There’s an excellent article in The Age today on the mad methods of neoclassical economists. The author is Martin Feil, who was once a director of the Industries Assistance Commission–a previous incarnation of what is now called the Productivity Commission:
The article is entitled We can’t live on moonbeams and air.
I plan to tackle similar issues in my next two Debtwatch Reports. November’s (the 28th, which is also the second anniversary issue–I started the report in November 2006) focuses on the data that neoclassical theory directs the attention of economists to, and the data that the theory causes them to ignore. Crucially, the latter includes private debt–and Feil makes a similar set of observations. On the data that the RBA’s neoclassical economists consider important:
“For more than 20 years the RBA has focused its attention on inflation. This has been regarded by the past three governors of the Reserve as its fundamental task because inflation would result in higher prices, reduced consumer demand and a downturn in economic activity.”
And on the data they ignore:
“Rational market behaviour is a key assumption in free-market theory. The theory is that if consumers act rationally then they will determine, through an unfettered price mechanism, the optimal way of allocating scarce resources in the market.
This theoretical assumption is wrong… Has it been rational to rack up deficits created by the excess of imports over exports for the past 20 years? We owe $700 billion and much of that is in US dollars…”
Feil makes several observations on the attitude to dissent within the economic profession–and particularly to how receptive the official organs of economic policy are:
“The Productivity Commission also employs hundreds of economists in what has become an almost inquisitorial commitment to free-market economics. They have burnt rent-seeking heretics for 30 years. They will not tolerate backsliders in their own ranks.”
At least Universities do provide a refuge of sorts for non-orthodox economists like myself. We–economists who variously describe ourselves as Austrian, Post Keynesian, Marxian, Complexity Theorists, Evolutionary Economists and Econophysicists–are almost always in a minority in academic departments of economics and sometimes under attack. But at least we have a home of sorts, and various non-neoclassical forums exist where we develop our non-orthodox ideas.
One of these, the Society for Heterodox Economics, will have its annual conference this December in Sydney. There are also several international discussion groups such as the Protest Against Autistic Economics and Fred Lee’s directory of heterodox economics.
For the record, my own approach to economics is a blend of Post Keynesian–especially Hyman Minsky–Complexity/Econophysics/Evolutionary economics, and a very non-standard reading of Marx. I also have more time for the Austrian approach to economics than most members of the other heterodox schools, though my favourite Austrian is not Hayek or Mises but Schumpeter.
This very real financial crisis is in large measure the result of following the fundamentally mythical vision of how the economy operates that neoclassical economics has developed. It is all very well having a theory to defend capitalism against ideological attack, but it is not particularly bright to believe that ideology is reality, and then attempt to manage the economy using its guidance.
This is what economic theory has in fact done, and we are now reaping the whirlwind of its ignorance about the actual functioning of a market economy.
In future blogs I’ll turn increasingly to the topic of economic theory, because the dominance of economics by a flawed and fallacious theory has contributed in very large measure to this crisis. Avoiding a repeat of it, let alone minimising the damage to the economy during this crisis, will involve rejecting this nonsense theory once and for all.
Hats off to Martin Feil for raising this issue in the Australian media.






October 29th, 2008 at 9:47 am
It’s good to see an article denouncing neoclassicism in the mass media, it is certainly a topic not well known to the vast majority of Australians.
It will be fascinating to analyse, once neoclassicism is overthrown, how badly such pseudoscience has impacted upon our market economy over the decades. Neoclassicism should be added as an extra entry into the book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay.
Steve Keen has an excellent presentation on the fundamental flaw of neoclassicism, namely the notion of equilibrium, which can be found here: http://www.debunking-economics.com/Talks/Wowsernomics.mp3
Probably the most interesting feature of a new economic theory that actually understands markets will be disequilibrium price dynamics which truly understands the marginal productivity of every worker, so they will finally be compensated correctly in terms of income. It’s quite possible that the wages of the working class will rise dramatically while the wages of the managerial and capitalist classes will fall dramatically. Maybe we’ll find that a miner could earn more than an executive manager of a mining company.
Out of all the issues facing Australians (and others around the world), throwing out neoclassicism will probably prove to be the most beneficial step that people could take – but how many Australians understand economic theory? Therein lies the problem. Economic theory isn’t a well-known issue such as global warming or labour rights.
Keep up the good fight Steve!
