The suggestion that the Federal Government might extend its guarantee to managed funds in return for the funds becoming banks is, as Glenn Dyer has observed for Crikey, sheer bunkum.
On the lender side, this sector of the finance industry largely arose to make money out of lending practices or financial products that were too adventurous for banks themselves.
On the “depositor” side, investors in these companies knew full well that they weren’t making deposits that can be withdrawn at call—as with a bank—but investments.
One consequence of this non-bank behaviour was that managed funds weren’t required to keep on hand the idle funds that banks must to meet the possibility of depositors withdrawing their funds at will. This of course increased the potential upside—less idle funds, therefore higher potential returns. When the economy was booming, this freedom from the prudential limits of a bank was a winner for both the companies and their investors—the sacrifice of liquidity was rewarded with higher returns.
But now, in the midst of this financial crisis, investors are willing to sacrifice returns to get liquidity—only whoops, managed funds aren’t liquid because…
You get the drift.
If times were normal, then the government could happily stand by when the odd managed fund suffered a run, and had to freeze redemptions. But now that eight major fund managers have frozen $12 billion in funds, standing by doesn’t seem an option.
However, it may be a more sensible strategy that the offer to convert managed funds to banks. After all, it takes more than the wave of a magic wand to make this transition.
Becoming banks might require the funds to give up the investment strategies that have defined them to date. There is little chance that any of these funds would immediately meet Basel II risk capital requirements, for example. What should they then do? Call in the loans that are outside the pale allowed to banks? This would surely precipitate what the funds and the government are trying to avoid: the funds calling in their loans to meet redemption demands, and thus bringing many commercial construction projects to a halt (not to mention stuffing up insurance contracts a la HIH, given AXA’s insurance business).
Nor are the funds likely to have on hand the hundreds of millions of dollars of cash needed to convert investor funds to at call deposits. They’d likely have to borrow these from the RBA—dramatically increasing their idle balances and cost of funds at a time their business model was suddenly driven from adventurous to conservative.
The government has been making policy on the run during this crisis, which is the only way it can behave when the situation itself is unprecedented: there is no “how to” manual for coping with any financial crisis, let alone one of this magnitude.
Often those policies have seemed sensible, and may well prove to be so with the benefit of a far distant hindsight. The guarantee of bank deposits surely fits that bill, because the very last thing we want is a run on the banks.
But this policy suggestion may be one that is best retracted. After all, the managed funds haven’t collapsed: they are still paying dividends to investors—all they’re not able to do is to return investors capital to them immediately.
The funds are also in a legitimate position to freeze redemptions, while still meeting their dividend payment obligations. These “market-based funds” differ from shares, in that most of those who invested in them did so for the income stream rather than capital gain. A case-by-case approach to assessing alleged special needs to withdraw capital is feasible.
That may not always be possible, of course—if the economy turns sharply for the worse, many of the investments made by managed funds will sour and investors will actually lose their money, rather than simply having to tolerate their illiquidity. Losses then will be unavoidable.
Standing by would then still be the best option. Greenspan’s proclivity to rescue investors from every last market collapse is part of the reason why we’re now in the biggest collapse since The Really Big One. The real pain inflicted back then caused a fundamental shift people’s attitudes to finance—which we have since forgotten. Re-learning that lesson may once again require some pain.






October 31st, 2008 at 7:32 am
Sure, the egomaniacal Rudd Govt has been making policy on the run, but then pride got in the way when it turned out that this hastily put-together unlimited guarantee has significant downside in the way it has rippled through financial markets in Australia.
So instead of simplifying the guarantee by capping it at the lower end, they just seem to be sticking to their guns and throwing out the notion of having a dynamic policy stance. They have continually tried to dig themselves out of a hole instead of capping the guarantee to something akin to what the US and UK have in place.
They would sooner become raving mad dogs than to succumb to the position taken by Malcolm Turnbull and the Opposition. Pride and ego, love it!
I would like to know, will this mean an influx of foreign cash into Australia banks, which in turn would lift the AUD?
October 31st, 2008 at 9:42 am
Steve
Your final comments are spot on – “The real pain inflicted back then caused a fundamental shift people’s attitudes to finance—which we have since forgotten. Re-learning that lesson may once again require some pain.”
So what do you make of the contradictory statements from Mr Batellino yesterday with regard to housing and share markets?
On the former, he seemed somewhat annoyed (that the RBA’s confidence sales pitch was being countered) in saying – “And, to top it off, some commentators are predicting sharp falls in house prices here in Australia”.
Later, in reference to share markets, he states that “after a few years, a cyclical upswing starts to look like a trend and more of us try to jump aboard. Eventually this pushes asset prices to levels that are higher than can be justified by the income produced by the asset, and prices correct down.”
It seems to me the contradiction has most to do with political sensitivities, NOT MARKET REALITIES!
And it can only damage the credibility of both the RBA or Mr Batellino.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:48 am
Hi Steve!
I agree that asking managed funds (i.e. investments) to become banks (i.e. deposits) in order to qualify for government guarantee is very difficult to implement at an instance operationally and legally.
As you said,
I don’t know about you, but I sense some kind of underlying sacarsm (to those in the investment business) by politicians when they suggest this idea.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:00 am
I think the issuers of these products have done a good job of creating the expectation that it is the Government’s responsibility to “fix” the problem and avoiding focus on themselves. Just smart usage of society’s attitude of not taking responsibility for their decisions: someone else (ie taxpayer) should save me.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Hi Brett of homes4aussies,
Great post. Only people with a flawed understanding of economics, can’t connect the dots between various markets. They all work on similar principles.
Steve, I’ve got a few questions for you which I am uncertian about.
Which school of economics do you “adhere to”/”believe in”? (Austrian/Chicago/Keynesian/etc)
Which kind of economic system do you believe would be the “best”? (Anarcho-capitalism/Capitalism/Mixed/etc)
(If this is too off topic, could you create a topic for this, or send me an email.)
