Comments on: Can the USA debt-spend its way out?

By: reason

reason — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:19:42 +0000

Can anybody translate the Finnish?

By: Tulevaisuuden näkymiä «

Tulevaisuuden näkymiä « — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 15:43:01 +0000

[...] Kuvio 3: Yksityinen ja julkinen velka suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen Japanissa 1985-2010 (Steve Keen) [...]

By: Richard J. Wood

Richard J. Wood — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:51:54 +0000

Good morning Steve,

The bailout/thievery commitments that the financial institutions have so far managed to get the U.S. government to go along with, now total something on the order of $8.5 trillion, according to Bloomberg News.

To get some idea of what that adds up to, in doing research for his “Bailout Nation” book, Barry Ritholz calculated, using inflation adjusted figures, that it is greater than the cost of the Marshall Plan, the Louisiana Purchase, the race to the Moon, the S&L Crisis, the Korean War, the New Deal, the invasion of Iraq, the Vietnam War, and NASA — combined.

Combined, those total just under $4 trillion.

The only American historical event that comes anywhere near the bailout commitments was World War II, at $3.6 trillion.

Still less than half of the current thievery.

By: prudentsaver

prudentsaver — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:27:02 +0000

I think it’s very interesting what will happen if japan return to it’s quantitative easing program, with the US to joining in.

Even if japans easing program did not do that much for Japan other than suppressing the Yen, boosting exports, and causing bubbles, and inflation everywhere through the carry trade, I think there is real danger for the “carry trade bubble economy” going on, if the US joins japan, and they hit the pedal to the floor at the same time.

By: prudentsaver

prudentsaver — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:11:27 +0000

I think that if history really is repeating, and this Chart tells the story: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/IMG0014_4969953.PNG

Then this would be similar to 1938, and not 1929, the reflation phase already happened in 2003-2008. However could really the dollar take it this time around, and not collapse? What about WW2? WW3? A big war would be the natural progression from here on.

By: Interest Rates » » Can the USA debt-spend its way out? Steve Keen’s Oz Debtwatch …

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 20:43:01 +0000

[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]

By: hbl

hbl — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 19:00:32 +0000

Steve-

Where did you get your debt-to-GDP data on Japan? When I did some digging a few months ago the best crude estimate I could come up with for 1990 (combining multiple sources) was 250% — see paragraph 5 of a post from another blogger:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/has-deleveraging-even-begun-not-for.html

I suspect your data is likely to be more accurate but am curious why they differ so much.

By: hbl

hbl — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 05:29:39 +0000

I'm curious where you found this data on Japan. My very crude approximation sent to another blogger earlier this year was 250% total debt-to-GDP in Japan in 1990, though I suspect your numbers are more trustworthy.

By: prudentsaver

prudentsaver — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 03:16:34 +0000

Here is another picture, other than the primitive one I made, that show the dow vs the nikkei, in a true relationship.

Lucky for the US they don’t have a stock market bubble the way japan did. The US stock market now, is like the the market in Japan, after 20 years of deflation.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/NikkeiDow.gif

(they was at around the same level in 1963

By: prudentsaver

prudentsaver — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 02:08:10 +0000

The Continental and the railroad boom, at the same time, maybe that’s Warren Buffet have been loading up on railroad stocks. History have a way of repeating itself, in an interview he said the dollar is going to become worthless, later corrected to worth less:)