October 29th, 2008 at 9:54 am
He has been following this line for a while http://www.theage.com.au/news/Opinion/A-20year-binge-that-cant-go-on/2005/03/08/1110160824809.html and that references an earlier article from 1995
One aspect I can’t understand of classical economics is how it can ever reconcile asset price bubbles with a rational market. If an asset price doubles in 10 years without any change in the cost of producing that asset there is obviously something fundamentally wrong with the market. Many of the attitudes also contradict the principles that “There is no such thing as a free lunch” or “if it seems to be too good to be true, it probably is”.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:36 am
As I said before, replace the word ‘market with ‘mob’ and the idea of rationality is an oxymoron.
Can imagine saying ‘the mob rationally rioted’, ‘the mob rationally burned a car’, ‘the mob rationally threw stones through the windows of a paediatrician, thinking that it was the same a as paedophile (that actually happened)’.
Ah, but with money transactions everyone magically becomes rational, all knowing and all sensible. And if you believe that load of all bollocks then you really are too silly to tie your own shoelaces.
There is a term for this: ‘magical thinking’, one of the classic cognitive traps.
Psychology explains why this happens, people are both tribal and copiers. In groups they reinforce a dominant idea that defines their identity. In this way mainstream economists are no different from a gang of white supremacists. Groups also take greater risks than individuals and are more optimistic.
Unfortunately optimism is the handmaiden of cognitive dissonence. When things do not turn out as expected CG cuts in, denying and reinterpreting reality. In this way groups can spin out of control far faster into gagaland than individuals.
People are incredibly suscepatble to group (and hierarchical) pressure. It is a rare individual that will maintain their equilibrium, and then they are usually excluded and rejected if they do (even by those within the group that may have doubts of their own). To dissent is to attack the very identity of the group which everyone has sold their souls to.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Ken,
Quite true in regards to the insanity of neoclassicism. If people were “rational”, markets were efficient, and debt represented the outcome of rational contracts, bubbles by definition could not occur, but obviously they do.
As time passes, bubbles become larger and larger: the Dot-Com stock market bubble was $US10 trillion at its peak and the current U.S. housing bubble $US8 trillion at its peak. You would think that conventional economists would think for a moment about this contradiction, but no. Like well-functioning religious fanatics, they dismiss readily observable reality in favor of adherence to neoclassical doctrine and clearly pseudoscientific models that are about as realistic as an astronomical model of the solar system with the sun, moon and gravity missing.
If neoclassicism were engineering, the bridge would collapse. Unfortunately for most people, it collapsed a very long time ago.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Yes. But.
For one thing, this Taylor rule use of interest rates to control inflation I think is newer than that: around 1991 at the earliest and seems to have started in NZ. It’s an experiment, and I think the results are plain to see. Too much debt.
Which is my 2nd point. Economists do themselves and everyone else a grave disservice by not doing what scientists do:
(a) clearly enunciate their theories and differences, and (b) propose experiments or make predictions that will support or falsify their theories. Most predictions we see are self-serving, or they are ideological, or they are ignorant. Where is that key forecast based directly on theory, and its test?
Does a general reader understand that classical economics itself has failed, or was it just implemented badly? Can you explain how your predictions arise directly from better theoretical underpinnings, rather than being just perma-bear? Do you have a better system, and how would we know?
This will become particularly critical as the consequences of debt unfold, and we look to a new set of experts to build us a better systems.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Offtopic: Steve, get your IT consultant to protect your webalizer statistics. A google search for “Wowsernomics.mp3″ reveals that links like “http://www.debunking-economics.com/webalizer/usage_200806.html” are freely accessible by anyone.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
OK – my current understanding is we’ve had a:
• Primitive tribal economy
• Slave economy
• Feudal economy
• Capitalist’s economy
Each had their rationale and metamorphosed into the next. In 500~ years time the capitalist economy will probably seem archaic.
[I could easily imagine it being viewed as somewhat a curious reflection, of tentative fragile emergent currently evolving human qualities: e.g. like selflessness. There is more evolutionary potential for me, buried in the human heart than in the human mind – well, at least that is my observation].
Anyway, money was invented to facilitate exchange, freed from its tie to gold and national currencies. Credit was invented and became a shadow of the real economy: so large and powerful that gambling with credit took over money creation from the money multiplier – the credit tail eventually wagging the real economy dog. Now the shadow economy is collapsing, and nobody knows what effects that will have on the real economy? We all await breathlessly! The real + shadow economies have more powerful an influence over human affairs than governments.