Thanks,
Uriah
October 31st, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Spot on. Actually, I thought this move by the polticians was quite clever. Although they are obviously making policy on the run ever since Wayne got back from his junket, and quite probably getting advice from the wrong people, this move shows some signs of cleverness. That’s because it doesn’t actually change anything.
I am a big fan of “masterly inaction” by governments in these times of crisis. Markets are jumpy enough without worrying about what the government will pull next. Reassuring words, a sense of being in control, but as little real action as possible is ultimately for the best.
Plenty of time to invoke Keynes to boost the recovery (and take a shot at winning the next election).
October 31st, 2008 at 5:33 pm
So these funds are “frozen” forever?, in my thinking that is theft when you cant get it back. What rights do the investors have to get their money back? How are these investment companies able to never payback the money? Is it going to be a court case? And when property crashes 30-40 percent I can only see blood being spilt by the investors try to get their money out. This is going to get very ugly! No wonder the government want to do something, or to keep the credit dream (nightmare) alive.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Bartellino is on the record stating that Aussie households can manage current and even HIGHER levels of debt due to rising real household wages. This is the underpinning of high and higher house prices, so he has said.
Well now, Bartellino’s theories will be put to the test in a declining economy and rising unemployment.
The RBA has been blindsided by the commodity price collapse. I’m suspecting they will be further blindsided by the effect of unemployment on housing assets.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Hi Steve,
Thank you for another great dose of reality … You must feel like a doctor in the asylum dealing with all these idiots (media and pollies … and most of your fellow academics).
I have a question that I wondered if you might be able to point me to the answer, or address this if you have time. I did search your site, but couldn’t find anything specifically addressing this question / topic.
What would we lose by nationaling our banking system?
Following on from that (as another alternative) is there any downside, in terms of control of the money supply and ‘credit creation’ front if banks were not deposit taking? That is, could banking be ‘re-set’ to only lend money it borrows from the government?
An one further related question … what is your view of theories relating to creation of money ‘as debts’ verses ‘real money’ as the real problem … ala this type of explanation http://www.prosperityuk.com/prosperity/prosperity.html ?
Last week on BBC radio some ‘quantitative analysts’ were saying that there was no problem with what they were doing, they just needed better models … yep … let’s go do it all over again. Idiots.
Clearly you are right that speculation on assets (currency, FX, company shares, property, and their derivatives) is the problem if you are vaguely awake. It seems to me that we will never have a stable local (or world) economy while everything is driven by speculation. Making money doing nothing, or at least by producing nothing, has killed us.
Rudd wants to address ’salaries of greedy executives’, but has said nothing about speculation being the driver of our problems.
Keep it up Steve. You will be shown by history to have been correct … you already are.
Thanks.
Regards,
Andrew
November 1st, 2008 at 5:33 am
It’s not related to this article, but I have reflected on your graphs about the stock market bubble ,the dow jones double bubble if you like.
I think it’s not 1929-1930, but more like late 1974, beginning of 1975. A lot of stocks, general motors, general electric, behaves as if it was in 1974. The US stock market compared to the US GDP is also around the same as in the bottom of the 73-74 bear market. Down 42 % in 73-74, down 42 % this time to. I think the confusing part about it, is that it went from 200 % of GDP to around 60-70 % of GDP in a very short time. And in that time the inflation was running very high, much more than 2,5 % in parts of it, more like 8-14 %, see my reference shadowstats.com So by using the CPI it looks as if the stock market is in the stratosphere, but using GDP, it’s not higher than in 1974. Oil was 9 dollars in 1974, it’s around 60 dollars now. GDP have increased 10 times. If the trend in GDP expansion goes on after a soft last quarter, Oil might be at 400 dollars in 6 years time, to match the 1980 top in terms of GDP. But first, if the market don’t spin into a deflationary spiral, I think oil should drop a little more, but move up as the world economy start to pick up later because of peak oil. The yield curve looks very steep now, and a new credit expansion might actually happen, instead of the debt deflation.
What are your comments about using the GDP, like Warren Buffet does, for valuing the stock market, instead of using the CPI?
November 1st, 2008 at 5:44 am
My way of looking at the markets are a mix of fundamental and technical.
If you compare the different eras, looking at the dow jones:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The nasdaq are very cheap, many companies are selling for less than the cash they have – debt.
I think the development in the nasdaq from 2000-2008 match the dow jones in 1929-1937,
please look at the graphs and compare, 1932 looks identical to early 2003.
Look at the dow jones, in 1974, the patterns, and graphs match now perfect.
Some emerging markets, that are mostly related to china and commodities, look like 1974, or 1937. Emerging markets like China, have a lot of stocks that are down 80-90 % now. Some are selling for less than the cash they have. I think we are at a bottom, and no longer are on the way down.
November 1st, 2008 at 8:55 am
Hi all,
My apologies for being light on in responses to posts–I’m trying to juggle too much work in a range of areas.
On the Share Market Valuation/GDP ratio, yes that’s one useful measure, but I stick with the Share Market Index/CPI as an indicator because it’s a facet of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis that there are two price levels in capitalism, and the divergence between them is a measure of financial stress.
On economic theory, Minsky is my most immediate well-spring, but I also have foundations through Keynes, Schumpeter and Marx, and rely upon the work of some more technical and less well-known economists John Blatt and Richard Goodwin. Plus I’m influenced by work done on economics by physicists.
I’ll be publishing a book on the crisis at some stage–hopefully soon at a popular level and another very technical version in 2-4 years–where I’ll detail and integrate the economic influences on me.
My comment that getting out of the crisis will involve (debt moratoria and therefore) temporary nationalisation of banks (because the former would make their de facto bankruptcy a de jure event) doesn’t mean that I want the State to take over finance. Ultimately I see that as a legitimate predominantly private activity, but only when it restricts itself to mainly providing working capital and investment funds for firms.
A state-directed financial system could do the former while the system coped with the transition shock of abrogating the useless speculative debt accumulated during this crisis. Once that period was over, the re-privatisation of most of the financial system could occur.
