He analyses long term Kondratieff cycles and long political hegomonic cycles where the US power declines.

‘We can assert with confidence that the present system cannot survive. …This will not be a capitalist system but it may be far worse (even more polarising and hiercharical) or much better (relatively democratic and relatively egalitarian) than such a system. The choice of a new system is the major worldwide political struggle of our times.’

Also, I post a series of critical analysis from left historian Humphrey McQueen.

there are links to the
Monthly Review Press economic analysis.

The change in revenue is a very important point. Reduced tax revenue and increased social security payments, so the surplus is going to disappear rather quickly. That is what you expect in a recession but that is no reason to spend it on vote-buying. I’m betting on Rudd winning the next election and then discovering that there isn’t enough money. How large can they make the deficit ?

Good point. I’ve noticed that my super fund reports gross earnings in one column and net earnings in another. When gross earnings are positive, net earnings are lower. When gross earnings are negative, net earnings are higher! Does this mean that the super fund actually claims against losses?

If so, they might be sucking money out of the Treasury, not just failing to contribute?
http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/1559/supersm1.jpg

I’m no superannuation guru, can somebody set me straight?

What has occurred to me though, is that the Government was receiving 15% of all Superfund revenue. Now that almost all funds are down. The Aust. Government has a huge hole in its budget. Wait until the papers and opposition wake up to that one. I don’t know how big that number was, but it must be in the billions.

As unemployment rises and mining revenue falls off the cliff, the budget will start to resemble a sieve.

The Govt is still talking up budget surpluses. Dream on! How stupid was that anyway to convince the public that responsible governments always ran a budget surplus. That was one of Costello’s nonsense mantras.

Henderson’s attempt at mild ridicule of you, and his usual swatting of the ABC & 60 Minutes in passing, is another.

To be taken in stride. I doubt a debate of your reasons for selling your property will be as edifying as your previous pronouncements on the bubble economy, which simply will not get air-time.

I do not think Henderson’s conclusions were so harsh, he acknowledges you may well be right.

Given you clearly have been so far, keep up the good work.

I’ve been reading Roubini for a year now. Keen’s position is pretty much in line with his albeit with a lag. I’m rather certain that avoiding a house price debacle like that afflicting the US and UK is uppermost in KRudds mind. Roubini was pillaried as late as June this year for his extremist views by the US MSM that despised any economist who was forthright enough to tell it really like it is. If Steve has done his homework (which no doubt he has), he has nothing to worry about.Future event’s here will bear him out. I would offer however that responding to these types of media jibes demeans Steve’s position.

Just like Dragnet;
“Just the facts, ma’am”

Where did Keating earn a PhD?

Has Terry McCrann read any of Steve’s work? He seems to require “elegance” encapsualted in one line of cliches.

Are there any credable journalists out there who can confine themselves to accuratly reporting on news items. If there were perhaps their editorial quips would not be so stupid.

It is a real shame when genuine academic rigor and concern for fellow Australians is so threatening to the establishment that they must attempt to trample it down.

It really is time that the entire economics profession – including those employed by the vested interests – stands united and says enough is enough! Freedom of thought and debate is what is needed at this juncture, rather than character assassinations on those that display courage and humility by standing up and voicing their honest and considered opinion!!

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcYqArJFMJgA.asf

Truly impressive description by Roubini. I highly recommend his website, rgemonitor.com

I’m still waiting to understand exactly what trigger the Minsky Moment for Australia. However, I do take the adjustment process suggested by Merrill’s that a structural de-leveraging may be occurring.

They point out the relationship b/w credit & GDP prior to deregulation. They point out Three distinct phases of credit growth since 1984. Deregulation – Supply Side; Low Inflation & Low Rates – Demand Side; China & Terms of Trade.

Can anyone think of what may drive Phase IV ?

If not, then how will the adjustment occur ? Slowly, with 20% real washed off over three – five years ?

Or like Steve Keen suggests ?

Steve, Roubini even makes mention of a “Minsky Moment”.

There’s no dispute from me about the possibility of financial systems spiraling out of control… however, in Australia, while you have clearly demonstrated the potential, what I’m looking to hear is the catalyst event that will trigger the decline that locks in *expected* capital losses that push housing into a decline *all over the country*.

I greatly appreciate your commentary and think your promotion of Debunking Economics and Unstable Financial Systems deserves a lot more credit than it receives. That is, I personally believe that you should be taken seriously by academia, as opposed to only by the media, who may be looking for a headline.

However, please protect your future position by moderating your claims.

That is, make it clear that you are talking about a real decline in the residential property asset class. Make it clear that an adjustment process may be orderly and all policy initiatives possible to permit slow erosion of real wealth – slowly easing the pressure rather than hastening a collapse – should be undertaken.

Then you’ll be undeniably right, your intellectual frameworks will be looked upon more faviourably & shrill commentators with vested interests & narrow perspectives will not be able to

The Merrill Report can be found if you take a free trial on the roubini website. I don’t mention because I like Merrill, the fact they sold their company in a rush is testimony to their financial management and is something that ought never be forgotten. I just mention it because it presents the case (return to long run averages over time) that cannot be ignored.

If you can show what is our Minsky Moment, then please do go ahead.

I have control of two properties, and the one that is not the family home is being prepared for sale.

So, with those disclosures, please take my comments as encouragement. I’ve also read your book, and enjoyed it’s illuminating pathway. But then again, I’m a fan of all things dis-equilibria, including book by chemistry noble prize winner, ilya prigonone, by title of The End of Certainty, which argues for a quantum mechanical formulation that does not permit for the reversibility of time, as implied by classical formulations…

Good Luck Steve. Don’t over-reach and you’ll be vindicated. They have moved onto trying to take out your credibility with sweeping blows, perhaps because they do not wish your underlying messages to be examined in detail.

All the best,
Furball.