Is this roundabout correct?
October 29th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Feil’s acticle is inspiring. Thank’s for drawing it to our attention Steve.
I think the world is currently in the perfect frame of mind to question our policy makers and mainstream Australian media is the perfect place to start.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
jrbarch, I don’t think this is the end of capitalism as it isn’t the problem. The problems result from the actions of reserve banks and governments through lack of regulation and low interest rates.
Most governments have been happy to go along as it appears to solve problems in other parts of the economy like high unemployment. Mismanage everything else and then use the extra demand through debt creation to fix all the problems.
Unfortunately all the political solutions seem to involve more micromanagement rather than fixing the real problem that debt levels have been allowed too high.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Hi Steve,
Love your work! Keep it up – you are the only economic commentator who tells it like it is. Australia needs you. Rest assured you have plenty of admirers and supporters.
One question – you put the current foreign debt at $1.88 trillion. The article in the Age puts it at $0.65 trillion, but mentions there is more that is not on the current account. Does this imply that the capital/financial account is the difference of $1.23 trillion? Can I ask where you get your stats from? What proportion of the $1.23 trillion is made up of toxic debt structures such as MBS and synthetic CDO’s?
Cheers and good luck,
Paul Andrews
October 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Thanks Paul.
The 1.88 trillion figure is total private sector debt; $0.65 trillion is the component owed to overseas lenders.
I get my stats primarily from the RBA Statistical Bulletin and the US Federal Reserve Flow of Funds. But it’s augmented by data from all over the place–Case Shiller’s index, ABS data on house prices, the Global Financial Database for long term time series, OECD… It’s become a bit of a dog’s breakfast over time and I would love to engage a student to organise the whole lot one day.
As for the proportion in CDOs and the like, there’s a rub: it isn’t broken down in that detail in ABS/RBA data, and there’s a good chance that a lot of that crap is off balance sheet, and therefore invisible to official figures. I expect that in hindsight we’ll find there’s a lot more debt extant than even the horrifying official figures imply.
October 29th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Good job Steve, Good to see you and other economists are on to it.
“Rational market behaviour is a key assumption in free-market theory.”
The assumption is flawed as shown by the collapse of the market.
Blatant self interest of vested interests has all but ruined the possibility of a stable economic life for the broader community.
Disaster Capitalism:
The economic theory gripping most of the globe now is Trickle-down (supply side) economics.
The theory: if taxes are cut for high income earners they will invest more in business infrastructure and equity markets. As a result, goods will lower in price and create more jobs for the middle and lower classes.
It never happened. It was a delusion. Yet they (Libs and Labor) still try to push the idea.
Wikipedia ‘disaster capitalism’ and see where we are collectively headed.
Orchestrated raids on the public sphere is Disaster Capitalism. And it is a science.
Milton Friedman was its chief priest. His client disciples included Mao, Pinochet, Thatcher and Reagan. Judging by the policy decisions of Bush, Blair and Howard, no country is immune. The school of economies bequeathed by Friedman recently made inroads into the economic structure of Iceland. Need I say more?
Megadisasters
Three trademarks to the Science of Superprofits caused by Megadisasters (financial: market meltdowns, currency crisis, liquidity squeeze plus physical: disasters such as 2004 tsunami, New Orleans flooding, etc)
1. Privatisation of national assets
2. Government deregulation of business
3. Severe cutbacks in social spending
Aus is well on the way to achieving 100% compliance of the above three elements, all without a megadisaster. A megadisaster may finish the job off, UNLESS everyone is on to it.
Fairness lives in the heart, but not yet in the economy.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Good job Steve, I always look forward to Debtdeflation.com updates.
I like to look at this in terms of the hard science-soft science debate. As a experimental chemist/thermodynamicist by training, it is difficult enough to generate theoretical for simple steady-state equilibrium systems with limited, highly controlled varibles after conducting many many experiments. It is however, relatively straightforward to take the experimental data and generate empirical models (i.e. a mathematical fit to the data). Neoclassical economists develop theoretical models for complex, dynamic, non-equilibrium systems with many, many variables, and they do this without testing them against any data. You cannot have an economy in a jar, i.e. you cannot conduct experiments where you change only one variable to see its effect on the system. Any disciplie that has this limitation, I feel, must resign itself to empirical description of the system (i.e. curve fitting). The ability to conduct truly controlled experiments is what separates hard sciences from soft sciences, and soft sciences should aviod the temptation to go beyond the data.