As to whether this hypothetical could become actual… I doubt it, at least for 2-4 years. I expect instead series of financially-oriented rescues will be attempted. Just as in Japan, which is still mired in a debt-deflation 16 years on…
November 1st, 2008 at 9:47 am
Latest on Fund and freeze of withdrawals:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/11/at-last-genuine-help-instead-of.html
Appears as if govt has buckled (although some latitude is fair enough in extreme cases) and changed the rules on withdrawal:
The change would allow them to give preference to members who are “unable to meet reasonable and immediate family living expenses”. Those members would be limited to withdrawing a maximum of $20,000 each, plus half of the balance of their investment.
Still the Big Picture needs to be keep in mind – we are all victims of disaster capitalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disaster_capitalism
Cheers
November 1st, 2008 at 10:29 am
I have noted that the 10 year treasuries have started to go up, since the federal reserve started to print money. Now it’s around 3,95 % ,definitely in a rising trend, giving a very steep yield curve, it seems that when they can’t get a steep enough yield curve to stimulate the economy under normal circumstances, printing money to buy junk seems to do the trick . It don’t apply to the 30 years, they are supposed to be popular in Japan, and that worries me. I even fear buying 30 year bonds might be a part of the federal reserves quantitative easing program, making them artificially low to protect homeowners. When the Japanesese small investors buys 30 year treasuries, perhaps the worst investment I can think of, there is time to worry. They must be extremely naive to think that they will be protected against the fundamentals of peak oil. I don’t think this is compatible with deflation at all. And I think the fundamentals of the US debt levels to the rest of the world, and their ability to pay back, speak against deflation, I also think that China might be able to lower interest rates and boost their own economy successfully, and as a part of that solution buy less treasuries, forcing US interest rates up, meaning that it’s really China, not the US, that determine the fate of the dollar.
I think it’s possible that this could be the start of a dollar sell off and a revaluation of the Chinese currency, after Pimco started loading up on TIPS, and they are supposed to be smart and know what they are doing, that thought have certainly crossed my mind. Could there be a bubble in treasuries, that when when it blows, makes a highly inflationary environment, with sharply rising interest rates?
That is the thing I envision in the future, rising interest rates, and inflation, not deflation.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:38 am
The trend to back it up, look at the dip in the TIPS lately
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTP5A10
November 1st, 2008 at 11:40 am
The freeze on managed funds was an unintended consequence of the government meddling in the market. This new idea from the government to allow managed funds to become banks will lead to further unintended consequences as Steve pointed out:
“Nor are the funds likely to have on hand the hundreds of millions of dollars of cash needed to convert investor funds to at call deposits. They’d likely have to borrow these from the RBA—dramatically increasing their idle balances and cost of funds at a time their business model was suddenly driven from adventurous to conservative.”
The question is, what would be the consequences of this?
November 1st, 2008 at 12:42 pm
if the government do nationalise banks and continue to give more taxpayer funds to them, perhaps hosptials could also be nationalised, turned into banks,….and properly funded?
just joking!
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Prudentsaver,
I have read a lot of the arguments for both inflation and deflation. I acknowledge that we could have a very inflationary environment in due time, but personally, I give this a 15% chance of occurring.
My arguments for the deflationary scenario are: (I will give my counter arguments for the inflationary scenario below)
a.) Wages in the west are not rising rapidly and in fact will probably come down further, therefore people who are in debt are less likely to take on more debts
b.) People who are owed money (banks and creditors) are less likely to lend to those already in debt (which is most people)
c.) This causes asset prices to come down
d.) As assets prices come down, people expect them to keep coming down and are therefore less likely to borrow money to increase wealth – instead preferring to hoard money to increase relative wealth
e.) This cycle continues and a mass psychology of deflationary expectation is reinforced.
If this persists, deflation becomes very hard to break as people will spend less waiting for prices to get cheaper no matter how much extra cash banks have to loan (just like Japan post 1990). We then leave the era where people purchase because they *want* things and move to the era where people purchase because they absolutely *need* things. This is exactly what happened in the 30’s – very little got wasted and people managed by doing without. It is the complete opposite way in which we think today. A lot of people think it will never happen again. History would suggest otherwise so I am no discounting it even though it seems far fetched to many.
Finally, if the bond market suspects that the government is just going to print away their problems, then I will expect yields to rise very rapidly in Treasuries as you have pointed out. I think from your analysis, you are thinking that this will be highly inflationary, however, my thinking is that unless wages start rising rapidly, higher yields will not lead to increased lending – it will lead to decreased willingness of participants to take on debt which will actually be ultimately deflationary. I believe that unless wages start rising, it will be hard to avoid deflation – even if Treasuries signal otherwise.
I do however acknowledge that a few things will break the above scenario into an inflationary environment:
a.) Increased supply of money that is forced into the hands of people willing to spend it. At the moment liquidity is being offered to banks as well as backstops to decrease their fear of one another, however, this does not mean that money is making its way into the hands of consumers willing to spend it. It is only when this happens that inflation will pick up. I will start to worry about this when Ben and Hank start giving out $50K stimulus checks (might not be far fetched).
b.) Peak oil (I think you mentioned this). When the world realizes that peak oil is actually not that far off (and looking at the raw data, this does appear to have merit), then a lot of the supply of that money that is idly sitting around at the moment will be willing to come out and buy up. This will cause a mad scramble to spend money locking in future energy supply and could be highly inflationary just as the oil supply shock in the 70’s was.
c.) Wage inflation and isolationism. If countries become isolationist, China will not be able to export its wage deflation as readily. If the union movement gathers pace in this environment, it could cause wage inflation which will have an inflationary stimulus and encourage people to take on more debt as they see their wages rise.
All of these last points have a reasonable chance of coming into play. I can already see a.) becoming increasingly frequent, b.) looks to be the case so long as we don’t have significant demand destruction and c.) is starting by I am not sure how far it will go.
At this stage, I am weighting a 15% probability of a 70’s style inflation scenario and an 85% probability of a 90’s Japan style deflation.
