punters. Alan Kohler gets it though: China Cracks
December 13th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Great story from Michael Stutchbury in The Oz today:
Our China crisis.
The penny has dropped for Michael.
December 13th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
It will be interesting to see if this deflation scare materialize. The last time deflation was so hot was in 1998-1999 when The Economist was calling for 5 dollar oil, and Krugman was writing his “return to depression economics, and even Gary Schilling and his “deflation book”, coming out and calling for lower commodity prices when commodities was at a 200 year inflation adjusted low. Gary actually managed to time the bottom of commodity prices with his book perfectly. The second round was in 2003-2004, but that was a minor deflation scare compared to 1998. Now it’s the third round of the deflation scare. The people are crying wolf for the third time. So that makes it kind of interesting:)
December 13th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Steve you have reminded me how much I love the Hitchhikers Guide- I will get it out and reread it
December 13th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Moonatic
You commented that the unemployment figures do not “seem so bad”. You should remember that the method used to determine this is a total farce with one hours work per fortnight being considered as full employment. The actual employment has already fallen much more than indicated as part time employees are having their hours reduced.
As the problem escalates the unemployment figures created by the ABS will become more and more useless and irelevant.
During the great depression unemployment was calculated by trade unions and, as best I can discover was done on an hours lost basis. For example if someone got 4 hours per week work on the Hungry Mile he would be considered as ~10% employed ~90%unemployed. By the ABS rekoning of today he would be 100% “employed”.
The GDP figures are also dodgy so to place much credibility on 0.1% of “growth” is another bad joke.
It’s all like Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, with one exception, the epsilon minus’s not the alphas are in charge. They do look different but they must be cloned because they all sing the same neo classical economic nonsense tune.
December 14th, 2008 at 6:55 am
On that point Brightspark, check out the unemployment and underemployment figures maintained by CofFEE (the Centre of Full Employment and Equity) in Newcastle:
http://e1.newcastle.edu.au/coffee/
They provide a far better estimate of true unemployment than the ABS series.
December 15th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
“Home sellers in Perth are doing it toughest with an auction clearance rate of around 16 per cent, down from 50 per cent a year ago.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/15/2446375.htm
Might be the sign of a serious turning point in Perth’s real estate market.
- Ernie.
December 15th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Perth falling the hardest makes the most sense to me. They had the biggest run up of everwhere. How many stories did we hear about Perth prices rising because of the mining boom? More like overly optimistic positive sentiment and massive credit growth. Ouch!!!
December 15th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
In 1997 I was a 20 year old sleeping on floors in the UK with < $1000 of total worth.
In 1999 I was a IT engineer with my own company who had all my money invest in the NASDAQ. I managed to triple my money buying biotech and dotcom companies.
In April-May 2000 I lost 85% of my portfolio, add to this the IT down turn and 2000 wasn’t a fantastic year economically but my company still had plenty in the bank and I had time to research.
During 2000 I tried to figure out how markets work, how money is created and what went wrong with my investments. With the aid of the internet I realised I had been a fool you got caught up in the hype and the bubble. But soon I also started to understand the system.
I read article after article about the the Rothschilds, the Morgans, the Bank of England, etc… Some of these articles were a little unorthodox, one lead to another and soon I’m reading about the New World Order. None of it meant much to me; I thought they were predominantly written by right wing militant Christian groups. The months past and I was concentrating on my career… then 911 happened and some of the damn articles I had read predicted this very event. They described a false flag operation in order to curtail civilian freedoms. I must admit the uncanny prediction did make me pay attention because “the doom sayers” describe a quite unpleasant future. Sure a lot was just delusional BS, but the fact that I had read about such an event did unsettle me.
Anyway I read about how the next big event was going to be economic and they advised one buy physical gold which I did @ US$300 /oz. A lot of the predictions were so alarming I decided to leave the UK for Australia, which I did in July 2002.
I unfortunately started to dwell some of the dire predictions, and I thought the market was going to crash without warning any day, so I was cashed up earning 4% while I could have been in the market getting 15% like every one else. I also ready back in April that the crash was planned for September, and the Fed had stop publishing M3 money data…
Here’s the point of my comment: Do you think it’s possible that the events we see played out in the “news” have been orchestrated to serve a fiendish elite global agenda? Don’t get me wrong I don’t think the banks and fund managers are in cahoots to bring down the Western financial system, but I do know if you provide alcohol to poorly educated young men and introduce a few women in to the mix there will be trouble… I just can’t predict when.