October 30th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Steve
It’s good to see a gradual acceptance in the media of the issues you’ve been on about for a long time. As an economics graduate and onetime practicing economist (although I try not to publicize that too much, I have been concerned for a long time that the general public has not been served well in the economic policy area.
As a fresh faced graduate, I spent a couple of years with a certain well known government agricultural and commodities forecasting agency. I got out when it became apparent to me that the average economist in the place was not in touch with reality, but the forecasts based on unrealistic assumptions were feeding directly into policy making. For example, it was assumed that if the price of a commodity (let’s say wheat) went up by 10%, then the area planted would also go up by a fixed amount. There was no room in the model for factors such as the available arable area, the available capacity in terms of machinery, the flexibility of cropping rotations, the farmer’s desire to be a wheat grower, etc.
I’ve had a healthy skepticism of mainstream economists ever since.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Steve, could you tell us when your book “Finance and Economic Breakdown” is coming out? I’ll be first in line to get it.
I found your article on “The Nonlinear Dynamics of Debt Deflation” from Complexity International 1998 on the web. Is the model you described there the basis for what will be in your book? Have you published any developments on this model since that time (for instance multi-sector models with variable capital-to-output ratios)?
Anyway it looks like great stuff and I hope it won’t be too long before dynamic models like this are taught in universities instead of the useless intersecting-straight-lines that account for most of a BEcon degree.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Hi Gerard,
Good questions! I have developed extensions that are as yet unpublished, and yes that model will be the basis of the book. The multi-sectoral stuff is still yet to come unfortunately, but I think I’ve worked out how to do it.
However the book is a long way off. The success of Debunking Economics, and the debate it got me into over the nonsensical neoclassical “theory of the firm” distracted me for several years. Now there is a prospect of a more popular book–if that’s the right word!–prior to Finance and Economic Breakdown. That will be out next year, with FaEB probably on the shelves by 2011.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Steve, it’s great to have a public figure who is willing to be blunt about the seriousness of the crisis and to point to debt as the main problem. However, I cringe whenever you start talking about your proposed solutions to the problem.
Do you agree with Martin Feil’s comment: “The world economy in 2008 is a direct consequence of the view that markets should not be influenced by governments.”?
You say you “have time” for the Austrian view but your views do not seem Austrian. I’ve been reading about Austrian Economics lately on “>Mises.org and LewRockwell.com in order to try to understand the current crisis. The Austrians predicted this crisis and have a plausible argument about it’s causes. They would say that we do not have a free market economy at the moment. They would argue that the government interferes too much already and that further interferences are exacerbating the current problems.
Austrian Economics seems to go hand-in-hand with Individual Liberty, Libertarianism. This seems to bring the debate into the realms of Ideology and Philosophy. Your mention of Carl Marx also brings the discussion in to the philosophical realm.
Isn’t communism dead as an idea? Do you think we should end capitalism? Do you have a critique of the Austrian view? The Austrians advocate “sound money” (i.e. “100%” reserve gold standard). Do you agree that this would have prevented the current crisis with it’s excessive debt?
I should mention that I am not an economist (or a philosopher). I am a concerned Australian, a saver, who has been trying to understand for the last decade or more what has driven his fellow Australians to accept the fallacy that “house prices never go down”. So far the best explanation appears to be the Austrian Theory of the Business/Credit Cycle. The best solution seems to be a return to a gold standard – even some EU representatives are talking about it… However, I am searching for opposing views and critiques.
October 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Hi Steve,
How likely do you think is the possibility of a big money inflation in Australia that whould benefit everyone that has a debt and would hurt badly people that keep their savings in the bank?
With a very big money inflation the actual prices of the properties will be brought down compared to the prices of other goods which is what everyone agrees that should happen anyway. But such a case would benefit people that have already purchased a house and not kept cash.
Don’t you think that the goverments around the world would much more prefer such as an outcome as it would make a far less people angry and unhappy? To me, it seems that this is what the Australian government is trying to do.
October 30th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Hey Steven Shaw,
Austrian cycle theory proposes that banks should tighten their money supply during crashes – causing bank runs so that only the strongest banks will survive (which is pretty much what the Fed did in 1929…). In its prescriptions, it’s something of a recipe for disaster in the name of economic purity. There’s obviously some kind of case for central bank inflation courtesy of Greenspan having created the current bubble, but the Austrian cure is worse than the disease.