Personally, I think it is too early to act on the inflation scenario because an investment strategy for that scenario is probably the opposite for a deflationary scenario. Liquidity and ability to act quickly should the inflation scenario play out will be important.
I would be interested in others opinions and what probabilities they assign to various scenarios playing out.
November 2nd, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Fairly clearly Rudd thinks that the solution to the problem is to keep debt increasing. So it is not just a case of stopping some runs on minor banks, there is a need to keep money flowing in so it can be borrowed. Why else encourage house buying at the peak of the market ? Gets some short term popularity but it is still two years to an election, sufficient time to make it all look stupid.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
> Making money doing nothing, or at least by
> producing nothing, has killed us.
I couldn’t agree more with Andrew that the probelm is that our civilization, or at least the capitalist countries, are focused on making money and doing nothing. The greater issues that this world needs to realize before moving forward are:
- We live on a planet (with limited space on it) that is part of a solar system in our universe
- No economical theories would be correct if they they don’t consider the limited size of the Earth. There is no such thing as unlimited growth in a system with limited physical capacity
- The world should focus on achieving something for the planet and out civilization rather than trying to make more money with speculation and being ignorant.
A heavy climat change, oil resources depleating or an asteroid hitting the Earth will wake up the people for the bigger picture. But it would be much better if we figure out whats really important before any of the above happens to us.
To solve the economic problems humans must first realize that they live (are pretty much trapped) on a planet with limited capacity.
November 4th, 2008 at 6:50 am
I think the deflation argument is flawed. The treasury yields in the US, was destined to head higher in 1998, until China started buying treasuries in 2000. That have created an enviroment of a phony low CPI, reporting very little inflation even gains in the PPI, and CRB index have matched the seventies, and things like champagne have increased 4 times in price. Only two times before in the recent history have the commodities increased so much, it have been in the 1932-1949 era, and in the 1971-1980 period. Now the yields in the US is very stimulative, and if China stop buying them, they will get even more so, because of high long yields compared to the short end. There is no way deflation can happen under such a scenario, that will only happen if the long yields decline, and that is very much against the trend. What can happen is instead a boom, fueled by low interest rates. However, this will be a boom in an enviroment of increasing long term years, meaning a boom similar to the booms in the 1950-1980 era. If we say some deflation, the boom will resemble the 1950-s more than the 1970-s.
I can easy see a 1950 environment, where the dividend, cash producing stocks becomes very popular, you can buy a house with a 30 year fixed mortgage at 2 %, in an environment of rising long term yields.
I think the deflation argument, ignore the 4 times increase in the CRB index since 2000, and the reduction of stock market to GDP from 2000 to 60 % of GDP (no more than the historical average).
Another sign, stocks are cheap, is that the dow jones don’t fall in foreign currency terms, because when the dow falls the dollar strenghten. If the dow fell much more than the dollar strenghtened, creating an assymetrical relationship, it would be a sign stocks were expensive, but it’s not, the relationship is symmetrical.
If you look at Japanese stocks measured in euro terms, you will see they have stayed flat, even increased some, this year. That is because the stock market is very cheap. Had it been expensive, the Japanese market had become cheaper in foreign currency terms when it was falling, but it did not.
November 4th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Hi Prudentsaver,
I’m very interested in your discussion on deflation. I didn’t quite understand your argument and would love if you could state the case again for me.
I think you were saying that since 2000 real inflation was much higher than what was quoted. Therefore there is no deflation. In other words the figures were a fake. I agree!
I thought most people talking about deflation though, were looking forward. Not back to 2000.
I thought the deflation argument went roughly as follows:
We have had a massive increase in the money supply because of the debt binge. This has caused price inflation to rise dramatically. This was visible in the price of commodities and most assets.
Since that time the depositors/lenders have become nervous and they began pricing in higher risk (thus rates began rising).
This freaked out the borrowers because they were afraid they could not afford to pay all the loans back. This further freaked out the lenders because then they became convinced they would lose their money. Assets started falling in price and buyers were afraid to bid prices any higher. This falling value of assets caused more people to freak out and sell, many now at a loss.
It is this process of debt deflation (contracting money supply or loans being paid back or written off) that leads to deflation. The debt deflation is consumer driven (not liquidity driven) as buyers become increasingly risk averse. The risk aversion flows out of the euphoria of the ride up and the stress and pain of the ride down. That causes prices and debt to continue its spiral down.
For the ship to turn around (back to boom) the buyers/borrowers have to be convinced that prices are rising. Another way to say it is they have to turn positive/bullish again. Just offering the money for new loans is not enough. The borrowers have to want the loans.
The US is a good example at present. 20% of home owners now owe more than their house is worth. These owners/previous owners will be almost impossible to convince to buy again. They will be so burnt, it may take 10 or more years to encourage them back into the property market. So where will the fresh buyers come from for a new boom?
Eventually a new boom will come. They alway do. The question becomes, how low will prices go and how long will it take for prices to start rising again?
Please point out the floors in my argument because I have structured my finances on the assumption of deflation and I would love to know if I am wrong.
November 4th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Bullturnedbear,
That is how I see it playing out as well. I do however acknowledge that there is a chance that all of this extra cheap money flowing around may stimulate things enough to enter another inflationary period. In my mind, this has not yet occurred and so there is no point investing for it yet. Those that have started investing for it have not yet seen rising gold and oil prices, two things which will shoot to the moon should hyperinflation take hold.
The problem with investing for hyperinflation too early is that you will loose large amounts of money while cash increases its relative value. Ultimately I believe that inflation will be driven by peoples perceptions and their willingness to take on new debt and buy more things as you pointed out. I don’t see this happening just yet – but it could happen. Instead I see people nervous about things, cutting back and trying to pay of debts – all of which are deflationary. Personally, I think the inflationists have too much faith in governments and central banks. I remain skeptical, but if proven wrong, will change my strategy. The most important thing is to acknowledge each argument and be prepared to switch tacts if need be because both have a probability of occurring.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Thanks Emil,
I very rarely come across people who understand or accept the deflationary argument. So I get worried that I have turned into a fringe loony.