December 15th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Welcome aboard Rayons,
And no I don’t believe there’s a conspiracy behind all this. The basic reason–human incompetence and the sheer impossibility of coordinating so many “in the know”.
When given a choice between a stuff-up and a conspiracy as the explanation of some disaster, I go for the former every time (almost–there always is the odd Watergate, and they almost always backfire).
The characters who are supposed to be in on this conspiracy know less about how the system operates than Bernanke or Paulson or any of the others currently charged with fixing a mess they don’t understand.
Things like the conspiracy nuts picking September 11? All you had to do was read the New York Times some years earlier, know that there had been an unsuccessful attack on the subway of the World Trade Center, and just predict another one.
December 15th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Hanlon’s razor (or a close interpretation)
“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity”
December 15th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
Essentially there are so many short-term benefits to the system that we ignored the long-term problems. When presented with an economy where asset prices are appreciating rapidly (two-thirds of adults own a property, almost all have shares through superannuation), unemployment is relatively low and wages high thanks to stimulation of the economy by debt it all looks wonderful.
The times when debt hasn’t expanded (mid 70’s, early 80’s and early 90’s) haven’t been particularly good times, people lost jobs, businesses collapsed, etc. “Good economic management” has been ascribed to times when debt expanded and the faster the better. Steve has a DebtWatch issue on this.
Some of the mainstream economists have been blaming greed and poor regulation. My expectation is that if we were better regulated the interest rates would just be lowered further to ensure that debt expanded, otherwise the economy stalls. So when there is a shock in the economy there is less margin to drop rates and people start defaulting earlier.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Thank you Steve. I hope you are right.
Based on the information I have obtained and what I believe to be rational sociology, the events of the past 9 years point to a sinister reality.
And while I agree that stupidity was/is/will be the locomotive, I believe this was factored in.
Lets try and spin this another way….
Your goal:
1.- Create the biggest most powerful financial entity
Some considerations:
1.- Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999. (cost the banking industry some US$300M in lobbying)
2.- Global mechanisms to purchase foreign financial entities, operate in other countries & expansion of industry requiring your services.
3.- US (UK’s too) primary industries are Defence and Financial Services (so you have friends in government).
How would you address your goal?
As the head of a large financial institution you have a considerable amount of tools at your disposal; so paying a couple 100 “Research Institutes” who hire a couple 1000 “Experts” is well within your budget.
The FSM Act of 1999 while a boom for you has force other nations to adopt similar deregulation (GATS & FTA) through the WTO in order to compete.
I would “in hindsight” do exactly what “they” did (expansion of debt, sale of crap to anyone, etc, etc). I would go for broke because the prize is substantial and I know the other players are also going for broke, I also know there has to be at least 1 final winner because my industry makes the world go round. And I know that even if I fail I have been and most probably will be generously compensated for my effort. My goal isn’t to consider the social consequences.
Now, for the big picture…
Your goal:
1.- Create a one world government, with your trusted ones as the “rulers”.
How would you go about completing your goal?
Yes of course it’s an unbelievably prodigious challenge… but so is rolling out a collaborative application used by 30000 employees in 14 countries with multiple redundancies & failovers; with people who have difficulty using email.
World domination isn’t a new game, it’s been played for 1000’s of years. The plots and subplots in this game have always been complicated, convoluted and camouflaged.
I unfortunately don’t poses the intellect to play this game to it’s conclusion, but after following it for 8 year I can see the brilliance behind some of the moves and I understand the logic behind others… so this Credit Crunch wasn’t unexpected, I’m just surprised they decided to name it like a breakfast cereal.
And in order to play the game you must be very well versed in “history” because that’s what you use to model your moves… and even I know that past deregulation has ALWAYS caused trouble.
Thank you.
PS: Please excuse my grammar errors, sometimes I am unable to see that which I don’t wish to see.
December 16th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
rayons, read my previous post. This is simply about a system where everyone thinks they are winning. Home owners are happy, banks are happy, governments are happy, most people are happy because they have a job. Even those that have gone into excessive debt are happy because they will end up making money, or so they think. Creating lots of money means that everyone has lots of money, just don’t try to spend it. No conspiracy theories required.