A gold standard would tie the rate of economic growth to the amount of yellow metal we were able to dig out of the ground, because the amount of money (gold) in the economy has to match the amount of goods and services. Unless you had a fluctuating fractional reserve system, in which case why bother. Gold is just another commodity. Try substituting the word “potato” for gold every time you read an advocation of the gold standard, and you’ll rapidly realise the problem.
Re: is Marx/communism dead, don’t you think it curious that economists constantly proclaim “Marx is dead”, over and over and over, every year? A bit voodoo-ish, perhaps? If marx’s ideas were dead, would it be so necessary to readvise us of this all the time
?
October 30th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Thank God some one else is saying this!! Ive not been following Economic theory much since I left University 25 years ago. Having said that I have wailed to all that would listen that current policies and direction are wrong and based on flawed precepts. The consumer and the market are not rational even with complete information economic modelling only works in a broad sense. Before applying any mathematical modelling we MUST remember that Economics is a SOCIAL science. Psychology should be a closer partner in economic theory, Mathematics and Econometrics only work in a limited manner .Im still hearing people saying that the property market is a good place to invest right now. The information is all available, we can see that most people cannot afford housing at the current prices or are pushed to the margin in doing so. But they say upply is short so prices have to go up. This only works if the demand side has the funds. The $7,000 or 14,000 extra that Ruddy just primed the pump with may ameliorate any fall (I believe this is his intent but he cant say that) but fall it will. The only difference of opinion I have is that the fall will be 40% in real terms over 2-3 years. With roughly 10% having already ocurred and 10-15% being eaten away by inflation over that period. Ie in 2-3 years actual prices will be off by another 15-20%. The problem is many recent purchasers are in denial that they may well have made a poor decision and the obvious impact of such a truth being accepted is a panic with ramifications to our own banking sector. Im betting we will get a “soft” divestment and the 7-14g that Ruddy pumped into the market and some commentators are stating will “just increase prices” will allow the market to absorb a few more sellers who need to sell and make for an orderly market retreat rather than a rout. Unfortunately many of those who do buy will be those most at risk of job loss or financially vunerable and they will be selling back into that market in a few years * End Diatribe*
October 30th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Hi James Haughton!
Actually, this is not exactly accurate. Within a certain faction of the Austrian School, they would propose sound money (gold standard) and 100% reserve banking system. This implies no monetary policy and no central banking. Consequently, the idea of tightening/loosening monetary policy is irrelevant.
The late professor Murray Rothbard would have this to answer in his book “What has government done to your money?”
October 30th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
In addition, if Austrians would have to perform monetary policy, they would tighten very much earlier to prick asset price bubbles (instead of targeting inflation as central bankers do today).
In other words, Austrians would have raised interest rates much earlier.
What the Austrians would do in respond to this crisis is to let free market cleanse the system of mal-investments by letting asset prices, prices and wages fall. The big mistake made by the government during the Great Depression was to made laws to prevent wages from falling. Consequently, businesses fail en masse, increasing the severity of the severe recession into a depression. In other words, they would initially do nothing and not intervene in order for the market to find its own level.
One Austrian economist, Wilhelm Ropek recommended (in his book “Crises and Cycles”) reflation only after the cleansing of delfation has done its work.
October 30th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
James, the Austrians think that Marxism is alive and well. I don’t know more about communism than the general consensus that it failed following the fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of the USSR. Is there a reason to look into it?
I know gold is a commodity but it’s hardly a potato
.
Theoretically, it seems possible to avoid gold and instead have a “paper” currency with 100% reserve requirement, no central bank and inability for the government to inflate. Theoretically this achieves the same ends. I hear that the problem is that the government finds it difficult to resist printing new money. With gold, the government would have to take up jobs digging in the earth in order to inflate.
I do have concerns that a gold standard would somehow limit “economic growth” (by which I mean prosperity). The jury is still out on the topic for me. However, if you mean this fake prosperity of the last few years where people racked up debt and spent their home “equity” then you can keep it.
October 30th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Paul, thanks for the link to Wowsernomics. It was a great talk. I agree with Steve Keen that economics is like religion (or ideology or philosophy). I am not certain that it can be completely addressed mathematically i.e. how the human factor by modelled accurately. I had assumed current models of the economy included factors of uncertainty (but I guess they do not or are not adequate). Very interesting stuff.
I still don’t know what the idea of economic equilibrium is. The Austria’s don’t seem to go on about it. The Mises Institute recently produced a “Stabilisation is Chaos T-Shirt. They seem to be believe that the market “chaos” is the right path to pricing things.