I thought Prudentsaver may have a new insight that I hadn’t considered. I hope he comes back to continue the discussion.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Bullturnedbear,
When I mention deflation to people I get some very strange looks – so I know how you feel. We have been conditioned to always expect inflation so people have a hard time believing that they will ever witness it again. Perhaps they are right and central banks will be powerful enough to stop it – I don’t discount this so I am interested in hearing the arguments for it, but I give it less chance of occurring.
These are two interesting sites for exploring the two sides of the story that I have found (apart from this site of course).
Deflation:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
This guy (Mish) has been spot on, both short term, medium term and long term. I have followed him for over two years. He isn’t an academic but has a great sense for what is going on and articulates his arguments well. He is the only one who has accurately predicted everything. Others have done well but their theories fall down and get tweaked every now and again. He has pretty much been flawless.
Inflation:
http://www.itulip.com/
I don’t like the layout of their site, but they have some interesting ideas. Their basic argument is that FED will oversupply dollars which will eventually overwhelm the contraction in credit and lead to rampant inflation. They espouse Ka-Poomn theory. The “Ka” part being disinflation. The “Poom” part being rampant inflation. Read this link for a synopsis:
http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm
To me their thinking is all over the shop and gets tweaked to show that the underlying theory still holds up. From their theory we should be in the “Poom” phase (after the 2001-2003 post .com “Ka” phase), but it isn’t stacking up like that so the tweaks come. Still, they are well regarded in the inflationist camp.
Mish is open to inflation at a later stage but not yet and maybe not at all. He is a prolific writer and I rarely miss his postings.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:59 am
I think you will loose a lot if you are positioned for deflation. Actually, I think that is crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy, when you see Keen writing “I told you so”, like he did on the top of the page now, and Roubini are talking about closing the stock markets, and a 2 year recession, you know they are running out of momentum, and they need to readjust to reality (sorry Keen). We are not in a 1929 like downturn, but in a 73-74 type of bear market, just having ended now. In that bear market the stock market also went from around 100 % to 60 % of GDP. The oil price at that time, was exactly the same compared to GDP as now. Japan was always a saver and exporter nation, fiddling with an undervalued currency, while the US is a consumer nation, with no fundamental strength in their currency. Japan had their downturn when the world was in a deflationary cycle, the trend, have been inflationary for some time, and these trends tend to last 17-18 years when they first start. Inflationary from 1965-1982, deflationary 1982-1998, inflationary from 1998-2015, at around 2015 the US stock market will be at rock bottom. Once this liquidation phase is over, and I think it’s happened at the 10 of October, the Baltic dry is bottoming out as I am writing, the Baltic dry, a very important economic indicator is going to bottom out tomorrow, Friday or next Monday. NO later. That will mark the start of the Obama boom You check it out. meaning we are well into a bull market for stocks, and probably commodities such as oil. This is probably the best buying opportunity you will ever get in the next 6 years. The CPI is a fantasy. I have tracked the things I use in my daily life, and it suggest an inflation year by year in the order of 8-12 %. Look at http://www.shadowstats.com and compare their statistics to tobacco stocks such as phillip morris (that are great inflation hedges. You will it match perfect.)
A cash account from year 2000, have lost around 50 % of real value. Buying stocks now, is the only chance to get some of that money back. One more thing: When Japan had 0 % interest rates, they were creating bubbles everywhere, watching different types of stock, is like traces of YEN. What will happen with US rates at 0-1 %, bubbles, bubbles, AND MORE …
November 5th, 2008 at 7:11 am
If you exchange the normal CPI, used when making the bubble sized indexes, with the shadowstats CPI, you can really see how cheap stocks are.
Just for fun I calculated general electric.
Compared to GDP, it was around 70 cent in the bottom of the 73-74 bear market. No the GDP are so big that that equals 7 dollars. I estimate maybe GE have grown some as well, as a company I mean. Paying 20 bucks for general electric is not expensive, when I think of the growth in the company.
November 5th, 2008 at 7:14 am
About Mish. I think he is a nut. He can’t be bullish on treasuries, understand peak oil, and argument deflation at the same time. It’s just the liquidation phase now, that have made him look smart. Will he look smart 1 year from now? I don’t think so.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Hi Prudentsaver,
Good to hear from you again.
I still don’t get your argument looking forward. Your argument looking back is sound. I would say that 1982 to 1998 was dis-inflationary though, not deflationary.
To simply say that inflation is cyclical and will last till 2015 is not a very strong argument, no offense. Since July 2008 Commodities have fallen hard. I agree that has been forced liquidations. But liquidations is what triggers deflation. As stocks build because of falling demand, prices are slashed to clear the backlog.
Also to call a major “longterm” bottom in the sharemarket is either bold or hopeful. You may be right though, time will tell. I also agree share and commodity prices look oversold “today”. They may not look that way in a few months though.
I still argue that price is set by consumers and the consumers have become very risk averse. That risk aversion will be very hard to turn back to a positive in the near term. Sentiment will swing around short term, but the larger trend is down.
The FED printing money idea has some holes as well. If they print too much money they will cause treasuries to fall in value thus resulting in interest rates rising to encourage investors to keep buying/rolling over the treasuries.
America will find it very hard (some say impossible) to pay its debts. Therefore it is totally dependent on its lenders continuing to buy its treasuries. If the lending stops their economy will sink even harder. Is it possible that the US may have to start raising rates next year to attract fresh debt.
What processes and policies going forward are you saying will lead to increased inflation?
November 6th, 2008 at 10:21 am
I am delighted to answer. I am a visionary person, and a good market timer in the past. I know it sounds crazy, but I have a vision that stocks like railroad stocks will “take off” as treasuries tank. Gold could take off (in bubble fashion of course) Sugar especially (that tecnically still is in an uptrend, just like railroad shares) will also take off, (sugar and railroad are in the identical same, trend) look at the technical picture, they are identical, and a hedge against treasuries. Why does warren buffet post an article where there is a picture of a man jumping off a cliff with dollar wings, and he says it will get inflation, not deflation, and the time to buy stocks is now, not tomorrow, while he is loading up on railroad (railroad worked like gold, identical moves) last time it was terrible inflation in 1980) When you hear him, it sounds if he is more bearish on treasuries than he is bullish on stocks.