October 30th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Steven,
What needs to happen is for neoclassical (and other schools of thought) static analyses to be thrown into the expired-date trash compactor of science, and replaced with dynamic disequilibrium analysis. Using algebra and calculus isn’t going to cut it when it comes to modelling a clearly complex market economy. In the Wowsernomics talk, Steve ends with the words from the following journal article – what really needs to be done:
“The real problem with my proposal for the future of economics departments is that current economics and finance students typically do not know enough mathematics to understand (a) what econophysicists are doing, or (b) to evaluate the neo-classical model (known in the trade as ‘The Citadel’) critically enough to see, as Alan Kirman put it, that ‘No amount of attention to the walls will prevent The Citadel from being empty’.”
“I therefore suggest that the economists revise their curriculum and require that the following topics be taught: calculus through the advanced level, ordinary differential equations (including advanced), partial differential equations (including Green functions), classical mechanics through modern nonlinear dynamics, statistical physics, stochastic processes (including solving Smoluchowski–Fokker–Planck equations), computer programming (C, Pascal, etc.) and, for complexity, cell biology. Time for such classes can be obtained in part by eliminating micro- and macro-economics classes from the curriculum. The students will then face a much harder curriculum, and those who survive will come out ahead. So might society as a whole.”
McCauley, Joseph L. (2006). “Response to ‘Worrying Trends in Econophysics’”, Physica A, 371, pp. 601-609
October 30th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Banks have allowed and encouraged little Aussie battler investors to rack up a debt of “$700 billion and much of that is in US dollars…”
The Liberal govt was strangely numb in silence during this event. In fact, one could say their tax cuts, changes to CGT and speculative instruments such as interest only loans and negative gearing assisted in the debt binge.
This modern form of economic sabotage marks a high point in the genesis of bankcraft and “financial timebombs of debt” that have been dropped into an unsuspecting economy.
What will be the trigger? Currency crisis? Forced interest rate increases emanating out of the US? Local stockmarket in further freefall?
You will know it is on when the IMF comes to the rescue of the little Aussie battler with schemes to bail us out of debt.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Hi Steve, unrelated to this section, I wanted to give you an interesting webaddress http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
October 30th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Hi Phil,
Yes, I listened to the podcast. It’s very interesting. I’d like to be involved in such an effort.
I don’t think you have to throw everything out though but you can test current hypotheses against the magic-dynamic-model of the real economy. It would be great to be asking it “what if” questions and what not.
Even with a near perfect simulation of all humans on earth, wouldn’t we still need to ask it the right questions? Somehow I imagine that our ideology will still affect what those questions are.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Hi Steven!
According to Austrian School thought, a fixed money supply (i.e. 100% reserve gold standard) will not limit economic growth.
When the economy grow (i.e. increased productivity due to fruits of real capital formation & investment), it will be reflected in the increased purchasing power of money.
We have already seen this phenomena with our eyes: the rise of Chinese manufacturing powerhouse over the decades has allowed Western countries to enjoy low rates of price inflation. Over the decade, we have seen falling prices of ’stuffs’ like electronic gadgets, white goods, clothing, footwear, etc, all thanks to China. The rise of Chinese productivity contributed to the relative increase purchasing power of money. That happened despite the increase in the supply of money all over the world.
Another example: look at the computer industry. As innovation grew by leaps and bounds over the decades, prices of computers and computing power has been falling in real terms tremendously.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Hi Steven,
There would be aspects of schools of thought that may indeed be worth keeping, but the worse of them all is neoclassicism. A good first step is allowing pluralism within economics departments at universities, allowing the re-emergence of Austrianism, Post-Keynesianism, Neo-Marxism, Institutionalism, etc.
Eventually this “democracy” of competing economic schools of thought could evolve into an economics that really understands the dynamics and complexities of markets, led by econophysicists , complexity and evolutionary theorists, system analysts, engineers, mathematicians, with phycologists and sociologists to correctly model human behaviour in a mode far better than that of neoclassicals.
While these specialists can figure these technicalities out, it will always be up to the general population to ask questions about what they want from an economy – wants and needs that will hopefully override commercial concerns.