Look at the charts of the stocks, and commodities I mention. Look at the chart of treasuries. See if you get the same mental image and feeling I get. I think this is like 1998 with the nasdaq, for commodities maybe. That is maybe. Railroad benefit from lower oil prices, at the same time they can pass on higher oil prices, with railroad shares you first get to pass on the inflationary cost on the way up, then, when the bubble burst and the interest rates is very high because Bernanke probably have to follow paul volcker when treasuries tank, then you benefit again, from lower fuel prices and increased profit, and get paid two times.
If you are 100 % in cash and deflation, please listen to me, and put atleast 10 % into railroad, gold, soft commodities like sugar, or else you risk loosing a lot.
November 6th, 2008 at 10:26 am
I mean, it is not sure the US economy can handle a “paul volcker” at this fragile point in time, but that is what can happen, worst case with treasuries. I mean, what the hell are Japanese investors doing, investing in the 30 year US long bond, thinking they have some inside information because they suffered from deflation, thinking US is heading the same way, while the fundamentals is completely different? The Japanese investors are nuts. And you are nuts, if you are 100 % into treasuries.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Thanks Prudentsaver,
I’ll look into it. I guess you are saying you can’t yet tell if it’ll be Inflation or Deflation, But you expect some extra high inflation at some point. So for me to be 100% in cash was dangerous. Fair call and Thanks.
FYI I have been short the Dow and Naz. I also shorted gold when it hit $900 again. I have now closed gold and will shortly close the other positions.
Technically, Oil looks oversold and may also continue its bull run as well.
I still think we are headed for deflation. The reason virtually no-one agrees with my feeling on this, is because deflation is so rare. Therefore most people ignore and discount those who suggest deflation is on the way.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
prudentsaver,
I agree, a 10% inflationary position at this time is reasonable. However, I think calling Mish nuts is a bit harsh – he has predicted everything, he has been spot on, and he acknowledges that there could be inflation (especially with peak oil) but he is not calling for it yet. If you can find me a better track record, backed up with evidence from the inflationist crowd, I would be surprised. Peter Schiff and the iTulip crowd have taken a savage beating over the last 3 months over their belief in “decoupling” and “commodities will inflate to the moon”. People who listened to Mish are very happy with his predictions so I don’t think calling him nuts is fair.
I think Bullturnedbear and myself are both thinking “Yes, there is a chance hyperinflation can result. At the moment, we are not seeing any evidence for this but do not discount the possibility.” I think this is a pragmatic view and I wouldn’t worry about being seen as nuts until proven otherwise.
Now, consider these two options: Option 1, deflationary depression. If our markets started at the top at 100 and a deflationary depression results, we aim to hit the 20 mark. At the moment we are at 50.
Option 2: Hyperinflation. Once we hit the bottom then we will continue gaining momentum, always moving upwards. Stocks (and commods) will perform well here (look at Zimbabwae, their stock market is outperforming CPI by a long shot). Eventually, inflation will run at 20% per year.
Let us say we decided to invest for the deflationary scenario by holding cash or long safe bonds. If we move from cash to commds/stocks right now and inflation is the path, we do well. If however, deflation continues, and we get in at 50 and reach 20, this is a 60% haircut. People at the top lost 80%, so even getting in now could prove disastrous.
Let us say we wait for a while until we get confirmation regarding inflation or hyperinflation. let us say we wait a year, loosing 20% of the first years inflation then invest after that.
If we had got in at rock bottom, we get 298% increase after 5 years. If we get in after a year, we get 260% increase (1.2^5*1.05 – the 1.05 being the first years yield on say cash or bonds).
I would rather wait for some signals before jumping over the inflationist side than potentially loose 60% by jumping in now. Don’t you think this makes sense?
PS, 10 Year Treasuries are at 3.694% yield. That is the lowest they have been since the 60’s. The signals for inflation just aren’t there yet.
November 6th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Emil,
The fact that the yield on treasuries is so low tells me two things.
1. Risk aversion is so high that people would rather make almost zero return to “protect” what money they have left. And,
2. The rally in treasuries has been so hard that when it turns around, it will probably turn sharply. When the turn around in treasuries happens, the USA’s problems will be compounded, because it will be costing them more to raise new debt.
With all the bailouts they have started, their requirement for new debt must be huge. They better hope the punters stay risk averse for a long while yet. I doubt this will happen though. All markets have been punished hard. Very soon, maybe even after this current sell off, the markets will probably correct for an extended period. The yield on treasuries will most likely correct itself as well.
Anyway, As mentioned many times. This is just guess work and no one knows the future.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
BullturnedBear,
I understand what you are saying and have constantly been thinking, surely, with all of these bailouts, noone will want to touch Treasuries. Many people, including those in the deflationist camp, had been calling for increasing yields. I thought it would have to happen as well. The only person I know of constantly saying, “Not yet” has been Mish and he has been spot on. I keep thinking one day it has to happen but it hasn’t. This is the problem with investing for inflation at the moment, it is easy to think one day it has to increase, but until it does, you might be left holding the bag.
Could it be that the longer this episode drags out, the greater the chance the treasuries continue to hold their value and yields remain low? If we see stocks go down, day after day, month after month coupled with falling CPI, people will start thinking that 3%, 2% risk free in a deflationary environment looks attractive. Until the US actually fires up the printing press, I think this scenario is also on the table (as well as the scenario you point out above). Like you say, noone knows the future, but it is prudent to be prepared and not jump the gun in my opinion.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:58 am
I won’t enter the Mish – anti Mish argument just yet…it’s a case of one or two too many wines just now. So sorry !!
RE itulip, contrary to what is said here, you would have made a hell of a lot of money following them through the years, including the last 12 months. Nevertheless it is very US centric as has become the debate here.
We keep talking about US Treasuries problems and their debt problems. Our external debt problem is way more severe than the US. Whither interest rates here if those Japanese stop lending us money written in Aus dollars? I wonder why they would continue to do so in the future when they have seen 30% of their savings disappear in what..? …six weeks? I get a feeling they just might become a bit gun-shy! So where the hell is the A$ going to end up…never mind the US? (Of course the question remains …relative to what?)
Re inflation…who can doubt that these Governments will throw money at everything to get elected at the next election. Crikey! Just look at this First home buyers grant! The Aussie Reserve is lowering interest rates to what? Currently negative 10 to 12 % ,after tax,against real CPI? ARE THERE ANY LIMITS TO WHICH THEY WILL NOT GO TO TRY TO RE-INFLATE THIS THING? Of course there are not. not one of them gives a rats past the next election.
One last spanner in this works…I am an importer from China. Everyone in my industry is increasing prices by between 20 to 30% over the next 2 months. These increases will continue….we are not…repeat NOT covering our increased costs. I’d guess this applies to all importers and i don’t have the figures on hand to directly compute the effect of this on the inflation rate (defined, for this purpose, as the rate of increase in consumption prices).
Commodity price decreases are not feeding through to FOB prices. Increases of labour costs in China since last January are of the order of 30 to 40%. That’s a fact!
Maybe someone here smarter and soberer than i can do the maths and decide about deflation and inflation. More importantly…deflation or inflatio0n in what? The price of water, imported items, farm prices and house prices look to me like they are going to head in different directions!
Again sorry for my disjointed approach!
November 7th, 2008 at 6:08 am
I’m no academic, but I think there is two kinds of deflation. Debt deflation and price deflation. The theory goes that a rapid debt deflation leads to price deflation.
The theory follows that as debt deflation crashes the money supply people’s ability to spend falls and prices crash also. There is obviously lags and graphs move in zig zags.
Debt deflation is only beginning in Australia and so the figures will be quite contradictory for a while.
The US and UK are further along with debt deflation. It would be interesting to see if importers in the UK were able to pass on price rises after their currency has crashed. Buyer can simply go on strike which will make any business unprofitable, no matter how good it was in the past.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Just more technical stuff from me. From the technical view on airline stocks and railroad stocks, the resistance levels in these stocks are from the decreased fuel costs, that’s for sure. It was the same tendency in these stocks in March. The market knows the profit margins are going to increase with decreased fuel costs, that is why these stocks are finding a much higher resistance level than “oil” stocks that have fallen much further. When oil are coming from 147 down to a level that very well could end around 30 dollars it should really give quite a boost to earnings. Stocks like Burlington Northern is good and I bought it today at 80 dollars, their last quarter was the strongest in the history of the company, making the company worth more now than when buffet was buying at 80 in march, also then railroad and airline stocks were making an unsuccessful push, the buffet support around 80 makes the stock very predictable. I think this is a safe stock, compared to GDP the stock is around the same price level compared to GDP now as in the early 1980, it’s the same with UNP (but they have much worse management) and now the company is bigger due to the addition of santa fe to burlington nothern, making it even better value. I don’t see a risk with the company, only the general market climate. Today this trend towards lower oil price was very evident in airline stocks, that held up ok the last two days, in spite of the large drops. However, in a panic, and 29 like crash, I guess anything will be sold, no matter if the profits are going to increase.
However stocks are dangerous. One of my plays unfortunately blew up today, or will tomorrow when the market react to the third quarter results. The loss was small, I should have detected the moves before the presentation today as insider trading, I had the feeling something was very wrong when it behaved strange today, but was stupid enough not to dump the stock.
The technical view of sugar actually confuse me.
It looks like it’s going to really break out. Sugar consumption is also going to increase, always does in a serious recession and rough times, and there will probably be a lack of sugar in 2009.
Here is two graphs on why I like sugar:
http://crca.caloosahatchee.org/img/Sugar_Prices.jpg
The recession we are entering now, bears a strong similarity to the 73-74 bear market, and the unemployment graph from 73. Patterns are similar, and that recession was one of the few inflationary ones.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE
More sugar: http://www.investmenttools.com/images/wfut/softs/sb.gif
I really think the inflation cycle turned in around 1998-2000.
I think sugar are like a spring now, temporary hold down by the strength in treasuries.
Hecla Mining, in the same inflationary trend.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HL#chart2:symbol=hl;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Let me add that the price this stock in trading at now, is spectacular as an inflation hedge. If it don’t happen, the disaster with treasuries, you don’t need it, and will loose, just a small position here will work as an insurance. It also shows the turn in inflation in around 2000.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Let me add that the reason it was so cheap in 2000, really was not weakness in the company or silver, but that all the money was flowing into the nasdaq, that’s why todays price is around as low as it get’s. It was around around 77 dollar in 1980, in real terms that is almost 200 dollars. That was a bubble of course, but if treasuries go, then it will become a bubble stock right away, and it is good insurance now.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Prudentsaver,
What are you saying? What was cheap in 2000 and what will be a “bubble stock right away”?
I didn’t understand what your last post was saying.
More on Hyperinflation/inflation. For hyperinflation to occur at this stage, doesn’t the money supply have to increase from its peak of late last year. Not only would debt have to grow and replace the trillions that have already been lost to the system, but it would have to grow on top of that.
One thing I could see possibly happening is deflation for a time which dramatically reduces the World’s debt levels. The World’s governments will then over compensate and cause a fast turn around in prices and inflation of the money supply from a much lower base.
It all seems like such guess work with too many variables to know what will happen.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Sorry Prudentsaver,
I missed your entry just before the above one. That made sense of most of what you were saying. I think.
You’re not trying to spruik stocks to me and others on this site are you? That’s the oldest trick in the book.
Good luck! I hope your nerve holds out as the unthinkable happens and the market just seems to keep making new bottoms.
From a technical point of view the market is bearish. During a bull market you buy the dips and make a killing. During a bear market you short the rallies. You must believe this is a bull market in correction. Not a “real” bear market. Once again good luck!