One thing that all economies around the world lack is democracy – we have it in the political sphere, why not in the economic sphere? Under corporate capitalism, an economic system much different to a genuine market system, societies’ resources are increasingly being dominated by undemocratic, totalitarian communist institutions called corporations which, by law, must act like a sociopath in order to increase the wealth of already wealthy individuals. Probably the defining issue in the economy is: do we want this to happen and keep on happening?
As far as I know, no economic school of thought deals with these sorts of power dynamics which must be addressed.
October 30th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Hello Contrarian Investors’ Journal
I do not see this as example of Austrian economic theory.
Your first example the cheap chinese cargo has been achieved by Communist Chinese government control of workforce and exchange rate. This has been combined with lack of concern for the debt bubble which grew as Oz and US etc governments allowed the effective dumping of this cargo and de-industrialising of their own countries under ne-classical dogma.
Your second (computers)is the effect of economies of scale as well as the Communist Chinese cargo availabitity.
The acompanied accumulation of debt in this process has been contrary to Austrian theory. We haven’t actually paid for this cargo — yet.
From this it appears that Marxists Maoist economics has a place in this prosperity for the wealthy (west) slavery for the chinese example.
October 31st, 2008 at 7:21 am
Hi BrightSpark!
These examples are not meant to ‘prove’ Austrian theory. They are examples to show that the supply of money supply does not have to increase in order to ‘keep up’ with long run economic growth. That’s because the purchasing power of money can adjust upwards in response to increase in productivity. Who says we have to increase money supply to keep up with economic growth in order to maintain price ’stability’? Why not just let the purchasing power of money increase as in the case of China and the computer industry?
I think it is over the top to attribute the rise of Chinese productivity over the decades to solely dictatorial command and control.
First, China right now is hardly communist today. In some ways, they are more capitalists that Australia. Take a visit at Shanghai. One friend of mine visited the Chinese resort of Hainan and I was disgusted at the money-making mentality there. I prefer Australia.
Secondly, a real Marxist ideology and a stock market is incompatible.
That’s the whole idea of economic growth isn’t it?
October 31st, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Steven Shaw,
. I was more referring to the repeated claims that marxist analysis is dead, buried, disproved, etc. There is a pretty good Marxist analysis of the current crisis here: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7382297202053077236&hl=en
The Von Mises people look for Marxists under their beds every night, and if they don’t find any, they make one up
and a pretty funny one here:
http://ehrenreich.blogs.com/barbaras_blog/2008/10/report-from-the-socialist-international-conspiracy.html
Certainly the idea that all business should be centralised in and run by the state is dead and buried. But the point of marxism is that the people who create the wealth (workers, although Steve has a different interpretation in his work on Marx) should control its distribution. Doing that through state structures didn’t work. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done at the level of the enterprise, e.g. Mondragon, in a free market context.
Contrarian,
I’m sure you have come across all the critiques of Austrian thinking stretching from Sraffa to Krugman via Friedman.
I’ll just say that there’s no evidence that a gold standard ever prevented booms and busts in the past. The eventual result was that JP Morgan became the central bank of the USA. Not particularly desirable.
A fixed currency supply is a recipe for bank runs (unless they have 100% reserves, in which case what do they loan out?) and, owing to the fact that phillips-curve like relationships do in fact exist (see the work of Paul Ormerod) high unemployment.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Hi James Haughton!
I agree with you on that. There’s no denying that booms and busts still occur under a gold standard. If you look at the 19th century America, there’s bubbles in railroads, for example.
But if you take a look at history, all booms (except this one) are confined in either a region or a sector of the economy. Today’s boom (2001-2007) is different. It spread througout all over the world (figuratively) and infected all asset class (bonds, stocks, property, commodities and even artwork) simultaneously. So, when the eventual bust comes, it’s going to affect every corner of the world in all asset class at the same time.
That’s the difference.
Under a gold standard with 100% reserve banking, this global, synchronised, all-asset-class bubble cannot occur to the point where it is now.
Lending is still possible under 100% reserve banking. An example of lending under the 100% reserve banking is the good old fashioned term deposits.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:50 pm
To add to what I just said…
The point of a 100%-reserve gold standard (or fixed money supply or whatever) is *NOT* to prevent bubbles. The only way to prevent bubbles is to make every human being rational. The nearest possible way to make humans ‘rational’ (note the quote in the previous word) is to take away all human liberty and free will. For example, there’s one country in this world which is totally immune to the global credit crisis. That country is North Korea.
The point of gold standard is to let bubbles be pricked sooner rather than later through natural free market mechanism.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
G’day Contrarian
“I think it is over the top to attribute the rise of Chinese productivity over the decades to solely dictatorial command and control.”