November 7th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I agree btb. The buyers are a key in all this.
I still get a chill down my spine every time Steve posts the debt/GDP ratio chart, and I always think to myself that people who save more than they spend must be few and far between at the moment… and as the fall the equities and asset prices further erodes the ability of people to pay off debt, this will even more be the case…
And the savers are only going to spend once they perceive that prices have stabilized, but they’re not going to have the spending power to kick-start the economy until prices have fallen substantially, which could take some time (and in political terms an eternity).
Savers will also be very much in the minority – far outnumbered by the heavy spenders, the majority of whom will be fighting off bankruptcy and no doubt screaming out for government assistance. So given this, I think governments are likely to try just about every trick in the book to engineer a turnaround (and every one of these tricks is likely to be inflationary). But whether hyper-inflation results will depend on a myriad of factors… political, social, legislative… Predicting government actions is difficult enough in the good times.
And wouldn’t it be ironic if a significant proportion of the population actually welcomed hyper-inflation as a means of debt relief? A scary thought indeed.
b.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:45 am
On hyperinflation: I see it as a drop of confidence in the US and paper currencies, not because of inflation in the general price level, but because of perceived default risk and general panic when the herd see the safest investment is not safe anymore. To short the 30 year long bond is more safe than to own it. At this point I think everything is about loosing as little as possible and diversify well. I am about 30 % in stocks, the rest in cash. What could trigger a run, would be if the dollar start to really weaken towards Yen. It happened to the state of Iceland, only it was towards the dollar, and the US is just like a bigger version of Iceland, having debt it will never pay back towards Asia, Japan have already started selling treasuries, and have stopped buying it.
You know, in 2000, you could buy all gold mines in the world for the price of Cisco. Even if there is a bubble in cisco does not mean everything was in a bubble, hard assets and commodities was at a 200 year inflation adjusted low.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Boma , I am afraid the system will collapse and we will have hyperinflation if nobody borrow and spend. I don’t think our current system is stable in a deflationary environment.
November 7th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Another interesting thing, is that when every stock in 1929 was crashing 90 %, homestake mining increased around 600 % from 1929-1932, the closest thing to homestake mining today is barrick gold, ticker ABX. Mining stocks were depressed in 1929, just like now, or in 2000. However, the boom in commodities, was not really occurring before 1929 at all.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I just had a thought to add to the debate on deflation.
I think we would start to see wages rising dramatically (against the trend) or debt levels begin rising dramatically as a sign that inflation was ramping up again. At this stage the two opposite indicators are in play.
That’s not to say we will not see more speculative bubbles in some commodities. There is still liquidity out there. There is just not as much liquidity as there was. It just may be that the herd picks one or two commodities (eg, energy and/or gold or tulips) to stoke the fires of a new “temporary” bubble. But once deflation takes its full hold even those hypothetical bubbles will be choked out and end in tears. Again!
November 7th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
To add to the discussion regarding deflation/inflation I would like to make the following points.
1. Our monetary system is founded on money that is backed by debt and the government decrees this form of money as legal tender.
2. The dominant factor in the growth of the money supply has been through the willingness of lenders and borrowers to transact, with the lenders accepting some form of collateral for the forthcoming debt money from the borrowers. Thus, each time debt is created the money supply expands.
3. When the de-leveraging process begins and borrowers default on their debts and the assets, used as collateral, have been marked-to-market and repriced downwards then this debt money that once existed and backed by this collateral has just evaporated; this effect deflates the money supply. Furthermore, if this effect occurs rapidly enough, it will cause a *rapid* contraction in the money supply. If there is no new debt money created, by a new round of lenders/borrowers willing to transact, at the rate of debt destruction, which is highly likely, then the money supply will continue to deflate. As debt money is destroyed through this process, the money supply deflates, whilst the supply of existing stock of assets as well as goods and services relative to the money supply increases during this phase. The M1+M2 (real money) proportion of the overall money supply M3 will be greater. Those who have savings will have greater buying power. Thus, we have debt deflation as well as price deflation.
3. When the de-leveraging shock takes hold, a positive-feedback loop is established, which has the tendency to reinforce the devaluation of assets, which in turn further destroys debt money. This process continues until the monetary system reaches a point of equilibrium between the diminishing de-leveraging process and the inflationary effects of government and the it’s central bank.
4. If government and it’s central bank are not vigilant during this equilibrium phase, and draw out excess liquidity out from the monetary system, then a significant inflationary event may begin to take place.
5. The likely hood of deflation is far greater than inflation, with the authorities only able to possibly soften a little the hard landing. Although, in the longer term, inflationary pressures due to peak-energy and climatic change may begin to have a greater influence on the deflation/inflation tug of war.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
On the matter regarding yield on long dated treasury securities and whether they can be used to identify future inflation sentiment is questionable in this environment. I would suggest that it tells us more about liquidity conditions and risk aversion rather than future inflation sentiment or lack thereof.
November 8th, 2008 at 4:09 am
iconoclast, correct.As I have written before. Once the panic of 2008 fade, there will be an inflationary holocaust. Sugar, silver, gold risk going through the roof, but especially sugar because of the extremely favorable demand situation. We have never had a worldwide recession, and the demand for sugar will increase incredible and breweries start to bid up the price. The supply is very tight. It’s going to increase from 10-50 times in price.
The market is always wrong at these turning points. The US have piled on so much junk debt now, that there is almost no limits. Nobody will want to own treasuries once this panic fade. And the panic is already fading. What will drive the stock market is the poor quality of US treasuries.
November 8th, 2008 at 4:11 am
Sugar a bubble now? I hardly think so:
http://www.investmenttools.com/images/wfut/softs/sblog.gif
http://www.investmenttools.com/images/wfut/softs/sugar_re.gif
Sugar these days, are just reflecting the price of treasuries, there is NO compression factor as was the case with oil. Meaning, sugar is inexpensive, and once treasuries fade, people are going to run for anything that resemble value.