I do not think so. The Chinese Communists have controlled the exchange rate and in so doing created a low cost source of cargo for the west. They also created and control the skilled and highly skilled workforce to the extent that they now have virtual technologist slaves. The result of all this in huge demand in the west resulting in and complimented by enormous economies of scale. Given the slaves and the market western technologists could have done better but we have social justice and added to that neo-classical economics as a boat anchor.
Curiously however and even at this 10 times plus reduced (yuan) exchange rate we still could not pay for it by the “excess of our own production”. Because of this we have been borrowing for 33 years and racked up a debt of $700billion. These borrowings have inflated a huge bubble. This enormouse debt accumulation with corporatisation amplification is more Australian economics than Austrian economics.
In your reference to Shanghai you seem to be confusing poverty with communism. Shanghai is not like cold war Stalingrad because Chinese Communism is proving sucessful. But this sucess is in peril now because they have sent thier customers broke and bankrupt customers cannot purchase more cargo.
Cheers
October 31st, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Hi Brightspark!
Your words are of an extremist.
I really encourage you to visit China for yourself, live there for say, 1 year. Immerse yourself with the people there,talk to the people on the streets and make Chinese friends from all walks of life. That’ll really open up your eyes.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Hi Contrarian,
Good point. I whole heartedly agree.
Anarcho-capitalism manages risk and mitigates bubbles and bursts by having no central point of failure, allowing bad investments to fail and through people having various time preferences.
It’s the most resiliant and balanced system, since no one entity can affect the entire system enough to destabilize it.
It does not require rational people, nor does it require complete information. It just requires people accept the non-aggression axiom. (It doesn’t matter if people adhere to it, just that they accept that it’s the founding principle)
Thanks,
Uriah
October 31st, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Hi contrarian
I am curious, what type of extremist do you consider me to be?
I am not talking about social interaction. I have been there and met people on the streets this is not the issue. I have heard compaints from people there and seen farmers using antiquated equipment. I have Chinese friends I am not talking about the people I am talking about their government and the government’s control of the Chinese economy and now the world economy. My eyes are wide open.
Fact 1
China has a communist goverment.
Fact 2
The Chinese Goverment controls the exchange rate keeping its value at less than 10% of the realistic value.
Fact 3
The production largely takes place off the tourist path in factories manned by people from regional centres who live in controlled dormitories and are paid about $50US per week. Virtual slaves. The conditions in these factories would not comply with Australian regulations.
Fact 4
They have little or no social justice.
Fact 5
Many Chinese come to Australia. These skilled people prefer to work as waiters or taxi drivers in Australia rather than factory slaves in Chine.
Fact 6
To buy the cargo we have accumulated a huge debt because our governments have not managed the economy in a competant manner.
These are the issues.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Hi Brightspark!
They are Communists as much as the Pope is Muslim. How strong is Marxism in China? In China, university students have to study Mao and Marxist ideology through rote learning. But how much do you know about what they think about these ideologies?
This is call a currency peg, which is hardly confined to totalitarian governments. Even Australia used to peg its currency to British pound and then changed to a moving peg to the US dollar.
This may be true for some. But you cannot label the entire nation as a country of slaves and brush off China into the same league of North Korea. There are also hundreds of millions of Chinese living as non-slaves. Even among the several hundreds of millions of peasants in the rural country-side, although they may not enjoy standards of living as high as their city-folks, more reasonable people will not label them as “slaves” as you put it.
Still, it’s a far cry from totalitarism of North Korea.
Have you even heard about the recent reforms that the Chinese central governments are introducing, including land reforms and labour laws?
Do you think factory slaves even have the option to migrate to Australia? You’re talking as if a Chinese ’slave’ chose to migrate to Australia to escape slavery. How many Chinese friends have you made in Australia?
How about turning the eye to ourselves instead of blaming the government. Why on earth are we, as a nation, accumulating debt to consume and consume and consume?
October 31st, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Hi Brightspark!
I don’t know what type of extremist you are. But the tone of your language, exaggerations that you use, indiscriminate labeling of groups/entity (as if that entity is a massive monolithic blob), reducing the complexity and subtlties of issues into discrete black and white, is very suggestive of where you stand.
That’s why I recommend that you really get to know people from China, see the country with your own eyes, hear the people with your own ears and learn as much about the country as you can, instead of getting the distorted information/opinions indirectly.